Harmful algal blooms (HABs) threaten lake ecosystems and public health. Early HAB detection is possible by monitoring chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. Ground-based Chl-a data have limited spatial and temporal coverage but can be geo-registered with temporally coincident satellite imagery to calibrate a remote sensing-based predictive model for regional mapping over time. When matching ground and satellite data, positional and temporal discrepancies are unavoidable due particularly to dynamic lake surfaces, thereby biasing the model calibration. This limitation has long been recognized but so far has not been addressed explicitly. To mitigate such effects of data mismatching, we proposed an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-like weighted regression algorithm that relies on an error-based heuristic to automatically favor “good” data points and downplay “bad” points. We evaluated the algorithm for estimating Chl-a over inland lakes in Ohio using Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2. The AIC-like weighted regression estimates showed superior performance with an R² of 0.91 and an error variance (${\sigma }_E^2$) of 0.29 μg/L, outperforming linear regression (R² = 0.34, ${\sigma }_E^2$ = 2.34 μg/L) and random forest (R² = 0.82, ${\sigma }_E^2$ = 0.92 μg/L). We also noticed the poorest performance occurred in the spring due to low reflectance variation in clear water and low Chl-a concentration. Our weighted regression scheme is adaptive and generically applicable. Future studies may adopt our scheme to tackle other remote sensing estimation problems (e.g., terrestrial applications) for alleviating the adverse effects of geolocation errors and temporal discrepancies.

Quantifying and correcting biases in modeling simulations is crucial for deriving meaningful findings across various scientific disciplines. Climate model simulations, in particular, often exhibit systemic biases when compared to observations. These biases may persist in future climate simulations, affecting the results of many climate change impact assessment studies. Empirical quantile mapping (QM) is a widely used method to correct these biases by mapping quantiles between observed and simulated cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). However, empirical QM faces a fundamental challenge when the CDF of future simulations differs from historical simulations, potentially leading to extreme values falling outside the historical CDF range. To address this issue, our study introduces a novel approach to extrapolate future extreme values for bias correction, preserving the rank order of simulated future extremes. By construction, our approach ensures that bias-corrected values are not exaggerated and retain the rank structure of the original simulated data while preserving climate change signals in the bias-corrected outputs. In addition, our approach includes a technique to adjust the wet-day frequency for precipitation by preserving the ratio of wet-day frequency between observations and historical model simulations.