Top-down approaches to measure total integrated emissions provide verification of bottom-up, temporally resolved, inventory-based estimations. Aircraft-based measurements of air pollutants from sources in the Canadian oil sands were made in support of the Joint Canada–Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring during a summer intensive field campaign between 13 August and 7 September 2013. The measurements contribute to knowledge needed in support of the Joint Canada–Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring. This paper describes the top-down emission rate retrieval algorithm (TERRA) to determine facility emissions of pollutants, using SO2 and CH4 as examples, based on the aircraft measurements. In this algorithm, the flight path around a facility at multiple heights is mapped to a two-dimensional vertical screen surrounding the facility. The total transport of SO2 and CH4 through this screen is calculated using aircraft wind measurements, and facility emissions are then calculated based on the divergence theorem with estimations of box-top losses, horizontal and vertical turbulent fluxes, surface deposition, and apparent losses due to air densification and chemical reaction. Example calculations for two separate flights are presented. During an upset condition of SO2 emissions on one day, these calculations are within 5 % of the industry-reported, bottom-up measurements. During a return to normal operating conditions, the SO2 emissions are within 11 % of industry-reported, bottom-up measurements. CH4 emissions calculated with the algorithm are relatively constant within the range of uncertainties. Uncertainty of the emission rates is estimated as less than 30 %, which is primarily due to the unknown SO2 and CH4 mixing ratios near the surface below the lowest flight level.

Aircraft-based measurements of methane (CH₄) and other air pollutants in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) were made during a summer intensive field campaign between 13 August and 7 September 2013 in support of the Joint Canada–Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring. Chemical signatures were used to identify CH₄ sources from tailings ponds (BTEX VOCs), open pit surface mines (NO_y and rBC) and elevated plumes from bitumen upgrading facilities (SO₂ and NO_y). Emission rates of CH₄ were determined for the five primary surface mining facilities in the region using two mass-balance methods. Emission rates from source categories within each facility were estimated when plumes from the sources were spatially separable. Tailings ponds accounted for 45 % of total CH₄ emissions measured from the major surface mining facilities in the region, while emissions from operations in the open pit mines accounted for ∼ 50 %. The average open pit surface mining emission rates ranged from 1.2 to 2.8 t of CH₄ h⁻¹ for different facilities in the AOSR. Amongst the 19 tailings ponds, Mildred Lake Settling Basin, the oldest pond in the region, was found to be responsible for the majority of tailings ponds emissions of CH₄ ( > 70 %). The sum of measured emission rates of CH₄ from the five major facilities, 19.2 ± 1.1 t CH₄ h⁻¹, was similar to a single mass-balance determination of CH₄ from all major sources in the AOSR determined from a single flight downwind of the facilities, 23.7 ± 3.7 t CH₄ h⁻¹. The measured hourly CH₄ emission rate from all facilities in the AOSR is 48 ± 8 % higher than that extracted for 2013 from the Canadian Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, a legislated facility-reported emissions inventory, converted to hourly units. The measured emissions correspond to an emissions rate of 0.17 ± 0.01 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ if the emissions are assumed as temporally constant, which is an uncertain assumption. The emission rates reported here are relevant for the summer season. In the future, effort should be devoted to measurements in different seasons to further our understanding of the seasonal parameters impacting fugitive emissions of CH₄ and to allow for better estimates of annual emissions and year-to-year variability.

We evaluate four high-resolution model simulations of pollutant emissions, chemical transformation, and downwind transport for the Athabasca oil sands using the Global Environmental Multiscale – Modelling Air-quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) model, and compare model results with surface monitoring network and aircraft observations of multiple pollutants, for simulations spanning a time period corresponding to an aircraft measurement campaign in the summer of 2013. We have focussed here on the impact of different representations of the model's aerosol size distribution and plume-rise parameterization on model results. The use of a more finely resolved representation of the aerosol size distribution was found to have a significant impact on model performance, reducing the magnitude of the original surface PM _2.5 negative biases 32 %, from −2.62 to −1.72 µg m ⁻³ . We compared model predictions of SO ₂ , NO ₂ , and speciated particulate matter concentrations from simulations employing the commonly used Briggs (1984) plume-rise algorithms to redistribute emissions from large stacks, with stack plume observations. As in our companion paper (Gordon et al., 2017), we found that Briggs algorithms based on estimates of atmospheric stability at the stack height resulted in under-predictions of plume rise, with 116 out of 176 test cases falling below the model : observation 1 : 2 line, 59 cases falling within a factor of 2 of the observed plume heights, and an average model plume height of 289 m compared to an average observed plume height of 822 m. We used a high-resolution meteorological model to confirm the presence of significant horizontal heterogeneity in the local meteorological conditions driving plume rise. Using these simulated meteorological conditions at the stack locations, we found that a layered buoyancy approach for estimating plume rise in stable to neutral atmospheres, coupled with the assumption of free rise in convectively unstable atmospheres, resulted in much better model performance relative to observations (124 out of 176 cases falling within a factor of 2 of the observed plume height, with 69 of these cases above and 55 of these cases below the 1 : 1 line and within a factor of 2 of observed values). This is in contrast to our companion paper, wherein this layered approach (driven by meteorological observations not co-located with the stacks) showed a relatively modest impact on predicted plume heights. Persistent issues with over-fumigation of plumes in the model were linked to a more rapid decrease in simulated temperature with increasing height than was observed. This in turn may have led to overestimates of near-surface diffusivity, resulting in excessive fumigation.

