In this study, we combined machine learning and remote sensing techniques to estimate the value of chlorophyll-a concentration in a freshwater ecosystem in the South American continent (lake in Southern Chile). In a previous study, nine artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms were tested to predict water quality data from measurements during monitoring campaigns. In this study, in addition to field data (Case A), meteorological variables (Case B) and satellite data (Case C) were used to predict chlorophyll-a in Lake Llanquihue. The models used were SARIMAX, LSTM, and RNN, all of which showed generally good statistics for the prediction of the chlorophyll-a variable. Model validation metrics showed that all three models effectively predicted chlorophyll as an indicator of the presence of algae in water bodies. Coefficient of determination values ranging from 0.64 to 0.93 were obtained, with the LSTM model showing the best statistics in any of the cases tested. The LSTM model generally performed well across most stations, with lower values for MSE (<0.260 (μg/L)²), RMSE (<0.510 ug/L), MaxError (<0.730 μg/L), and MAE (<0.442 μg/L). This model, which combines machine learning and remote sensing techniques, is applicable to other Chilean and world lakes that have similar characteristics. In addition, it is a starting point for decision-makers in the protection and conservation of water resource quality.

The world’s water ecosystems have been affected by various human activities. Artificial intelligence techniques, especially machine learning, have become an important tool for predicting the water quality of inland aquatic ecosystems. As an excellent biological indicator, chlorophyll-a was studied to determine the state of water quality in Lake Llanquihue, located in southern Chile. A 31-year time series (1989 to 2020) of data collected in situ was used to determine the evolution of limnological parameters at eight spaced stations covering all of the main points of the lake, and the year, month, day, and hour time intervals were selected. Using machine learning techniques, out of eight estimation algorithms that were applied with real data to estimate chlorophyll-a, three models showed better performance (XGBoost, LightGBM, and AdaBoost). The results for the best models show excellent performance, with a coefficient of determination between 0.81 and 0.99, a root-mean-square error of between 0.03 ug/L and 0.46 ug/L, and a mean bias error of between 0.01 and 0.27 ug/L. These models are scalable and applicable to other lake systems of interest that present similar conditions and can support decision making related to water resources.

In this study, we employ in situ, meteorological, and remote sensing data to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration at different depths in a South American freshwater ecosystem, focusing specifically on a lake in southern Chile known as Lake Maihue. For our analysis, we explored four different scenarios using three deep learning and traditional statistical models. These scenarios involved using field data (Scenario 1), meteorological variables (Scenario 2), and satellite data (Scenarios 3.1 and 3.2) to predict chlorophyll-a levels in Lake Maihue at three different depths (0, 15, and 30 m). Our choice of models included SARIMAX, DGLM, and LSTM, all of which showed promising statistical performance in predicting chlorophyll-a concentrations in this lake. Validation metrics for these models indicated their effectiveness in predicting chlorophyll levels, which serve as valuable indicators of the presence of algae in the water body. The coefficient of determination values ranged from 0.30 to 0.98, with the DGLM model showing the most favorable statistics in all scenarios tested. It is worth noting that the LSTM model yielded comparatively lower metrics, mainly due to the limitations of the available training data. The models employed, which use traditional statistical and machine learning models and meteorological and remote sensing data, have great potential for application in lakes in Chile and the rest of the world with similar characteristics. In addition, these results constitute a fundamental resource for decision-makers involved in the protection and conservation of water resource quality.