To better assess the financial contagion through the VaR, several recent studies used copula models. In the same context, this paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical approach such as a normal distribution in modeling the tail risk, by using the conditional Extreme Value Theory (GARCH-EVT), in order to assess extreme risks with contagion effect. The GARCH-EVT approach is a two-stage hybrid method that combines a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) filter with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). To implement our approach, we use macroeconomic time series from Morocco, Spain, France, and the USA.

Sheep manure and beet waste (the uneatable leaf part of the beet) are promising feedstock for biogas production due to their abundance and organic richness. However, their high lignocellulosic content reduces anaerobic digestibility and controls methane yield. This study investigates the effect of various pretreatment strategies, namely physical, thermal, and combined physical–thermal methods, on the Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) of sheep manure and beet waste. Batch anaerobic digestion experiments were conducted under mesophilic conditions, with BMP values recorded for each treatment. The highest BMP for sheep manure, 125 Nml CH₄/g VS, was achieved using combined physical and thermal pretreatment. This approach enhanced methane production by 16%, 25%, and 60% compared to physical pretreatment (PP) alone, thermal pretreatment (TP) alone, and no pretreatment, respectively, while the one BMP for beet waste is 80 Nml CH₄/g VS and obtained with thermal pretreatment. To predict BMP outcomes, three machine learning approaches are applied, namely Linear Regression (LM), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), using digestion time (N days), total solids (Ts), volatile solids (Vs), pretreatment type, and biomass type. The variance analysis confirmed that the interaction between pretreatment and biomass type significantly improved model performance. While diagnostic checks revealed non-linear patterns limiting the linear model, ensemble methods achieved stronger results. The RFR model explained 79.5% of the variance with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of about 15.7, whereas the GBM model achieved the lowest RMSE of 5.05. GBM captures complex non-linear interactions. In addition, variable importance analyses identified digestion time, solid content, and pretreatment as the most influential factors for methane yield, with the combined chemical and physical pretreatment producing the highest biogas outputs. These findings underscore the potential of advanced machine learning models, particularly GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine), for optimizing anaerobic digestion strategies and maximizing biogas recovery from sheep manure and beet waste.

In this paper, we are interested in modeling the dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Errachidia province (Morocco), using epidemiologic data and the most notable climatic factors associated with leishmaniasis, namely humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and temperature. To achieve our objective, we compare the performance of three statistical models, namely the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), and the Generalized Linear model (GLM), using different metrics. The modeling framework will be compared with the Markov Switching (MSM) approach.

Sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.), a temperate fruit species highly sensitive to thermal and hydric stress, faces increasing cultivation challenges in semi-arid regions such as Fez-Meknes (Morocco) due to climate change. This study aims to identify ecologically suitable zones for sweet cherry cultivation by modeling its current potential distribution using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) approach. A total of 1151 georeferenced occurrence records were collected through field surveys and validated with satellite imagery. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were initially considered, and a subset with low multicollinearity (|r| < 0.7) was retained for analysis. Model performance, evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC), yielded a high mean value of 0.960 ± 0.014, indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Elevation, annual precipitation (BIO12), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) emerged as key drivers of the species’ distribution, as confirmed by both Jackknife and SPCPI analyses. Spatial prediction maps highlighted high-suitability zones in the provinces of Ifrane, El Hajeb, Azrou, and Sefrou, aligning with known agro-climatic production areas. In contrast, lower suitability was observed in more arid or heat-prone provinces such as Boulemane and Midelt. These findings provide a robust bioclimatic framework for agroecological planning, supporting adaptive varietal zoning and long-term planning for climate-resilient horticulture.

This paper presents YOLOv9, the advancement in the YOLO (You Only Look Once) series, innovating with the GELAN (Generalized Efficient Layer Aggregation Network) and PGI (Programmable Gradient Information) to enhance the precision of detection systems. We detail our empirical evaluation of YOLOv9 on robust and diverse datasets, highlighting its capability to maintain high detection accuracy while significantly reducing false positives, even with limited training data and in challenging scenarios. In this case, the approach has the potential to improve the accuracy of fire and smoke detection without being trained on pseudo-fire and pseudo-smoke scenes and without infrared lighting conditions. The findings highlight its potential as a reliable tool in this safety-critical application. Moreover, the proposed models demonstrate YOLOv9's superiority over its predecessors, with good performance, achieving high precision (P, mAP50, and mAP50-95) and a recall doing the inference in object early detection technologies.