Understanding future trends and identifying characteristic differences in regional ecosystem services (ESs), in addition to ecological zoning, is vital for promoting the adjustment of ecological policy and the construction of sustainable ecosystems. Based on shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP–RCP), the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) in 2030 was simulated by using a patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS) in this study. Water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and food product were simulated through the comprehensive evaluation model combining ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST). The comprehensive supply capacity of ESs was assessed. The ecological risk level was calculated by comparing the changes in the integrated supply capacity of ESs in 2020 and under each SSP–RCP scenario in 2030, and ecological zoning was established using a two-dimensional discriminant matrix. The results are as follows: (1) The degradation of grassland and cropland accompanied by an increase in construction land and forest to varying degrees will be the common characteristics of the three SSP–RCP scenarios in BTH. (2) Water yield and carbon storage services will exhibit an upward tendency only under SSP1-2.6, while habitat quality and food product services will exhibit a downward trend under three SSP–RCP scenarios. Obvious geographical heterogeneity exists in the comprehensive supply capacity of ESs. (3) Zones with low ecological risks will mainly be distributed in some counties of Zhangjiakou city, while zones with high ecological risks will account for a large proportion of the whole. There will be great ecological risks in the BTH overall. (4) The BTH was split into four types of ecological zones based on supply and risk. These zones comprise the ecological enhancement zone, ecological restoration zone, ecological sensitive zone, and ecological conservation zone. Corresponding control measures were also proposed. The findings of this study can be used to inform the formulation and improvement of environmental conservation policies.

Clarifying the constituent elements of agricultural land quality, carrying out multi-dimensional quality evaluation of agricultural land, and implementing precise land consolidation and utilization zoning all have important guiding significance for achieving efficient utilization of agricultural land in China. This work analyzed the multi-dimensional evaluation framework of agricultural land based on its comprehensive quality elements and the production, ecological, and health functions. This paper constructed a multi-dimensional agricultural land “production–ecology–health” quality evaluation index system and evaluation criteria, and carried out a multi-dimensional quality evaluation of agricultural land in Huanghua City, Hebei Province, China. The spatial superposition of each dimension′s evaluation results, combined with the logical relationship between agricultural land use and each dimension′s quality, realized the renovation and utilization zoning of agricultural land. The results are as follows: (1) The production, ecological, and health qualities of agricultural land in Huanghua City were below the average and there is spatial variability, whose proportions of grade III and below were 63.12, 66.23, and 69.32%, respectively. In addition, low score areas are mainly located in the south and northwest of the study area. (2) The obstacle factors to quality in different dimensions were different: The obstacle factors to production quality were matter content, soil pH, irrigation guarantee rate, and alkaline hydrolysis nitrogen; groundwater salinity and depth, soil pH, and chemical fertilizers consumption for ecological quality; and groundwater salinity and depth and soil pH for health quality. (3) Agricultural land in Huanghua city is divided into five types of remediation, including 30,277.34 hm² for high efficiency utilization area, 10,576.54 hm² for production quality cultivation area, 34,387.86 hm² for health quality cultivation area, and 56,311.22 hm² for comprehensive consolidation and restoration area; special remediation measures are proposed for different types of zones. The work improves the multi-objective quality evaluation index system for agricultural land and implements differentiated land remediation strategies by identifying obstacle factors through zoning. It provides methodological ideas to improve the efficiency of land remediation and utilization.

Global food security remains under severe strain, and the conversion of cultivated land to non-grain uses poses a significant threat to the stability of food production capacity. Driven by mineral development and urbanization, the risk of non-grain conversion in resource-based counties has increased. This study selected Qian’an City as the study area to accurately identify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of non-grain production at the county scale. GF-1 satellite (China Centre for Resources Satellite Data and Application, Beijing, China) imagery from 2016, 2020, and 2024 was employed, integrated with a vegetation index, multi-scale segmentation, and a decision tree model. Non-grain conversion rate measurement, spatial trend surface analysis, and kernel density estimation were then applied for analysis. The results were as follows. (1) The high-precision identification system for the non-grain conversion of cultivated land accurately distinguished grain crops from non-grain land uses, achieving an overall accuracy of over 91%. (2) The process of non-grain conversion of cultivated land in Qian’an City showed significant stage characteristics. The non-grain conversion area first increased and then decreased, with the non-grain rate fluctuating from 49.38 to 53.48% before declining to 46.62%. (3) The driving mechanism exhibited a phased evolution: from natural economy-led, to policy-driven strong intervention, and finally to market location-led. In 2016, the terrain undulation (q = 0.63) and GDP (q = 0.551) were dominant. In 2020, the proportion of ecological protection red line area (q = 0.539) took the lead. By 2024, GDP (q = 0.66) and the distance from the main road (q = 0.544) were dominant. This reflected the coupling effect of market and location within the policy baseline and interpreted the dynamic evolution of cultivated land use management. The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of non-grain conversion for cultivated land were quantitatively revealed. The findings provide a scientific basis and decision support for regional cultivated land protection, food security, and optimal allocation of land resources.