Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha⁻¹ per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the “yield shock”, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.

Meeting the ever-increasing global food, feed, and fiber demands while conserving the quantity and quality of limited agricultural water resources and maintaining the sustainability of irrigated agriculture requires optimizing irrigation management using advanced technologies such as soil moisture sensors. In this study, the performance of five different soil moisture sensors was evaluated for their accuracy in two irrigated cropping systems, one each in central and southwest Oklahoma, with variable levels of soil salinity and clay content. With factory calibrations, three of the sensors had sufficient accuracies at the site with lower levels of salinity and clay, while none of them performed satisfactorily at the site with higher levels of salinity and clay. The study also investigated the performance of different approaches (laboratory, sensor-based, and the Rosetta model) to determine soil moisture thresholds required for irrigation scheduling, i.e., field capacity (FC) and wilting point (WP). The estimated FC and WP by the Rosetta model were closest to the laboratory-measured data using undisturbed soil cores, regardless of the type and number of input parameters used in the Rosetta model. The sensor-based method of ranking the readings resulted in overestimation of FC and WP. Finally, soil moisture depletion, a critical parameter in effective irrigation scheduling, was calculated by combining sensor readings and FC estimates. Ranking-based FC resulted in overestimation of soil moisture depletion, even for accurate sensors at the site with lower levels of salinity and clay.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component in the water budget and used extensively in water resources management such as water planning and irrigation scheduling. In semi-arid regions, irrigation is used to supplement limited and erratic growing season rainfall to meet crop water demand. Although lysimetery is considered the most accurate method for crop water use measurements, high-precision weighing lysimeters are expensive to build and operate. Alternatively, other measurement systems such as eddy covariance (EC) are being used to estimate crop water use. However, due to numerous explicit and implicit assumptions in the EC method, an energy balance closure problem is widely acknowledged. In this study, three EC systems were installed in a field containing a large weighing lysimeter at heights of 2.5, 4.5, and 8.5 m. Sensible heat flux (H) and ET from each EC system were evaluated against the lysimeter. Energy balance closure ranged from 64% to 67% for the three sensor heights. Results showed that all three EC systems underestimated H and consequently overestimated ET; however, the underestimation of H was greater in magnitude than the overestimation of ET. Analysis showed accuracy of ET was greater than energy balance closure with error rates of 20%–30% for half-hourly values. Further analysis of error rates throughout the growing season showed that energy balance closure and ET accuracy were greatest early in the season and larger error was found after plants reached their maximum height. Therefore, large errors associated with increased biomass may indicate unaccounted-for energy stored in the plant canopy as one source of error. Summing the half-hourly data to a daily time-step drastically reduced error in ET to 10%–15%, indicating that EC has potential for use in agricultural water management.

Agriculture on the Texas High Plains (THP) uses approximately 89% of groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer. Consequently, groundwater levels are declining faster than the recharge rate. Therefore, efficient agricultural water use is essential for economic viability and sustainability of the THP. Accurate regional evapotranspiration (ET) maps would provide valuable information on actual crop water use. In this study, METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution using Internalized Calibration), a remote sensing based ET algorithm, was evaluated for mapping ET in the THP. Two Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper images acquired on 27 June (DOY 178) and 29 July (DOY 210) 2005 were used for this purpose. The performance of the ET model was evaluated by comparing the predicted daily ET with values derived from soil moisture budget at four commercial agricultural fields. Daily ET estimates resulted with a prediction error of 12.7±8.1% (mean bias error ± root mean square error) on DOY 178 and -4.7±9.4% on DOY 210 when compared with ET derived from measured soil moisture through the soil water balance. These results are good considering the prevailing advective conditions in the THP. METRIC have the potential to be used for mapping regional ET in the THP region. However, more evaluation is needed under different agroclimatological conditions.