OJ 287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R-band. Based on Swift/XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ 287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ 287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ 287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ 287's central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole “no-hair theorem” at the 10% level.

We present the results from a full polarization study carried out with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) during the first Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) campaign, which was conducted in 2017 April in the λ3 mm and λ1.3 mm bands, in concert with the Global mm-VLBI Array (GMVA) and the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), respectively. We determine the polarization and Faraday properties of all VLBI targets, including Sgr A*, M87, and a dozen radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs), in the two bands at several epochs in a time window of 10 days. We detect high linear polarization fractions (2%–15%) and large rotation measures (RM > 10^3.3–10^5.5 rad m⁻²), confirming the trends of previous AGN studies at millimeter wavelengths. We find that blazars are more strongly polarized than other AGNs in the sample, while exhibiting (on average) order-of-magnitude lower RM values, consistent with the AGN viewing angle unification scheme. For Sgr A* we report a mean RM of (−4.2 ± 0.3) × 10⁵ rad m⁻² at 1.3 mm, consistent with measurements over the past decade and, for the first time, an RM of (–2.1 ± 0.1) × 10⁵ rad m⁻² at 3 mm, suggesting that about half of the Faraday rotation at 1.3 mm may occur between the 3 mm photosphere and the 1.3 mm source. We also report the first unambiguous measurement of RM toward the M87 nucleus at millimeter wavelengths, which undergoes significant changes in magnitude and sign reversals on a one year timescale, spanning the range from −1.2 to 0.3 × 10⁵ rad m⁻² at 3 mm and −4.1 to 1.5 × 10⁵ rad m⁻² at 1.3 mm. Given this time variability, we argue that, unlike the case of Sgr A*, the RM in M87 does not provide an accurate estimate of the mass accretion rate onto the black hole. We put forward a two-component model, comprised of a variable compact region and a static extended region, that can simultaneously explain the polarimetric properties observed by both the EHT (on horizon scales) and ALMA (which observes the combined emission from both components). These measurements provide critical constraints for the calibration, analysis, and interpretation of simultaneously obtained VLBI data with the EHT and GMVA.

Binary black hole (BH) central engine description for the unique blazar OJ 287 predicted that the next secondary BH impact-induced bremsstrahlung flare should peak on 2019 July 31. This prediction was based on detailed general relativistic modeling of the secondary BH trajectory around the primary BH and its accretion disk. The expected flare was termed the Eddington flare to commemorate the centennial celebrations of now-famous solar eclipse observations to test general relativity by Sir Arthur Eddington. We analyze the multi-epoch Spitzer observations of the expected flare between 2019 July 31 and 2019 September 6, as well as baseline observations during 2019 February–March. Observed Spitzer flux density variations during the predicted outburst time display a strong similarity with the observed optical pericenter flare from OJ 287 during 2007 September. The predicted flare appears comparable to the 2007 flare after subtracting the expected higher base-level Spitzer flux densities at 3.55 and 4.49 μm compared to the optical R-band. Comparing the 2019 and 2007 outburst lightcurves and the previously calculated predictions, we find that the Eddington flare arrived within 4 hr of the predicted time. Our Spitzer observations are well consistent with the presence of a nano-Hertz gravitational-wave emitting spinning massive binary BH that inspirals along a general relativistic eccentric orbit in OJ 287. These multi-epoch Spitzer observations provide a parametric constraint on the celebrated BH no-hair theorem.