Models constitute the primary approaches for predicting terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) at regional and global scales. Many satellite-based GPP models have been developed due to the simple algorithms and the low requirements of model inputs. The performances of these models are well documented at the biome level. However, their performances among vegetation subtypes limited by different environmental stresses within a biome remains largely unexplored. Taking grasslands in northern China as an example, we compared the performance of eight satellite-based GPP models, including three light-use efficiency (LUE) models (vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM), modified VPM (MVPM), and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer GPP algorithm (MODIS-GPP)) and five statistical models (temperature and greenness model (TG), greenness and radiation model (GR), vegetation index model (VI), alpine vegetation model (AVM), and photosynthetic capacity model (PCM)), between the water-limited temperate steppe and the temperature-limited alpine meadow based on 16 site-year GPP estimates at four eddy covariance (EC) flux towers. The results showed that all the GPP models performed better in the alpine meadow, particularly in the alpine shrub meadow (R² ≥ 0.84), than in the temperate steppe (R² ≤ 0.68). The performance varied greatly among the models in the temperate steppe, while slight intermodel differences existed in the alpine meadow. Overall, MVPM (of the LUE models) and VI (of the statistical models) were the two best-performing models in the temperate steppe due to their better representation of the effect of water stress on vegetation productivity. Additionally, we found that the relatively worse model performances in the temperate steppe were seriously exaggerated by drought events, which may occur more frequently in the future. This study highlights the varying performances of satellite-based GPP models among vegetation subtypes of a biome in different precipitation years and suggests priorities for improving the water stress variables of these models in future efforts.

Aims: Prediction of changes in ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to climatic variability is a core mission in the field of global change ecology. However, it remains a big challenge for the model community to reproduce the interannual variation (IAV) of GPP in arid ecosystems. Accurate estimates of soil water content (SWC) and GPP sensitivity to SWC are the two most critical aspects for predicting the IAV of GPP in arid ecosystems.Methods: We took a widely used model Biome-BGC as an example, to improve the model performances in a temperate grassland ecosystem. Firstly, we updated the estimation of SWC by modifying modules of evapotranspiration, SWC vertical profile and field capacity. Secondly, we modified the function of controlling water–nitrogen relation, which regulates the GPP–SWC sensitivity.Important Findings: The original Biome-BGC overestimated the SWC and underestimated the IAV of GPP sensitivity, resulting in lower IAV of GPP than the observations, e.g. it largely underestimated the reduction of GPP in drought years. In comparison, the modified model accurately reproduced the observed seasonal and IAVs in SWC, especially in the surface layer. Simulated GPP–SWC sensitivity was also enhanced and became closer to the observations by optimizing parameter controlling nitrogen mineralization. Consequently, the model’s capability of reproducing IAV of GPP has been largely improved by the modifications. Our results demonstrate that SWC in the surface layer and the consequent effects on nitrogen availability should be among the first considerations for accurate modeling IAV of GPP in arid ecosystems.

The escalation in the population of livestock coupled with inadequate precipitation has caused a reduction in pasture biomass, thereby resulting in diminished grassland carrying capacity (GCC) and pasture degradation. In this research, net primary productivity (NPP) data, sourced from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets from 1982 to 2020, were initially transformed into aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates. These estimates were subsequently utilized to evaluate and assess the long-term trends of GCC across Mongolia. The MODIS data indicated an upward trend in AGB from 2000 to 2020, whereas the GLASS data reflected a downward trend from 1982 to 2018. Between 1982 and 2020, climatic analysis uncovered robust positive correlations between AGB and precipitation (R > 0.80) and negative correlations with temperature (R < −0.60). These climatic alterations have led to a reduction in AGB, further impairing the regenerative capacity of grasslands. Concurrently, livestock numbers have generally increased since 1982, with a decrease in certain years due to dzud and summer drought, leading to the increase in the GCC. GCC assessment found that 37.5% of grasslands experienced severe overgrazing and 31.9–40.7% was within sustainable limits. Spatially, the eastern region of Mongolia could sustainably support current livestock numbers; the western and southern regions, as well as parts of northern Mongolia, have exhibited moderate to critical levels of grassland utilization. A detailed analysis of GCC dynamics and its climatic impacts would offer scientific support for policymakers in managing grasslands in the Mongolian Plateau.