The stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in northern mid-latitudes. Its influence on the tropospheric mid- and high-latitudes has attracted growing attention in recent years. However, the trend in the SAV during the recent two decades is still unknown. Here, using three reanalysis datasets, we found that the SAV intensity during 1998–2016 has a strengthening trend, in contrast to the weakening trend before that period. Approximately 25% of this strengthening is contributed by the warming of sea-surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific (CNP). Observational analysis and model experiments show that the warmed CNP SST tends to weaken the Aleutian low, subsequently weakening the upward propagation of wavenumber-1 planetary wave flux, further strengthening the SAV. This strengthened SAV suggests important implications in understanding the Arctic warming amplification and in predicting the surface temperature changes over the northern continents.

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China experienced an extremely severe and persistent drought event from January to May of 2011. Using both the observational data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, features of the drought event and the related circulation anomalies were investigated. It is found that the precipitation during the investigated period of 2011 was deficient mostly along the Yangtze River. The water vapor diverged from MLRYR southward into the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, and the Philippines. There were two factors facilitating the drought event. One was the quasi-stationary Rossby wave–related teleconnection, which propagated eastward at midhigh latitudes from the North Atlantic to East Asia, reinforcing the Siberian high and the East Asian trough, henceforth resulting in the divergence anomalies in MLRYR in the lower troposphere. This quasi-stationary wave train, though originating from the North Atlantic region, was not essentially related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Another factor for the drought event was the persistent anomalous thermal forcing over the Maritime Continent, which induced the anomalous divergence in the upper troposphere in this region, building up an anomalous Hadley circulation with its ascent branch over the Maritime Continent and descent branch over MLRYR. This thermal forcing was possibly, but not necessarily, related to the La Niña event. The persistence of the drought event over MLRYR was due to the maintenance of the quasi-stationary waves at midhigh latitudes and the persistent anomalous thermal forcing in the Maritime Continent.

Using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the relationship between the stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on decadal time scales was investigated. A significant in-phase relationship between the PDO and SAV on decadal time scales during 1950–2014 is found, that is, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) associated with the positive (negative) PDO phases is closely related to the strengthening (weakening) of the SAV. This decadal relationship between the North Pacific SST and SAV is different from their relationship on subdecadal time scales. Observational and modeling results both demonstrate that the decadal variation in the SAV is strongly affected by the North Pacific SSTs related to the PDO via modifying the upward propagation of planetary wavenumber-1 waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The decreased SSTs over the North Pacific tend to result in a deepened Aleutian low along with a strengthened jet stream over the North Pacific, which excites a weakened western Pacific pattern and a strengthened Pacific–North American pattern. These tropospheric circulation anomalies are in accordance with the decreased refractive index (RI) at middle and high latitudes in the northern stratosphere during the positive PDO phase. The increased RI at high latitudes in the upper troposphere impedes the planetary wavenumber-1 wave from propagating into the stratosphere, and in turn strengthens the SAV. The responses of the RI to the PDO are mainly contributions of the changes in the meridional gradient of the zonal-mean potential vorticity via alteration of the baroclinic term .

In this study, the key dynamic factors influencing the formation of six heavy‐rainfall events with coexisting inland and coastal rainfall over south China during May–June 2011–2017 are investigated using global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. An ensemble sensitivity analysis and comparisons between the identified good and bad members are conducted. Results confirm the importance of the synoptic low‐level jet (SLLJ) and boundary layer jet (BLJ), but with different contributions, in determining the generation of the inland and coastal rainbelts, respectively. The inland heavy rainfall is closely related to both the SLLJ and BLJ, especially their meridional wind components. The more intense cold or quasi‐stationary front, low‐level vortex, or shear line accompanied by the stronger geostrophic southerly winds within both jets over inland and coastal south China is, the more rainfall over the inland region is favored. The ageostrophic southerly winds of the BLJ make limited contributions to the inland rainfall production but exert greater impacts on the generation of extreme (yet localized) coastal rainfall. The geostrophic meridional winds and associated low‐level front/vortex also play a nonnegligible but indispensable role in producing the coastal rainfall. These findings add to our knowledge of heavy rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region.

The zonal structure of trends in the tropical tropopause layer during 1979–2014 is investigated by using reanalysis datasets and chemistry–climate model simulations. The analysis herein reveals that the tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT) trends during 1979–2014 are zonally asymmetric; that is, over the tropical central and eastern Pacific (CEP; 20°S–20°N, 160°E–100°W), the CPTT shows an increasing trend of 0.22 K decade−1, whereas over the rest of the tropical regions (non-CEP regions) the CPTT shows a decreasing trend of −0.08 K decade−1. Model simulations suggest that this zonal asymmetry in the tropical CPTT trends can be partly attributed to Walker circulation (WC) changes induced by zonally asymmetric changes of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The increasing (decreasing) SSTs over the western Pacific (CEP) result in a larger zonal gradient in sea level pressure over the tropical Pacific and intensified surface easterlies. The increased pressure gradient leads to enhanced convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and weakened convection over the CEP, facilitating a stronger WC. The downward branch of the intensified WC induces a dynamical warming over the CEP and the upward branch of the intensified WC induces a dynamical cooling over the non-CEP regions below 150 hPa. The significant warming in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) caused by the WC descending and wave activity changes in the UTLS over the CEP shifts the cold-point tropopause height to a higher level, while the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, ozone, and water vapor changes in the UTLS make less important contributions to the trend of the tropical CPTT than SST changes.