The wealth of air quality information provided by satellite infrared observations of ammonia (NH₃), carbon monoxide (CO), formic acid (HCOOH), and methanol (CH₃OH) is currently being explored and used for a number of applications, especially at regional or global scales. These applications include air quality monitoring, trend analysis, emissions, and model evaluation. This study provides one of the first direct validations of Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite-retrieved profiles of NH₃, CH₃OH, and HCOOH through comparisons with coincident aircraft profiles. The comparisons are performed over the Canadian oil sands region during the intensive field campaign (August–September, 2013) in support of the Joint Canada–Alberta Implementation Plan for Oil Sands Monitoring (JOSM). The satellite/aircraft comparisons over this region during this period produced errors of (i) +0.08 ± 0.25 ppbv for NH₃, (ii) +7.5 ± 23 ppbv for CO, (iii) +0.19 ± 0.46 ppbv for HCOOH, and (iv) −1.1 ± 0.39 ppbv for CH₃OH. These values mostly agree with previously estimated retrieval errors; however, the relatively large negative bias in CH₃OH and the significantly greater positive bias for larger HCOOH and CO values observed during this study warrant further investigation. Satellite and aircraft ammonia observations during the field campaign are also used in an initial effort to perform preliminary evaluations of Environment Canada's Global Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) air quality modelling system at high resolution (2.5 × 2.5 km²). These initial results indicate a model underprediction of ~ 0.6 ppbv (~ 60 %) for NH₃, during the field campaign period. The TES/model CO comparison differences are ~ +20 ppbv (~ +20 %), but given that under these conditions the TES/aircraft comparisons also show a small positive TES CO bias indicates that the overall model underprediction of CO is closer to ~ 10 % at 681 hPa (~ 3 km) during this period.

Plume rise parameterizations calculate the rise of pollutant plumes due to effluent buoyancy and exit momentum. Some form of these parameterizations is used by most air quality models. In this paper, the performance of the commonly used Briggs plume rise algorithm was extensively evaluated, through a comparison of the algorithm's results when driven by meteorological observations with direct observations of plume heights in the Athabasca oil sands region. The observations were carried out as part of the Canada-Alberta Joint Oil Sands Monitoring Plan in August and September of 2013. Wind and temperature data used to drive the algorithm were measured in the region of emissions from various platforms, including two meteorological towers, a radio-acoustic profiler, and a research aircraft. Other meteorological variables used to drive the algorithm include friction velocity, boundary-layer height, and the Obukhov length. Stack emissions and flow parameter information reported by continuous emissions monitoring systems (CEMSs) were used to drive the plume rise algorithm. The calculated plume heights were then compared to interpolated aircraft SO ₂ measurements, in order to evaluate the algorithm's prediction for plume rise. We demonstrate that the Briggs algorithm, when driven by ambient observations, significantly underestimated plume rise for these sources, with more than 50 % of the predicted plume heights falling below half the observed values from this analysis. With the inclusion of the effects of effluent momentum, the choice of different forms of parameterizations, and the use of different stability classification systems, this essential finding remains unchanged. In all cases, approximately 50 % or more of the predicted plume heights fall below half the observed values. These results are in contrast to numerous plume rise measurement studies published between 1968 and 1993. We note that the observations used to drive the algorithms imply the potential presence of significant spatial heterogeneity in meteorological conditions; we examine the potential impact of this heterogeneity in our companion paper (Akingunola et al., 2018). It is suggested that further study using long-term in situ measurements with currently available technologies is warranted to investigate this discrepancy, and that wherever possible, meteorological input variables are observed in the immediate vicinity of the emitting stacks.