Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB) after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray) as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions.

Background and goals Climate change is a growing concern for winegrape producers worldwide. Increasing temperatures may accelerate grapevine development, which can change the timing of key phenology stages and affect final crop quantity and quality. Many researchers have explored the relationships between grapevine physiology and temperature-based phenology models. However, these models perform inconsistently from one region to another, especially when models calibrated in one context are applied where pedoclimatic factors and vineyard management methods differ. Methods and key findings Temperature-based phenological models were calibrated using observed grapevine phenology dates from 2012 to 2021 for 18 commercial Pinot noir vineyards across Oregon’s Willamette Valley. Model performance during cross-validation was assessed using root mean squared error, model efficiency, and % accuracy. Resulting models were used to project phenology dates from 2020 to 2100 under four climate change scenarios. By the end of century, mean bloom, veraison, and harvest dates were projected to occur 1 to 2 wk (low-emissions scenarios) and 3 to 4 wk (high-emissions scenarios) earlier than current averages. Budbreak dates are projected to advance ~10 days for most emissions scenarios. Conclusions and significance These results represent valuable information that Willamette Valley winegrape producers can use to anticipate challenges and make informed decisions to address potential long-term climate change impacts.