Forecasting sudden changes in complex systems is a critical but challenging task, with previously developed methods varying widely in their reliability. Here we develop a novel detection method, using simple theoretical models to train a deep neural network to detect critical transitions—the Early Warning Signal Network (EWSNet). We then demonstrate that this network, trained on simulated data, can reliably predict observed real-world transitions in systems ranging from rapid climatic change to the collapse of ecological populations. Importantly, our model appears to capture latent properties in time series missed by previous warning signals approaches, allowing us to not only detect if a transition is approaching, but critically whether the collapse will be catastrophic or non-catastrophic. These novel properties mean EWSNet has the potential to serve as an indicator of transitions across a broad spectrum of complex systems, without requiring information on the structure of the system being monitored. Our work highlights the practicality of deep learning for addressing further questions pertaining to ecosystem collapse and has much broader management implications.

Caring for individuals with dementia is frequently associated with extreme physical and emotional stress, which often leads to depression. Smart home technology and advances in machine learning techniques can provide innovative solutions to reduce caregiver burden. One key service that caregivers provide is prompting individuals with memory limitations to initiate and complete daily activities. We hypothesize that sensor technologies combined with machine learning techniques can automate the process of providing reminder-based interventions. The first step toward automated interventions is to detect when an individual faces difficulty with activities. We propose machine learning approaches based on one-class classification that learn normal activity patterns. When we apply these classifiers to activity patterns that were not seen before, the classifiers are able to detect activity errors, which represent potential prompt situations. We validate our approaches on smart home sensor data obtained from older adult participants, some of whom faced difficulties performing routine activities and thus committed errors.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged as a crucial research area to address the interpretability challenges posed by complex machine learning models. In this survey paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of existing approaches in the field of XAI, focusing on the tradeoff between model accuracy and interpretability. Motivated by the need to address this tradeoff, we conduct an extensive review of the literature, presenting a multi-view taxonomy that offers a new perspective on XAI methodologies. We analyze various sub-categories of XAI methods, considering their strengths, weaknesses, and practical challenges. Moreover, we explore causal relationships in model explanations and discuss approaches dedicated to explaining cross-domain classifiers. The latter is particularly important in scenarios where training and test data are sampled from different distributions. Drawing insights from our analysis, we propose future research directions, including exploring explainable allied learning paradigms, developing evaluation metrics for both traditionally trained and allied learning-based classifiers, and applying neural architectural search techniques to minimize the accuracy–interpretability tradeoff. This survey paper provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in XAI, serving as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners interested in understanding and advancing the field.