Landslide susceptibility maps are widely used in land management and urban planning to delimit potentially problematic areas. In this article we improve their reliability by acting on the frequency ratio method and map classification systems. For the frequency ratio method, we have worked with continuous variables and established intervals grouped by probability according to the landslide inventory and based on the characteristics of the data rather than on standard divisions. For map classification systems, we have compared the efficacy of conventional classifications and those based on the concepts of sensitivity and specificity, with the specificity classifications being supported by the information offered by available comparative data. Both strategies make it possible to avoid subjective and repetitive procedures that are alien to the nature of the data being assessed. We present a case study in the 23,000 km2 Region of Valencia where a total of 48 different susceptibility maps were generated. We demonstrate that the methods applied in this study to calculate the frequency ratio provide an improvement in specificity in areas of high susceptibility while maintaining good sensitivity. In particular, the Area Under Curve (AUC) values increase from 0.67 for the conventional methods to 0.76 with the methods proposed in this work. This improvement is transferred to susceptibility mapping much more clearly when classifications that incorporate sensitivity, and especially specificity parameters, are used.
The risk posed by natural hazards has gained growing attention in recent decades, largely due to the intensification and recurrence of extreme events, with the climate crisis identified as the primary driver. Landslide risk is no exception, although its impacts are generally less evident than those of floods or, particularly, severe droughts. In both cases, urban expansion has further exacerbated the problem, especially since the mid-twentieth century in more developed regions. This residential growth often took place in poorly regulated settings, particularly during its early stages, leading to the occupation of areas that were environmentally, culturally, or from a landscape perspective unsuitable, and frequently exposed to natural hazards. In fact, the risk of landslides affecting buildings located on susceptible terrain can largely be attributed to ineffective land management, often resulting from the absence of specific regulations. This study introduces a set of risk indices that serve as objective tools for the dynamic assessment of landslide risk in extensive and spatially fragmented territories divided into local entities. Based on these indices, criteria are proposed to evaluate the degree of risk and the adequacy of its management within each local entity, considering the evolution of urban development. Finally, a classification system is presented that organizes all cases according to their severity, offering a decision-support tool for public authorities tasked with ensuring effective land management.
Assessing the size and situation of the population exposed to natural hazards is a fundamental step in addressing natural hazard management and emergency planning. Although much progress has been made in recent years in population geolocation by competent public bodies, gathering historical data beyond the present century to learn about the sequential evolution the affected population has experienced remains a difficult task. The recent publication of a historical population grid with adequate resolution allows progress to be made in resolving this problem. This paper is based on these data together with a map of landslide susceptibility in the study area and on the abundant resources provided by the Spanish Cadastre on dates of construction, surface area, and location of built plots. The size of the residential area built in the risk zone and its affected population was calculated since the early 1900s and with a decennial sequence. The risk to the population has been found to be stable or decreasing slightly over the entire historical series in the study area. However, the intensive tourism in some coastal municipalities in the north of Alicante has led to the construction of holiday homes in unsuitable locations in mountainous areas and with it an appreciable increase in risk.
The risk posed by natural hazards has gained growing attention in recent decades, largely due to the intensification and recurrence of extreme events, with the climate crisis identified as the primary driver. Landslide risk is no exception, although its impacts are generally less evident than those of floods or, particularly, severe droughts. In both cases, urban expansion has further exacerbated the problem, especially since the mid-twentieth century in more developed regions. This residential growth often took place in poorly regulated settings, particularly during its early stages, leading to the occupation of areas that were environmentally, culturally, or from a landscape perspective unsuitable, and frequently exposed to natural hazards. In fact, the risk of landslides affecting buildings located on susceptible terrain can largely be attributed to ineffective land management, often resulting from the absence of specific regulations. This study introduces a set of risk indices that serve as objective tools for the dynamic assessment of landslide risk in extensive and spatially fragmented territories divided into local entities. Based on these indices, criteria are proposed to evaluate the degree of risk and the adequacy of its management within each local entity, considering the evolution of urban development. Finally, a classification system is presented that organizes all cases according to their severity, offering a decision-support tool for public authorities tasked with ensuring effective land management.