The hidden history of the HIV pandemic: Rail and river transport in 1960s Congo, combined with the sexual revolution and changes in health care practices, primed the HIV pandemic. Fariaet al.unpick the circumstances surrounding the ascendancy of HIV from its origins before 1920 in chimpanzee hunters in the Cameroon to amplification in Kinshasa. Around 1960, rail links promoted the spread of the virus to mining areas in southeastern Congo and beyond. Ultimately, HIV crossed the Atlantic in Haitian teachers returning home. From those early events, a pandemic was born.Science, this issue p.56

Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) emerged in West Africa and has spread further to countries that share socio-historical ties with this region. However, viral origins and dispersal patterns at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we adopt a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the spatial dynamics of HIV-2 group A (HIV-2A) using a collection of 320 partial pol and 248 partial env sequences sampled throughout 19 countries worldwide. We extend phylogenetic diffusion models that simultaneously draw information from multiple loci to estimate location states throughout distinct phylogenies and explicitly attempt to incorporate human migratory fluxes. Our study highlights that Guinea-Bissau, together with Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, have acted as the main viral sources in the early stages of the epidemic. We show that convenience sampling can obfuscate the estimation of the spatial root of HIV-2A. We explicitly attempt to circumvent this by incorporating rate priors that reflect the ratio of human flow from and to West Africa. We recover four main routes of HIV-2A dispersal that are laid out along colonial ties: Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde to Portugal, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal to France. Within Europe, we find strong support for epidemiological linkage from Portugal to Luxembourg and to the UK. We demonstrate that probabilistic models can uncover global patterns of HIV-2A dispersal providing sampling bias is taken into account and we provide a scenario for the international spread of this virus.

The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880–1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4–43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5–2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20^th century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20^th century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20^th century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.

Angola borders and has long-term links with Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as well as high levels of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genetic diversity, indicating a potential role in the initial spread of the HIV-1 pandemic. Herein, we analyze 564 C2V3 and 354 pol publicly available sequences from DRC, Republic of Congo (RC) and Angola to better understand the initial spread of the virus in this region. Phylogeographic analyses were performed with the BEAST software. While our results pinpoint the origin of the pandemic to Kinshasa (DRC) around 1906, the introduction of HIV-1 to Angola could have occurred early between the 1910s and 1940s. Furthermore, most of the HIV-1 migrations out of Kinshasa were directed not only to Lubumbashi and Mbuji-Mayi (DRC), but also to Luanda and Brazzaville. Kinshasa census records corroborate these findings, indicating that the early exportation of the virus to Angola might be related to the high number of Angolans in Kinshasa at that time, originated mostly from the North of Angola. In summary, our results place Angola at the epicenter of the early HIV dissemination, together with DRC and RC.