The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960–1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest’s highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km², and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain.

Conogethes punctiferalis (Guenée, 1854) is a polyphagous pest with a wide host range and strong reproductive ability, and its potential threat to agricultural production cannot be ignored. Based on the optimized maximum entropy niche model, this study evaluated potential suitable habitats for C. punctiferalis in China and their dynamic changes under current conditions (Model 1: bioclimatic factors + elevation; Model 2: bioclimatic factors + elevation + human activity) and four different future climate scenarios (Model 3: bioclimatic factors + elevation + human activity). The results suggest that the potential suitable habitats for C. punctiferalis are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and human activity. Under current conditions, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in southern Northeast China, North China, the Yangtze River Basin, and its south regions; highly suitable areas are primarily located in the main maize-producing regions of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The area of suitable habitats predicted by Model 2 is smaller than that predicted by Model 1. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution range of C. punctiferalis will show an expanding trend, with the expanded area larger than the contracted area. Compared with Model 2, the suitable areas are expected to increase under Model 3 by approximately 91,799 km² to 723,711 km². This study provides an important basis for assessing the potential hazard risk of C. punctiferalis and is of major significance in guiding the formulation of targeted integrated pest management strategies and protecting the safety of agricultural production.