Despite the usefulness of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in the study of various complex problems, ANNs have not been applied for modeling the geographic distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in the US. Likewise, ecological level researches on TB incidence rate at the national level are inadequate for epidemiologic inferences. We collected 278 exploratory variables including environmental and a broad range of socio-economic features for modeling the disease across the continental US. The spatial pattern of the disease distribution was statistically evaluated using the global Moran’s I, Getis–Ord General G, and local Gi* statistics. Next, we investigated the applicability of multilayer perceptron (MLP) ANN for predicting the disease incidence. To avoid overfitting, L1 regularization was used before developing the models. Predictive performance of the MLP was compared with linear regression for test dataset using root mean square error, mean absolute error, and correlations between model output and ground truth. Results of clustering analysis showed that there is a significant spatial clustering of smoothed TB incidence rate (p < 0.05) and the hotspots were mainly located in the southern and southeastern parts of the country. Among the developed models, single hidden layer MLP had the best test accuracy. Sensitivity analysis of the MLP model showed that immigrant population (proportion), underserved segments of the population, and minimum temperature were among the factors with the strongest contributions. The findings of this study can provide useful insight to health authorities on prioritizing resource allocation to risk-prone areas.

Botswana significantly reduced its malaria burden between 2000 and 2012. Incidence dropped from 0.99 to 0.01 % and deaths attributed to malaria declined from 12 to 3. The country initiated elimination strategies in October 2012. We examine the progress and challenges during implementation and identify future needs for a successful program in Botswana. A national, rapid notification and response strategy was developed. Cases detected through the routine passive surveillance system at health facilities were intended to initiate screening of contacts around a positive case during follow up. Positive cases were reported to district health management teams to activate district rapid response teams (DRRT). The health facility and the DRRT were to investigate the cases, and screen household members within 100 m of case households within 48 h of notification using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and microscopy. Positive malaria cases detected in health facilities were used for spatial analysis. There were 1808 malaria cases recorded in Botswana during 26 months from October, 2012 to December, 2014. Males were more frequently infected (59 %) than females. Most cases (60 %) were reported from Okavango district which experienced an outbreak in 2013 and 2014. Among the factors creating challenges for malaria eradication, only 1148 cases (63.5 %) were captured by the required standardized notification forms. In total, 1080 notified cases were diagnosed by RDT. Of the positive malaria cases, only 227 (12.6 %) were monitored at the household level. One hundred (8.7 %) cases were associated with national or transnational movement of patients. Local movements of infected individuals within Botswana accounted for 31 cases while 69 (6.01 %) cases were imported from other countries. Screening individuals in and around index households identified 37 additional, asymptomatic infections. Oscillating, sporadic and new malaria hot-spots were detected in Botswana during the study period. Botswana’s experience shows some of the practical challenges of elimination efforts. Among them are the substantial movements of human infections within and among countries, and the persistence of asymptomatic reservoir infections. Programmatically, challenges include improving the speed of communicating and improving the thoroughness when responding to newly identified cases. The country needs further sustainable interventions to target infections if it is to successfully achieve its elimination goal.

An analysis of the risk factors and seasonal and spatial distribution of individuals with subclinical malaria in hypoendemic Bangladesh was performed. From 2009 to 2012, active malaria surveillance without regard to symptoms was conducted on a random sample (n=3971) and pregnant women (n=589) during a cohort malaria study in a population of 24000. The overall subclinical Plasmodium falciparum malaria point prevalence was 1.0% (n=35), but was 3.2% (n=18) for pregnant women. The estimated incidence was 39.9 per 1000 person-years for the overall population. Unlike symptomatic malaria, with a marked seasonal pattern, subclinical infections did not show a seasonal increase during the rainy season. Sixty-nine percent of those with subclinical P. falciparum infections reported symptoms commonly associated with malaria compared to 18% without infection. Males, pregnant women, jhum cultivators, and those living closer to forests and at higher elevations had a higher prevalence of subclinical infection. Hypoendemic subclinical malaria infections were associated with a number of household and demographic factors, similar to symptomatic cases. Unlike clinical symptomatic malaria, which is highly seasonal, these actively detected infections were present year-round, made up the vast majority of infections at any given time, and likely acted as reservoirs for continued transmission.

Norway rats are an abundant synanthropic species in urban settings and serve as reservoirs for many pathogens. Attempts to control their populations have met with little success. Recent genetic studies suggest that local populations are structured and few individuals move significant distances, but there is substantial gene flow. To understand these observations and their implications on control strategies, we genotyped 722 rats from 20 alleys in Baltimore to establish paternity for 180 embryos. Up to 88 males may have contributed to the litters. All litters were sired by ≥2 males, with an average of 4.9 (range 2–7) males. For dams and sires with known locations, most matings (71.7%; n = 46) occurred among animals from different alleys. The average distance between sires and dams was 114 meters (range 8–352 meters). In 10/17 (58.8%) litters, the majority of the identified sires were captured in different alleys than the females. Sires were significantly less related to females than were the males captured in the females' alleys. Although rats may generally restrict their movements, either receptive females and/or breeding males engage in mate-seeking behaviors that extend beyond movement patterns at other times. This geographically extends the sizes of local populations and buffers them from the impacts of control strategies that focus on local infestations.

Within the past three decades, new bacterial etiological agents of tick-borne disease have been discovered in the southeastern U.S., and the number of reported tick-borne pathogen infections has increased. In Florida, few systematic studies have been conducted to determine the presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens. This investigation examined the distribution and presence of tick-borne bacterial pathogens in Florida. Ticks were collected by flagging at 41 field sites, spanning the climatic regions of mainland Florida. DNA was extracted individually from 1608 ticks and screened for Anaplasma, Borrelia, Ehrlichia and Rickettsia using conventional PCR and primers that amplified multiple species for each genus. PCR positive samples were Sanger sequenced. Four species of ticks were collected: Amblyomma americanum, Amblyomma maculatum, Dermacentor variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis. Within these ticks, six bacterial species were identified: Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia lonestari, Ehrlichia ewingii, Rickettsia amblyommatis, Rickettsia andeanae, Rickettsia parkeri, and Rickettsia endosymbionts. Pathogenic Borrelia, Ehrlichia, and Rickettsia species were all detected in the North and North-Central Florida counties; however, we found only moderate concordance between the distribution of ticks infected with pathogenic bacteria and human cases of tick-borne diseases in Florida. Given the diversity and numerous bacterial species detected in ticks in Florida, further investigations should be conducted to identify regional hotspots of tick-borne pathogens.