In May 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) caused by Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV), for which no licensed vaccine or antiviral treatment was available. We analysed the epidemic trajectory through 14 July 2026 and developed conditional six-month projections. Aggregated data from official INSP/COUSP Situation Reports (14 May–14 July 2026), supplemented by WHO and UN reports, were used to describe cases, deaths, case-fatality ratios (CFRs), and geographic spread. Log-linear models estimated phase-specific growth rates and doubling times; logistic, Gompertz, and constant-incidence scenarios were used for projections, with model comparison, Bayesian sensitivity analysis, deterministic sensitivity bounds, CFR confidence intervals, and rolling-origin validation. Confirmed cases increased from 8 to 2,073, with 796 deaths (national CFR, 38.4%), while affected health zones increased from 3 to 45 across five provinces. Doubling time increased from 8.9 to 19.5 and 25.1 days, representing a 64.1% reduction in growth rate. Ituri accounted for 89.9% of cases, while North Kivu had a CFR of 58.7%. Six-month projections ranged from 2,624 cases under rapid containment to 3,942 under continued deceleration and 10,839 with persistent recent incidence. Although proportional growth slowed, transmission and geographic expansion remained active. The divergence between modelling approaches and systematic under-prediction in temporal validation indicate substantial forecast uncertainty; projections should therefore be interpreted as conditional planning scenarios rather than deterministic forecasts.