The propagation of electromagnetic waves beyond the line of sight can be caused by atmospheric ducts, which are significant concerns in the fields of radar and communication. This paper utilizes data from seven automatic weather stations and five radio-sounding stations to statistically analyze the characteristics of the atmospheric ducts in the northwest region of the South China Sea (SCS). After verifying the practicality of numerical analysis data from NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF in studying atmospheric ducts using measured data, we analyzed the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of the height of the regional evaporation duct and the bottom height of the elevated duct. The study found that the NCEP CFSv2 data accurately capture the evaporation duct height and duct occurrence rate in the study area, and the elevated duct bottom height calculated from ERA5 and the measured data have good consistency. The occurrence rate and height of the evaporation duct in coastal stations in the northwest of the SCS vary significantly by month, demonstrating clear monthly distribution patterns; conversely, changes in the Xisha station are minimal, indicating good temporal uniformity. For lower atmospheric ducts, the difference in occurrence rates between 00:00 and 12:00 (UTC) is negligible. The occurrence probability of elevated ducts in the Beibu Gulf area is relatively high, mainly concentrated from January to April, and the Xisha area is dominated by surface ducts without foundation layers, mainly concentrated from June to August. Monsoons play a critical role in the generation and evolution of atmospheric ducts in the northwest of the SCS, with the height of the evaporation duct increasing and the bottom height of the elevated duct decreasing after the onset of the summer monsoon. In the end, we simulated electromagnetic propagation loss under different frequencies and radiation elevation angles in various duct environments within a typical atmospheric duct structure.

The propagation of electromagnetic waves beyond the line of sight can be caused by atmospheric ducts, which are a significant concerns in the fields of radar and communication. This paper utilizes data from seven automatic stations and five radio-sounding stations to statistically analyze the characteristics of the atmospheric ducts in the northwest region of the South China Sea (SCS). After verifying the practicality of numerical analysis data from NCEP CFSv2 and ERA5 in studying atmospheric ducts using measured data, we analyzed the space-time distribution characteristics of the height of the regional evaporation duct and the bottom height of the elevated duct. Using the parabolic equation model, we simulated electromagnetic propagation loss under different frequencies and radiation elevation angles in both uniform and non-uniform duct environments within a typical atmospheric duct structure. The study found that the NCEP CFSv2 data accurately captures the evaporation duct height and duct occurrence rate in the study area, and the elevated duct bottom height obtained from the inversion of ERA5 and the measured data has a good consistency. The occurrence rate and height of evaporation duct in coastal stations in the northwest of the SCS vary significantly by month, demonstrating clear monthly distribution patterns. Conversely, changes in the Xisha station are minimal, indicating good temporal uniformity. For lower atmospheric ducts, the difference in occurrence rates between 00:00 and 12:00 (UTC) is negligible. The occurrence probability of elevated ducts in the Beibu Gulf area is relatively high, mainly concentrated from January to April, and the Xisha area is dominated by surface ducts without foundation layer, mainly concentrated from June to August. The monsoon plays a critical role in the generation and evolution of atmospheric ducts in the northwest of the SCS, with the height of the evaporation duct increasing and the bottom height of the elevated duct decreasing after the onset of the summer monsoon. Electromagnetic propagation simulations demonstrate that higher frequency and lower elevation angles of radiation sources in the trapping layer of the evaporation duct make it easier to be trapped. As the evaporation duct height decreases, the amplitude of the "sinusoidal fluctuation" of the propagation loss also decreases. Frequency changes of the radiation source in the surface duct environment have minimal impact on electromagnetic propagation loss, but the elevation angle of the radiation source is a critical factor. The frequency of the "sinusoidal fluctuation" in propagation loss is higher in a hybrid duct environment compared to a uniform surface duct. Additionally, the propagation loss increases faster with distance at the height of the evaporation duct, resulting in greater electromagnetic propagation loss.

The uniformity of evaporation duct height (EDH) plays a crucial role in the accurate prediction of electromagnetic propagation. This paper examines the non-uniformity of EDH in the South China Sea using data from 5 buoy stations and 14 automatic weather stations. The factors contributing to the non-uniformity of EDH are analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation method, and the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) error on the non-uniformity of EDH is also examined. The findings are as follows: (1) the Xisha Islands (XS) show the most non-uniformity in EDH, while the distributions of EDH in the Hainan Island (HN) and Nansha Islands (NS) are fairly uniform. (2) The primary factor related to the non-uniformity of EDH in the HN region is relative humidity when ASTD≥0, and wind speed when ASTD<0. However, the main factor related to the non-uniformity of EDH in the XS and NS regions is atmospheric temperature when ASTD≥0, and wind speed when ASTD<0. (3) The SST errors mainly affect the percentage distribution of EDH difference when its absolute value is less than 2m. When the absolute value of EDH difference is more than 2m, the impact of SST errors is relatively minor.

