Assessing the spatio-temporal variability and driving forces of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is critical for ecological and environmental management. In this paper, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, the patch-generating land use simulation, and the Geographical Detector are used to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the Loess Plateau’s soil erosion from 2000 to 2050. The results showed that: (1) The primary categories of soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 were moderate, mild, and slight, and the average level of soil erosion exhibited a decreasing and then an increasing tendency during the last 20 years. (2) Soil erosion was directly impacted by changes in land use, with cropland and forest being the primary land use and land cover changes in the study region. Cropland and construction land being turned into woodland between 2000 and 2020 resulted in a significant decrease in the severity of soil erosion. Projected soil erosion is expected to increase significantly between 2020 and 2050 due to arable land being converted into construction land. (3) The key variables impacting the spatial distribution of soil erosion were LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and slope, and the interplay of these variables may increase their ability to explain soil erosion. Grasslands with an NDVI ranging from 0.9 to 1, rain ranging from 0.805 to 0.854 m, a slope above 35°, and a terrain elevation ranging from 1595 to 2559 m were identified as having a high risk of soil erosion. Soil erosion prevention and management efforts should focus on the ecological restoration of upland areas in the future.

The study area was the Hulunbuir Plateau in northeastern China, based on a natural resource element observation study. The assessment of the spatial and temporal variation of soil erosion is crucial for implementing environmental management in the fragile ecosystem of the Hulunbuir Plateau. The study provides an interesting basis for soil erosion control on the Hulunbuir Plateau and other areas with similar climatic conditions, with the aim of providing sound data to support environmental protection policies in the study area. In this study, the spatial and temporal variations in soil erosion in the region from 2000 to 2020 were quantitatively assessed using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Furthermore, the patch-generating land use simulation model predicted future soil erosion. Land use prediction data were examined using Kappa coefficients. The prediction of future land use types using CMIP6 data and natural social data in the PLUS model were used to predict soil erosion for different future scenarios. The results showed that the soil erosion rate on the Hulunbuir Plateau showed a significant increasing trend in time from 2000 to 2020. Spatially, soil erosion increases gradually from the west to the east. Soil erosion occurs mainly on grasslands, while cultivated lands show a significant increasing trend by 2020. Slope erosion occurs mainly in areas between 15° and 35°. From 2020 to 2050, soil erosion will increase significantly due to increased precipitation. The soil erosion in SSP2–4.5 is better than the other scenarios.

As a core and priority region of the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project, the mountainous area of northern Hebei plays a critical role in restraining desertification and ensuring the ecological security and sustainable development of the capital region. To reveal the ecosystem service flow mechanism of windbreak and sand fixation and support regional ecological sustainability, this study first used the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to evaluate the spatial distribution of windbreak and sand-fixation services in northern Hebei mountainous area. Then, the HYSPLIT model was applied to simulate the spatial flow paths, identify the radiation scope, and quantify the radiation intensity of these ecosystem services. The results reflect the modeled patterns under given assumptions rather than fully verified actual ecosystem service supply. In 2024, the total amount of windbreak and sand-fixation service in the study area reached 10.3553 × 10⁶ tons. Sand-dust weather mainly occurred in spring and autumn, accounting for 39.23% and 33.46% of the total, respectively. The spatial flow paths were dominated by the northwest pathway (43.01%) and west pathway (38.17%). The total radiation scope of windbreak and sand-fixation services was 396.16 × 10⁴ km², among which 342.96 × 10⁴ km² was within the study area, accounting for 86.57%. The average service density was 21.06 kg/hm². The service density along flow paths decreased with increasing transport distance, while the radiation scope expanded with the increase in trajectory frequency. Spatially, the sand-fixation material density showed a circular decreasing trend from the center to the periphery of the study area. This study clarifies the flow characteristics and radiation benefits of windbreak and sand-fixation ecosystem services, which can provide a scientific basis for regional ecological protection, ecosystem service management, and the promotion of regional ecological sustainability.