Based on high‐resolution observed daily precipitation data and atmospheric circulation data, a physics‐based empirical model (PEM) is built for the prediction of summer extreme precipitation (SEP) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLYRB; 27°–33°N, 108°–120°E). Two preceding predictors with significant physical influences (i.e., spring sea surface temperatures [SSTs] across the northern Indian Ocean [NIO; 20°S–20°N, 50°–95°E] and sea level pressure [SLP], which was defined as spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the western North Pacific (WNP; 30°S–30°N,120°E–150°W) minus spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the Aleutian Islands (AIs; 50°–70°N,160°E–160°W)) are selected. Analyses of these physical mechanisms show that when spring SSTs over the NIO are higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) extends to the west; therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and increases water vapour transport to the MLYRB, which results in increased SEP. Meanwhile, the increase in SEP over the MLYRB is related to control by conditions via anticyclonic anomalies over the Philippines, which are maintained through the interaction between abnormally high WNP and dipole SST anomalies. The regression model is built over the period 1961–1999 with a correlation coefficient skill of 0.56 (p < 0.01), and the independent forecast of the PEM over the validation period 2000–2014 shows a skillful SEP prediction, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.52 (p < 0.05).

In the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, especially extreme precipitation events, have increased. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are important areas for economic development, and are also one of the areas where rainstorms and flood disasters frequently occur in China. Improving the prediction of future summer extreme precipitation in this region under the greenhouse gas emission pathway that aligns with sustainable economic development (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) will help decision-makers better cope with the impact of increased natural disasters, such as floods. The medium-resolution CESM1.0 (Community Earth System Model 1.0) data (1° × 1°) has limitations in capturing regional climate differences. Therefore, we designed a downscale experiment using the WRF3.8 (Weather Research and Forecasting 3.8) model to obtain the daily summer precipitation grid data with 0.25° × 0.25° latitude and longitude resolution over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from May to September in 2006–2030 (WRF025). The research shows that the WRF025 data is reliable in simulating the summer extreme precipitation events over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, especially in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Compared to CESM1.0 data, WRF025 data significantly improves the ability to simulate the numerical value and distribution of summer extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, compared to 2006–2014, there is no significant change in daily summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during 2015–2030, with a significant decrease in daily summer extreme precipitation. There are significant regional differences in spatial distribution, with a significant decrease in Hunan and Hubei, and a significant increase in Jiangxi and Fujian. Under high-pressure control, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are dominated by downdraft, resulting in more sunny days and less precipitation. The increase (decrease) in water vapor transport and divergence may be the reason for the increase (decrease) in extreme precipitation. The most direct factor leading to an increase (decrease) in extreme precipitation is the vertical movement upwards (downwards). Furthermore, the anomalous descent (ascent) can be well explained by the easterly (westerly) wind anomaly on the southern (northern) side of the anomalous anticyclone via the isentropic gliding mechanism.

Under the background of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate have increased, especially extreme high temperatures. In order to correctly predict the changes in the extreme high temperatures in summer in China in this century, it is urgent to deepen the understanding of the characteristics and physical mechanisms of the extreme high temperatures in summer on the centennial timescale. Many researchers have explored the mechanism of the influences of the variability of the solar cycle on climate change, while the mechanism of the influences of the centennial variation of solar activity on climate change remains elusive. Here, we use the outputs from the Control (CTRL) experiment, Total solar irradiance and Orbital (TSI_ORB) experiment, and Orbital (ORB) experiment from Nanjing Normal University-Holocene (NNU-Hol) experiments to study the extreme high temperatures in summer in China during the Holocene. On the basis of verifying the consistency of the centennial period between the TSI (TSI_ORB minus ORB plus CTRL) experiment and the reconstructed data, we compared the centennial variation characteristics of the summer extreme high temperature in the CTRL experiment and the TSI experiment. It shows that under the modulation of total solar irradiance, the centennial spatial pattern of the summer extreme high temperatures changed from dipole mode to uniform mode, with 300-year and 500-year periodicity, compared to the influence of only internal variability. On the centennial time scale, the greatest difference is located in northeast China. The subsidence movement and the reduction of cloud cover caused by the anticyclone under the control of high-pressure lead to the increase of downward solar radiation, thus making a positive center is showed in northeast China on the impacts of total solar irradiance. Furthermore, the center of the Rossby wave train in the barotropic structure of the upper circulation related to the summer extreme high temperature significantly moves northward. This barotropic structure is composed of continuous pressure ridges from Eurasia to North America and the North Atlantic, which is conducive to the increase of the summer extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, we investigated the underlying physical mechanisms. Under the influence of total solar irradiance, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with the same centennial cycle as extreme high temperatures lead to obvious subsidence movement and increase of radiation flux, causing an increase in extreme high temperatures over northeast China.