This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1–20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.

Previous studies have reported that the potassium voltage-gated channel subfamily Q member 1 (KCNQ1) gene is associated with diabetes in both European and Asian population. This study aims to find a predictable single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) to predict the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) through investigating the association of SNP in KCNQ1 gene with MetS in Han Chinese women of northern urban area. Six SNPs were selected and genotyped in 1381 unrelated women aged 21 and above, who have had physical check-up in Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital. Cox proportional model was conducted to access the association between SNPs and MetS. Sixty one women developed MetS between 2010 and 2015 during the 3055 person-year of follow-up. The cumulative incidence density was 19.964/1000 person-year. The SNP rs163182 was associated with MetS both in the additive genetic model (RR = 1.658, 95% CI: 1.144–2.402) and in the recessive genetic model (RR = 2.461, 95% CI: 1.347–4.496). It remained significant after adjustment. This relationship was also observed in MetS components (BMI and SBP). A novel association between rs163182 and MetS was found in this study, which can predict the occurrence of MetS among northern urban Han Chinese women. More investigations are needed to be done to assess the possible pathway in which KCNQ1 gene affects MetS.