The impact of COVID-19 on the economy was devastating. Small businesses typically have few resources to fight against such adversity. Many businesses remained closed for some time during the pandemic period, resulting in significant consequences for people in terms of jobs, income and life. The objective of this research is to identify the factors that contributed to increasing company failures during the pandemic. Furthermore, this study aims to verify whether the size of the companies, the sectors of economic activity in which they operate and their geographic location influence enterprise failure. This article analyzes the survival of 8931 small businesses from 2017 to 2023, in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study applied a survival analysis using the Kaplan–Meier procedure, complemented with the Cox procedure, to determine the effects of the size of companies, sector activity and location on the survival time. The results indicate that survival is much higher in small companies with large revenues that are located in the Campaign and West Frontier regions, as well as in the Northeast, North, Production, South, Taquari, and Rio Pardo Valleys regions, whereas the survival rates were extremely lower in the commercial sector and in financial intermediation activities. In the second analysis restricted to the commerce sector, the data highlighted the retail activities, accommodation and food activities sectors as the most affected in terms of overall survival. The results indicated that the survival of small business remained relatively strong during the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling the pertinent support from the government. The smallest business with revenues under USD 15,576 (BRL 81,000) per year were the most affected, with only 39% survival after 7 years. Some activities and some regions suffered more than others, emphasizing the need for special attention from authorities in future catastrophes.

Hydrometeorological hazards are currently a cause for great concern worldwide. Droughts are among the most recurrent events, causing significant losses. This article presents a study on the duration of droughts in the southernmost state of Brazil, which has a large agricultural sector and experiences frequent drought events. The approach focuses on the economic recovery time of municipalities affected by the drought in 2020, 2022 and 2023, using the total value of invoices issued within each municipality between companies and from companies to consumers. The Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox regression models are applied, incorporating covariates such as the size of the municipality, geographic location, and primary economic activity sector. The results show that the longest recovery period is concentrated in small cities, particularly in those where agriculture or livestock is the primary economic activity. The greatest resilience is observed in cities within the metropolitan region, where economic activity is more concentrated in services and industry and where populations are generally larger. The study identifies that after each drought event, at least 75% of municipalities achieve economic recovery within 3 months. These findings support better planning for both drought prevention and impact reduction and they are relevant for the development of economic and social policies.

The Menor Preço Brasil application, based on a version developed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, was launched in 2019 with the aim of expanding digital services to citizens. This application provides information on the nearest establishments and their product prices based on issued invoices. With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, this application adapted its service to facilitate access to prevention products. We are not aware of any other similar government application that uses individual invoice data to support citizens in finding products closer to them at better prices. This study aims to verify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of the Menor Preço Brasil app service. To this end, it investigates both the correlation between confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Brazil and the changes in the application’s functionalities with the variation in citizens’ queries to the application. It is a quantitative approach. For this purpose, Bai and Perron’s method of identifying multiple structural breaks and regression models are employed. The results indicate five structural breaks in the number of queries to the application, and that a 1% increase in COVID-19 cases led to a 0.2% increase in queries. These results confirm that user behavior related to the Menor Preço Brasil application was influenced not only by changes in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases but also by those in the app’s features and inflation rates. The literature also tends to consider the relevance of the relative effects of risk aversion on behavior, especially in the relationship with the tax authorities. This study reinforces the position of the initial relevance of risk aversion and when trust gradually strengthening the aversion to losses diminishes. The public sector has progressively increased the availability of digital services over time, and the results of this study underscore their significance in coping with extreme situations, such as pandemics, natural disasters, and other challenges to accessing goods and services.

One way to reduce inequality and poverty is to promote tax justice. In 2021, the government of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, implemented a program (the Devolve-ICMS Program) that refunds consumption tax to low-income citizens (cashback). This study aims to evaluate the impacts of this Program using a differences-in-differences model and having, as response variables, the monthly sum of electronic invoices issued to the Program’s beneficiaries, as well as their value. The database used includes all invoices issued to the target population during the 12 months before the Program’s implementation and the 14 months after its implementation, resulting in 7.7 million records. To receive the tax refund, the eligible population must pick up a Citizen Card, made available by the state government, which was done by a significant part of this population. The treatment group is composed of eligible citizens who have the Card, whereas the control group comprises eligible citizens who do not have it. The results show that the Program is effective, as it has reduced tax pressure on poor people and increased both the number of invoices issued and their value.

Natural disasters are becoming increasingly frequent, as evidenced by the catastrophic floods in 2024, which marked the worst disaster in the history of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. This article explores fiscal sustainability through the budgetary capacity of municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul within the framework of Brazilian fiscal federalism. To assess this capacity, an indicator was employed to measure the proportion of current revenues allocated to current expenses and investments, alongside the degree of autonomy in resource transfers. The findings reveal significantly constrained fiscal sustainability among municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, hindering their ability to respond to climate events in the region. Of the 453 municipalities analyzed, only 19% demonstrated sufficient budgetary space. Among those officially declared in a state of calamity, a mere 10% were eligible for a budgetary response. The economic losses associated with the disaster are estimated at 88.9 billion BRL, while collectively the municipalities of RS dedicated 5.6 billion BRL to investments in 2023. Given limited fiscal capacity and the enormous scale of losses from natural disasters, this article argues for financial solutions aimed at prevention and mitigation, involving federal cooperation and greater budgetary and financial commitments at the national level.