This work presents a novel method for predicting vehicle trajectories in highway scenarios using efficient bird’s eye view representations and convolutional neural networks. Vehicle positions, motion histories, road configuration, and vehicle interactions are easily included in the prediction model using basic visual representations. The U-net model has been selected as the prediction kernel to generate future visual representations of the scene using an image-to-image regression approach. A method has been implemented to extract vehicle positions from the generated graphical representations to achieve subpixel resolution. The method has been trained and evaluated using the PREVENTION dataset, an on-board sensor dataset. Different network configurations and scene representations have been evaluated. This study found that U-net with 6 depth levels using a linear terminal layer and a Gaussian representation of the vehicles is the best performing configuration. The use of lane markings was found to produce no improvement in prediction performance. The average prediction error is 0.47 and 0.38 meters and the final prediction error is 0.76 and 0.53 meters for longitudinal and lateral coordinates, respectively, for a predicted trajectory length of 2.0 seconds. The prediction error is up to 50% lower compared to the baseline method.

This paper introduces a novel method of lane-change and lane-keeping detection and prediction of surrounding vehicles based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classification approach. Context, interaction, vehicle trajectories, and scene appearance are efficiently combined into a single RGB image that is fed as input for the classification model. Several state-of-the-art classification-CNN models of varying complexity are evaluated to find out the most suitable one in terms of anticipation and prediction. The model has been trained and evaluated using the PREVENTION dataset, a specific dataset oriented to vehicle maneuver and trajectory prediction. The proposed model can be trained and used to detect lane changes as soon as they are observed, and to predict them before the lane change maneuver is initiated. Concurrently, a study on human performance in predicting lane-change maneuvers using visual inputs has been conducted, so as to establish a solid benchmark for comparison. The empirical study reveals that humans are able to detect the 83.9% of lane changes on average 1.66 seconds in advance. The proposed automated maneuver detection model increases anticipation by 0.43 seconds and accuracy by 2.5% compared to human results, while the maneuver prediction model increases anticipation by 1.03 seconds with an accuracy decrease of only 0.5%.

The accurate prediction of road user behaviour is of paramount importance for the design and implementation of effective trajectory prediction systems. Advances in this domain have recently been centred on incorporating the social interactions between agents in a scene through the use of RNNs. Transformers have become a very useful alternative to solve this problem by making use of positional information in a straightforward fashion. The proposed model leverages positional information together with underlying information of the scenario through goals in the digital map, in addition to the velocity and heading of the agent, to predict vehicle trajectories in a prediction horizon of up to 5 s. This approach allows the model to generate multimodal trajectories, considering different possible actions for each agent, being tested on a variety of urban scenarios, including intersections, and roundabouts, achieving state-of-the-art performance in terms of generalization capability, providing an alternative to more complex models.

While driving on highways, every driver tries to be aware of the behavior of surrounding vehicles, including possible emergency braking, evasive maneuvers trying to avoid obstacles, unexpected lane changes, or other emergencies that could lead to an accident. In this paper, human's ability to predict lane changes in highway scenarios is analyzed through the use of video sequences extracted from the PREVENTION dataset, a database focused on the development of research on vehicle intention and trajectory prediction. Thus, users had to indicate the moment at which they considered that a lane change maneuver was taking place in a target vehicle, subsequently indicating its direction: left or right. The results retrieved have been carefully analyzed and compared to ground truth labels, evaluating statistical models to understand whether humans can actually predict. The study has revealed that most participants are unable to anticipate lane-change maneuvers, detecting them after they have started. These results might serve as a baseline for AI's prediction ability evaluation, grading if those systems can outperform human skills by analyzing hidden cues that seem unnoticed, improving the detection time, and even anticipating maneuvers in some cases.

Understanding the behavior of road users is of vital importance for the development of trajectory prediction systems. In this context, the latest advances have focused on recurrent structures, establishing the social interaction between the agents involved in the scene. More recently, simpler structures have also been introduced for predicting pedestrian trajectories, based on Transformer Networks, and using positional information. They allow the individual modelling of each agent's trajectory separately without any complex interaction terms. Our model exploits these simple structures by adding augmented data (position and heading), and adapting their use to the problem of vehicle trajectory prediction in urban scenarios in prediction horizons up to 5 seconds. In addition, a cross-performance analysis is performed between different types of scenarios, including highways, intersections and roundabouts, using recent datasets (inD, rounD, highD and INTERACTION). Our model achieves state-of-the-art results and proves to be flexible and adaptable to different types of urban contexts.