Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve. We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3-5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death. 12,887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11,718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34,718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4-2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9-15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56-5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4-19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56-1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61-0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81-0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95-1·13). Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia. Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV.

Background. Psychiatric epidemiological surveys in China have repeatedly found much lower prevalence estimates than in most other parts of the world.Method. Face-to-face household interviews of 5201 subjects (2633 in Beijing and 2568 in Shanghai respectively) were conducted from November 2001 to February 2002 using a multistage household probability sampling method. A Chinese version of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used for assessment.Results. Twelve-month prevalence of any DSM-IV mental disorder in metropolitan China is estimated to be 7·0%, with major depressive disorder (2·0%), specific phobia (1·9%), and intermittent explosive disorder (1·7%) the most common disorders. Of these, 13·9% are classified as serious, 32·6% moderate, and 53·5% mild. Only 3·4% of respondents with any disorder sought treatment within the previous 12 months.Conclusions. Although the general pattern of disorders, risk factors, and unmet need for treatment are similar to those in other countries, a low prevalence of mental disorders is found in metropolitan China. Resolving methodological problems that cause downward bias in estimates, such as stigma-related under-reporting and diagnostic incongruity with a somatopsychic mode of symptom presentation may lead to more accurate and probably higher prevalence estimates in future epidemiological studies. As a low prevalence still translates into an enormous number of people in China, measures are urgently needed to address the huge unmet need for treatment of mental disorders.

Objectives Despite the growing importance of stroke in developing countries, little is known of stroke burden in survivors. The authors investigated the prevalence of self-reported stroke, stroke-related disability, dependence and care-giver strain in Latin America (LA), China and India. Methods Cross-sectional surveys were conducted on individuals aged 65+ (n=15 022) living in specified catchment areas. Self-reported stroke diagnosis, disability, care needs and care giver burden were assessed using a standardised protocol. For those reporting stroke, the correlates of disability, dependence and care-giver burden were estimated at each site using Poisson or linear regression, and combined meta-analytically. Results The prevalence of self-reported stroke ranged between 6% and 9% across most LA sites and urban China, but was much lower in urban India (1.9%), and in rural sites in India (1.1%), China (1.6%) and Peru (2.7%). The proportion of stroke survivors needing care varied between 20% and 39% in LA sites but was higher in rural China (44%), urban China (54%) and rural India (73%). Comorbid dementia and depression were the main correlates of disability and dependence. Conclusion The prevalence of stroke in urban LA and Chinese sites is nearly as high as in industrialised countries. High levels of disability and dependence in the other mainly rural and less-developed sites suggest underascertainment of less severe cases as one likely explanation for the lower prevalence in those settings. As the health transition proceeds, a further increase in numbers of older stroke survivors is to be anticipated. In addition to prevention, stroke rehabilitation and long-term care needs should be addressed.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has reframed health and healthcare for older people around achieving the goal of healthy ageing. The recent WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) guidelines focus on maintaining intrinsic capacity, i.e., addressing declines in neuromusculoskeletal, vitality, sensory, cognitive, psychological, and continence domains, aiming to prevent or delay the onset of dependence. The target group with 1 or more declines in intrinsic capacity (DICs) is broad, and implementation may be challenging in less-resourced settings. We aimed to inform planning by assessing intrinsic capacity prevalence, by characterising the target group, and by validating the general approach—testing hypotheses that DIC was consistently associated with higher risks of incident dependence and death.Methods and findings: We conducted population-based cohort studies (baseline, 2003–2007) in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, India, and China. Door-knocking identified eligible participants, aged 65 years and over and normally resident in each geographically defined catchment area. Sociodemographic, behaviour and lifestyle, health, and healthcare utilisation and cost questionnaires, and physical assessments were administered to all participants, with incident dependence and mortality ascertained 3 to 5 years later (2008–2010). In 12 sites in 8 countries, 17,031 participants were surveyed at baseline. Overall mean age was 74.2 years, range of means by site 71.3–76.3 years; 62.4% were female, range 53.4%–67.3%. At baseline, only 30% retained full capacity across all domains. The proportion retaining capacity fell sharply with increasing age, and declines affecting multiple domains were more common. Poverty, morbidity (particularly dementia, depression, and stroke), and disability were concentrated among those with DIC, although only 10% were frail, and a further 9% had needs for care. Hypertension and lifestyle risk factors for chronic disease, and healthcare utilisation and costs, were more evenly distributed in the population. In total, 15,901 participants were included in the mortality cohort (2,602 deaths/53,911 person-years of follow-up), and 12,939 participants in the dependence cohort (1,896 incident cases/38,320 person-years). One or more DICs strongly and independently predicted incident dependence (pooled adjusted subhazard ratio 1.91, 95% CI 1.69–2.17) and death (pooled adjusted hazard ratio 1.66, 95% CI 1.49–1.85). Relative risks were higher for those who were frail, but were also substantially elevated for the much larger sub-groups yet to become frail. Mortality was mainly concentrated in the frail and dependent sub-groups. The main limitations were potential for DIC exposure misclassification and attrition bias.Conclusions: In this study we observed a high prevalence of DICs, particularly in older age groups. Those affected had substantially increased risks of dependence and death. Most needs for care arose in those with DIC yet to become frail. Our findings provide some support for the strategy of optimising intrinsic capacity in pursuit of healthy ageing. Implementation at scale requires community-based screening and assessment, and a stepped-care intervention approach, with redefined roles for community healthcare workers and efforts to engage, train, and support them in these tasks. ICOPE might be usefully integrated into community programmes for detecting and case managing chronic diseases including hypertension and diabetes.

Background: Previous surveys on depression in China focused on prevalence estimates without providing a detailed epidemiological profile.Method: Face-to-face household interviews were conducted with a multi-stage household probability sample of 2633 adults (age ⩾18 years) in Beijing and 2568 in Shanghai between November 2001 and February 2002. The World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess major depressive episode (MDE) according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-IV criteria.Results: The lifetime prevalence and 1-year prevalence estimates of DSM-IV/CIDI MDE were 3.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8–4.4%] and 1.8% (95% CI 1.2–2.4%) respectively. No significant gender difference was found in these estimates. Respondents born in 1967 or later were at elevated lifetime risk compared with respondents born in earlier cohorts. The mean age of onset was 30.3 years. Among those reporting 1-year MDE, 15.7, 51.8, 25.3 and 6.4% reported mild, moderate, severe and very severe symptoms respectively; 4.8, 2.6 and 3.2% reported suicidal ideation, plans, and recent attempts in the same year respectively. Respondents with 1-year MDE reported a mean of 27.5 days out of role owing to their depression in the year before interview. Significant co-morbidity was found between MDE and other mental disorders [odds ratio (OR) 22.0] and chronic physical disorders (OR 3.2). Only 22.7% of respondents with 1-year MDE sought treatment.Conclusions: The low prevalence and insignificant gender difference, but not patterns of onset, course, co-morbidity, and impairment, distinguish the epidemiological profile of MDE in metropolitan China from those in other countries.