We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH₄) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three‐dimensional fields of CH₄ and δ¹³C‐CH₄, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH₄ emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ¹³C‐CH₄. Increased FF CH₄ emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post‐2006 global CH₄ increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post‐2006 global CH₄ increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ¹³C‐CH₄. Different CH₄ sinks have different fractionation factors for δ¹³C‐CH₄, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH₄ with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH₄ sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH₄ sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a primary regulator of the forest–climate feedback. However, its indicative capability for the soil CH₄ sink is poorly understood due to the incomplete knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. Therefore, SOC is not explicitly included in the current model estimation of the global forest CH₄ sink. Here, using in-situ observations, global meta-analysis, and process-based modeling, we provide evidence that SOC constitutes an important variable that governs the forest CH₄ sink. We find that a CH₄ sink is enhanced with increasing SOC content on regional and global scales. The revised model with SOC function better reproduces the field observation and estimates a 39% larger global forest CH₄ sink (24.27 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹) than the model without considering SOC effects (17.46 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹). This study highlights the role of SOC in the forest CH₄ sink, which shall be factored into future global CH₄ budget quantification.

Atmospheric concentrations of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, have strongly increased since 2007. Measurements of stable carbon isotopes of methane can constrain emissions if the isotopic compositions are known; however, isotopic compositions of methane emissions from wetlands are poorly constrained despite their importance. Here, we use a process-based biogeochemistry model to calculate the stable carbon isotopic composition of global wetland methane emissions. We estimate a mean global signature of −61.3 ± 0.7‰ and find that tropical wetland emissions are enriched by ~11‰ relative to boreal wetlands. Our model shows improved resolution of regional, latitudinal and global variations in isotopic composition of wetland emissions. Atmospheric simulation scenarios with the improved wetland isotopic composition suggest that increases in atmospheric methane since 2007 are attributable to rising microbial emissions. Our findings substantially reduce uncertainty in the stable carbon isotopic composition of methane emissions from wetlands and improve understanding of the global methane budget.

In the face of ongoing and projected climatic changes, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) have produced a wealth of data about the effects of precipitation changes on soils. In response, researchers have undertaken a number of synthetic efforts. Several meta-analyses have been conducted, each revealing new aspects of soil responses to precipitation changes. Here, we conducted a comparative analysis of the findings of 16 meta-analyses focused on the effects of precipitation changes on 42 soil response variables, covering a wide range of soil processes. We examine responses of individual variables as well as more integrative responses of carbon and nitrogen cycles. We find strong agreement among meta-analyses that belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling accelerate under increased precipitation and slow under decreased precipitation, while bacterial and fungal communities are relatively resistant to decreased precipitation. Much attention has been paid to fluxes and pools in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles, such as gas emissions, soil carbon, soil phosphorus, extractable nitrogen ions, and biomass. The rates of processes underlying these variables (e.g., mineralization, fixation, and (de)nitrification) are less frequently covered in meta-analytic studies, with the major exception of respiration rates. Shifting scientific attention to these less broadly evaluated processes would deepen the current understanding of the effects of precipitation changes on soil and provide new insights. By jointly evaluating meta-analyses focused on a wide range of variables, we provide here a holistic view of soil responses to changes in precipitation.

In the Arctic, the spatiotemporal variation of net methane uptake in upland soils depends on unresolved interactive controls between edaphic and microbial factors not yet included in current models, underpinning the uncertainty of upscaling the Arctic methane budget. Here we show that upland soils in Greenland are consistent methane sinks (−1.83 ± 0.19 nmol methane g⁻¹ dw d⁻¹) across a N-S (64–83 °N) pedoclimatic transect. We demonstrate that methane oxidizers abundance, soil pH, and available soil copper are important controls on the spatial variation in methane oxidation. We revised a soil biogeochemical model with a high-resolution land classification and meteorological data for Greenland and tested it against our methane uptake measurements. The model simulated well the magnitudes of observed methane uptake but not the spatial variation across all sites. This work provides novel insights into the controls of methane uptake, which are critical for the accuracy of methane budgets.