It is generally accepted, but not experimentally proven, that a quantitative prediction of volcanic eruptions is possible from the evaluation of volcanic gas data. By discussing the results of two years of real-time observation of H2O, CO2, and SO2 in volcanic gases from Mount Etna volcano, we unambiguously demonstrate that increasing CO2/SO2 ratios can allow detection of the pre-eruptive degassing of rising magmas. Quantitative modeling by the use of a saturation model allows us to relate the pre-eruptive increases of the CO2/SO2 ratio to the refilling of Etna's shallow conduits with CO2-rich deep-reservoir magmas, leading to pressurization and triggering of eruption. The advent of real-time observations of H2O, CO2, and SO2, combined with well-constrained models of degassing, represents a step forward in eruption forecasting
We report the first measurements of volcanic gases with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The data were collected at La Fossa crater, Vulcano, Italy, during April 2007, with a helicopter UAV of 3 kg payload, carrying an ultraviolet spectrometer for remotely sensing the SO2 flux (8.5 Mg d−1), and an infrared spectrometer, and electrochemical sensor assembly for measuring the plume CO2/SO2 ratio; by multiplying these data we compute a CO2 flux of 170 Mg d−1. Given the deeper exsolution of carbon dioxide from magma, and its lower solubility in hydrothermal systems, relative to SO2, the ability to remotely measure CO2 fluxes is significant, with promise to provide more profound geochemical insights, and earlier eruption forecasts, than possible with SO2 fluxes alone: the most ubiquitous current source of remotely sensed volcanic gas data.
1 May 2009 in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research