Radar reflectivity data snapshot fine-grained atmospheric variations that cannot be represented well by numerical weather prediction models or satellites, which poses a limit for nowcasts based on model–data fusion techniques. Here, we reveal a multiscale representation (MSR) of the atmosphere by reconstructing the radar echoes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and the Himawari-8 satellite products using U-Net deep networks. Our reconstructions generated the echoes well in terms of patterns, locations, and intensities with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.38 dBZ. We find stratified features in this MSR, with small-scale patterns such as echo intensities sensitive to the WRF-simulated dynamic and thermodynamic variables and with larger-scale information about shapes and locations mainly captured from satellite images. Such MSRs with physical interpretations may inspire innovative model–data fusion methods that could overcome the conventional limits of nowcasting.

Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) verification stands out as one of the most formidable endeavors in the realm of forecast verification. Traditional verification methods are not suitable for high-resolution forecasting products in some cases. Therefore, the SAL (structure, amplitude and location) method was proposed as a method of object-based spatial verification that studies precipitation verification in a certain range, which is combined with factors including structure, amplitude and location of the targets. However, the setting of the precipitation threshold would affect the result of the verification. This paper presented an improved method for determining the precipitation threshold using the QPF from ECMWF, which is an ensemble forecast model and three-source fusion product that was used in China from 1 July to 31 August 2020, and then the results obtained with this method were compared with the other two traditional methods. Furthermore, the SAL and the traditional verification methods were carried out for geometric, simulated and real cases, respectively. The results showed the following: (1) The proposed method in this paper for determining the threshold was more accurate at identifying the precipitation objects. (2) The verification area size was critical for SAL calculation. If the area selected was too large, the calculated SAL value had little significance. (3) ME (Mean Error) could not identify the displacement between prediction and observation, while HSS (Heidke Skill Score) was sensitive to the displacement of the prediction field. (4) Compared with the traditional verification methods, the SAL method was more straight forward and simple, and it could give a better representation of prediction ability. Therefore, forecasters can better understand the model prediction effect and what needs to be improved.

The change in raindrop spectrum characteristics is an important factor affecting the accuracy of estimations of precipitation. The in-depth study of raindrop spectrum characteristics is of great interest for understanding precipitation process and improving quantitative radar precipitation estimation. In this paper, the raindrop size distributions at Longli (57913), Puding (57808) and Luodian (57916) stations in Guizhou were analyzed from the perspective of precipitation microphysical characteristics. The results showed that the raindrop size distribution was different among different regions. The correlation coefficients of the mass-weighted average diameter for the rain intensities at these three stations were 46.89%, 49.51%, and 47.03%, respectively, which were slightly lower than the normal correlation coefficients of the average volume diameter for the rain intensities: 67.80%, 71.28%, and 71.46%, respectively. Based on the data from the Guiyang weather radar, raindrop spectrometer, and automatic rain gauge, the dynamic Z-I relationship method and the LSTM neural network method were used to estimate precipitation. The correlation coefficients of the dynamic Z-I relationship method and the LSTM neural network method at the three stations studied were 0.8432, 0.7763, and 0.8658 and 0.8745, 0.9125, and 0.8676, respectively. Regarding the process of stratiform cloud precipitation, the correlation coefficients of the dynamic Z-I relationship method and LSTM neural network method at the three stations were 0.6933, 0.0902, and 0.1409 and 0.7114, 0.4984, and 0.4902, respectively. In the estimation of cumulative precipitation for 45 days from 1 July to 16 August 2020, the relative errors of the neural network estimation at the three stations were −4.25%, −11.35%, and −8.68% and the relative errors of the dynamic Z-I relationship estimation were −2.68%, −7.41%, and −21.23%, respectively. The final relative error of the neural network was slightly worse than that of the dynamic Z-I relationship in the cumulative precipitation estimations of Longli station and Puding station, but the overall correlation coefficients of the LSTM neural network method were better than those of the dynamic Z-I relationship method.