During the 2020/2021 winter season, three nationwide cold waves took place from 28 to 31 December 2020, as well as from 5 to 8 January and 14 to 17 January 2021. These cold waves resulted in extreme cold weather in northern and eastern China. In this study, the common features of these cold waves were analyzed, and the key factors contributing to cold waves were illustrated, and the performance of the CMA-GEPS numerical model was evaluated in predicting the cooling effect of the cold waves, and its predictability source was discussed. The results indicated that the cold waves were caused by synergistic effects in the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation of both the upper and lower atmosphere, including polar vortex splitting, enhancement of blocking high, and increased meridional circulation anomaly in the Siberian high area. During the time of cold waves, the mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation was undergoing low-frequency adjustment, with the Arctic oscillation continuously weakening, while the blocking high and Siberian high gradually increased to historically high-intensity states. The outbreaks of the three cold waves occurred at the peak and declining points of the blocking high and Siberian high, respectively, acting as short- to medium-term forecast factors. The CMA-GEPS model demonstrated high forecasting ability for the cooling of the cold waves due to its ability to accurately predict the evolution of the Siberian high and blocking high prior to and after the cold wave with a long lead time. Predictability analysis suggested the strong variability of key factors (such as the Siberian high and blocking) in cold wave events may benefit the model’s prediction of cold wave events. These findings contribute to the understanding of the physical mechanisms behind cold waves and the potential for improved forecasting of extreme cold weather events.

Observational data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory during four summers (2014–2017) has been used to investigate deep convection systems (DCSs) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its south slope (SS). The frequency, geographical distribution diurnal variation, and vertical structure of DCSs over the TP and SS are compared among these two regions. The frequency of DCSs over the SS (0.98%) was far higher than over the TP (0.15%), suggesting that stronger DCSs occur to the east and south of the TP. The maximum number of DCS occurred in July and August. A clear diurnal variation in DCS was found over the whole region, DCSs over the TP and SS both have a greatest amplitude in the afternoon. The probability of DCSs from 1200 to 1800 local time (LT) was 76.3% and 44.1% over TP and SS respectively, whereas the probability of DCSs being generated from 2200 (LT) to 0600 on the next day LT was 0.03% and 33.1% over the TP and SS respectively. There was a very low frequency of DCSs over the TP during the night. Five special echo top heights were used to investigate the vertical structure of DCSs. DCSs over the TP were both weaker and smaller than those over the SS.

This study analyzed the long-term variations and trends of haze pollution and its relationships with emission and meteorological factors using the haze days (HDs) data derived from surface observation stations in Sichuan-Chongqing (SCC) region during 1980–2016. The results showed that the multi-year mean number of HDs were 68.7 and 4.9 days for the Sichuan-Basin (SCB) and the rest of SCC region, respectively. The seasonally averaged HDs over SCB reached its maximum in winter (34.7 days), followed by autumn (17.0 days) and spring (11.6 days), and with the minimum observed in summer (5.5 days). The inter-annual variations of HDs in 18 main cities revealed that Zigong, Neijiang, and Yibin, which are located in the southern of SCB, have been the most polluted areas over the SCC region in the past decades. A notable increasing trend in annual HDs over the majority of SCC region was found during 1980–1995, then the trend sharply reversed during 1996–2005, while it increased, fluctuating at some cities after 2006. Seasonally, the increased trend in spring and autumn seems to be the strongest during 1980–1995, whereas the decreased trend in spring and winter was stronger than other seasons during 1996–2005. In addition, a remarkable increasing trend was found in winter since 2006. Using correlation analysis between HDs and emission and meteorological factors during different periods, we found that the variability of local precipitation days (PDs), planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), near-surface wind speed (WS), and relatively humidity (RH) play different roles in influencing the haze pollution change during different historical periods. The joint effect of sharp increase of anthropogenic emissions, reduced PDs and WS intensified the haze pollution in SCB during 1980–1995. In contrast, decreased HDs during 1996–2005 are mainly attributable to the reduction of PM_2.5 emission and the increase of PDs (especially in winter). In addition, the decrease of PDs is likely to be responsible for the unexpected increase in winter HDs over SCB in the last decade.

