Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.
We present satellite measurements of the thermal flux observed from 95 active volcanoes, based on observations made daily over the past 15 years by NASA's Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors. Excursions from an apparent baseline level of thermal emission are attributable to episodic lava‐flow‐forming eruptions. Highest average intensity was associated with the July 2001 eruption of Etna, Italy, which radiated an average of 2.5 × 109 W over 23 days. However, recent fissure eruptions in the Afar Rift have attained higher average intensities of 2.4–4.4 × 109 W, albeit for days, not weeks. The largest magnitude eruption was the ongoing eruption of Bardarbunga, Iceland, which radiated 2.6 × 1016 J. Kīlauea, Hawai'i, has radiated the most energy since 2000, although the lava lake at Nyiragongo, Democratic Republic of Congo, comes a close second. Time series analysis reveals evidence for periodicity in radiant flux at some volcanoes but not at others.
During the past decade an average of 60 volcanoes erupted each year, around 20 of which were erupting on any given day. Some of these, such as Erta Ale in Ethiopia, are persistently active, whereas others, such as Bezymianny in Russia, erupt more sporadically. Satellite remote sensing offers a convenient way to monitor changes in the thermal budgets of these volcanoes from space. Using data acquired by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, we show how the amount of heat radiated into the Earth's atmosphere by 65 active volcanoes has varied between 26 February 2000 and 31 December 2006. We find that the radiant volcanic heat flux into the atmosphere occurs at a relatively steady‐state baseline level, superimposed on which are large thermal emission ‘spikes’. These anomalous emission events are associated with the emplacement of basaltic ‘a’a lava flows at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, Italy, and Nyamuragira, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We also demonstrate how these data can be used to estimate lava effusion rates during effusive eruptions, and magma flux rates at persistently active volcanoes that host active lava lakes.
Transgenic corn and cotton that produce Cry and Vip3Aa toxins derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) are widely planted in the United States to control lepidopteran pests. The sustainability of these Bt crops is threatened because the corn earworm/bollworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), is evolving a resistance to these toxins. Using Bt sweet corn as a sentinel plant to monitor the evolution of resistance, collaborators established 146 trials in twenty-five states and five Canadian provinces during 2020–2022. The study evaluated overall changes in the phenotypic frequency of resistance (the ratio of larval densities in Bt ears relative to densities in non-Bt ears) in H. zea populations and the range of resistance allele frequencies for Cry1Ab and Vip3Aa. The results revealed a widespread resistance to Cry1Ab, Cry2Ab2, and Cry1A.105 Cry toxins, with higher numbers of larvae surviving in Bt ears than in non-Bt ears at many trial locations. Depending on assumptions about the inheritance of resistance, allele frequencies for Cry1Ab ranged from 0.465 (dominant resistance) to 0.995 (recessive resistance). Although Vip3Aa provided high control efficacy against H. zea, the results show a notable increase in ear damage and a number of surviving older larvae, particularly at southern locations. Assuming recessive resistance, the estimated resistance allele frequencies for Vip3Aa ranged from 0.115 in the Gulf states to 0.032 at more northern locations. These findings indicate that better resistance management practices are urgently needed to sustain efficacy the of corn and cotton that produce Vip3Aa.