Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona,
CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP),
Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10,
Campus de Montilivi, Girona 17003, Spain
Prof. Dr. Marc Saez
Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona,
CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP),
Carrer de la Universitat de Girona 10,
Campus de Montilivi, Girona 17003, Spain
Wildfires have become one of the principal environmental problems in the Mediterranean basin. While fire plays an important role in most terrestrial plant ecosystems, the potential hazard that it represents for human lives and property has led to the application of fire exclusion policies that, in the long term, have caused severe damage, mainly due to the increase of fuel loadings in forested areas, in some forest systems. The lack of an easy solution to forest fire management highlights the importance of preventive tasks. The observed spatio-temporal pattern of wildfire occurrences may be idealized as a realization of some stochastic process. In particular, we may use a space–time point pattern approach for the analysis and inference process. We studied wildfires in Catalonia, a region in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula, and we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns produced by those wildfire incidences by considering the influence of covariates on trends in the intensity of wildfire locations. A total of 3,166 wildfires from 1994–2008 have been recorded. We specified spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process models. Models were estimated using Bayesian inference for Gaussian Markov Random Field through the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm. The results of our analysis have provided statistical evidence that areas closer to humans have more human induced wildfires, areas farther have more naturally occurring wildfires. We believe the methods presented in this paper may contribute to the prevention and management of those wildfires which are not random in space or time.
In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio-demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT) and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT) were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects were greater in hotter cities but lesser in cities with higher variability. The effect of heat was greater than the effect of cold. The effect of cold and MMT was, in general, greater for cardio-respiratory mortality than for total mortality, while the effect of heat was, in general, greater among the elderly.
In this paper, we aim to discern how a mother’s health and her socioeconomic determinants may influence her children’s mental health. In addition to this, we also evaluate the influence of other household characteristics and whether or not the economic downturn has heightened the effect a parent’s social gradient has on their children’s mental health. We use samples comprised of 4-14-year-old minors from the 2006 Spanish National Health Survey (SNHS), undertaken prior to the crisis, and the 2011 SNHS, carried out during the crisis. The participating children’s mental health is assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Mixed models are used to evaluate the influence a mother’s health and her socioeconomic status may have on her children’s mental health. We also add interactions to observe the effect specific socioeconomic determinants may have had during the economic downturn. The risk of a child suffering from mental health disorders increases when their mother has mental health problems. Socioeconomic determinants also play a role, as a low socioeconomic status (SES) increases the risk of a child exhibiting behavioural problems, being hyperactive or antisocial, whereas when a mother has attained a high level of education, this significantly reduces the probability of a child having mental health problems. ‘Homemaker’ is the activity status most positively related to children’s mental health. The findings show that the Spanish economic downturn has not significantly changed children’s mental health problems and the negative effects of low maternal SES are no greater than they were before the crisis. The main difference in 2011, with respect to 2006, is that the risk of children suffering from mental health problems is higher when their parents are (long or short-term) unemployed. In conclusion, both a mother’s health and her socioeconomic status, as well as other household characteristics, are found to be related to her children’s mental well-being. Although the crisis has not significantly changed mental health disorders in children or the social gradient of parents in general, at-risk children are the most negatively affected in the Spanish economic downturn.