The existence of clouds significantly increases or decreases the net radiation of the Earth. The influence of cloud type and cloud phase on radiation is as important as cloud amount, and the physical processes of different types of clouds are obviously different. In this study, the occurrence frequency of different cloud types (low transparent, low opaque, stratocumulus, broken cumulus, altocumulus transparent, altostratus opaque, cirrus, and deep convective) and cloud phases (ice and water) over China and its surrounding areas (0–55°N, 70–140°E) are calculated based on cloud vertical feature mask products from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The results show significant spatial differences and seasonal variations in the distribution of different cloud types and cloud phases. There are four prevailing cloud types over the whole year, among which cirrus and altocumulus transparent are the most widely distributed and have the highest occurrence frequency. Cirrus clouds are mainly distributed at altitudes above 6 km north of 30°N and south of 20°N. Altocumulus transparent clouds are mainly distributed over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and at an altitude of 3–6 km to the north of 40°N, and they are more widely distributed in winter than in summer. Water clouds are mainly distributed in the latitude range of 20°N–40°N and are obviously influenced by the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Water clouds are widely distributed in autumn and winter. Ice clouds are mainly distributed in the areas south of 20°N and north of 40°N. Regardless of the choice of altitude between 3 km and 7 km, the boundary between ice cloud and water cloud is always near the −14 °C isotherm, and when the −14 °C isotherm moves southward, the ice-cloud distribution range expands southward. The probability density functions of the temperature in the cloud always show the distribution characteristics of two peaks and one valley, which is particularly obvious in the middle and high clouds, and the peak temperature is warmer than the sub-peak temperature. The valley temperature and its corresponding latitude of all cloud types are different: the cirrus valley temperature is not significantly affected by the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, but the plateau has an effect on the latitude of the valley temperature distribution of other types of cloud. The above conclusions lay the foundation for further research on the radiation effects of different clouds on China and its surrounding areas and also have certain indicating significance for weather effects caused by various cloud physical processes.

In order to focus on pentad-scale precipitation forecasts, we investigated the coupling relationship between 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies and precipitation anomalies using the China Meteorological Administration Global Land Surface ReAnalysis Interim (CRA40/Land) gridded precipitation dataset from 1999 to 2018 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 1 reanalysis dataset for Z500. We obtained a dynamical–statistical downscaling model (DSDM) on the pentad scale and used the daily Z500 forecast product for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts (15–60 days) of the FGOALS-f2 model as the predictor. Our results showed that pentad-scale prediction of precipitation is the key to bridging the current deficiencies in sub-seasonal forecasts. Compared with the FGOALS-f2 model, the pentad DSDM had a higher skill for prediction of precipitation in China at lead times longer than four pentads throughout the year and of two pentads in the summer months. FGOALS-f2 had excellent precipitation predictability at lead times less than three pentads (15 days), so the proposed pentad DSDM could not perform better than FGOALS-f2 in this period. However, at lead times greater than four pentads, the precipitation prediction scores (such as the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and the mean square skill score (MSSS)) of the pentad DSDM for the whole of China were higher than those of the FGOALS-f2 model. With the rate of increase ranging from 76% to 520%, the mean ACC scores of pentad DSDM were basically greater than 0.04 after a lead time of five pentads, whereas those of the FGOALS-f2 were less than 0.04. An analysis of the Zhengzhou “720” super heavy rainstorm event showed that the pentad DSDM also had better predictability for the distribution of precipitation at lead times of three pentads than the FGOALS-f2 model for the extreme precipitation event.

Long-term high-resolution monitoring of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is necessary to understand air pollution problems and climate change at regional to urban scales. Based on the 1 km AOD dataset retrieved by the MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC), the spatial-temporal evolutionary trends of AOD in the Sichuan Basin (SCB), Southwest China, and its 17 subordinate cities were analyzed from 2001 to 2020. In the past 20 years, the annual average AOD in SCB gradually decreased from south to north. The highest AOD of SCB in spring was 0.62, followed by an average AOD value of 0.60 in winter. At the city scale, Zigong, Neijiang, and Ziyang were identified as the three most polluted cities within the SCB. The average AOD in the SCB increased to 0.68 and 0.69 in February and March, respectively, and significantly decreased to 0.41 and 0.43 in June and July, respectively. The interannual AOD in the SCB presented an increasing trend from 2001 to 2010, with a range of 0.50 to 0.70, whereas it showed a decreasing trend from 2011 to 2020, with a range of 0.68 to 0.35. In spring, the annual average AOD at the district level showed significant high values from 2005 to 2012. In winter, the interannual AOD increased significantly, with high values concentrated in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013. The occurrence frequency of AOD in the SCB was mainly distributed between 0.2~0.5 and 1.5. There also was an increasing trend of AOD in the SCB from 2001 to 2008 and a decreasing trend from 2009 to 2020. The results of this study hold significance for further understanding the climatic characteristics and environmental effects of regional atmospheric aerosols.