To tackle the overheating problem of the heating surface in deep peak shaving, it is urgent to develop working substance (steam) temperature regulation and heating surface safety control technologies that combine combustion and hydrodynamic instability evaluation. This work relies on a 1000 MW boiler involved in deep peak shaving, and adopts CFD numerical simulation technology to obtain reasonable holographic heat load data of the boiler. The heat load data and the working substance side data are coupled to develop a real-time performance calculation model that combines combustion and hydrodynamic steam temperature. Real-time monitoring of the local position of the boiler water wall and the convection heating surface can be achieved through the three steps: heat load screening, heat exchange process calculation, and result display. The results show that through the corresponding expression of on-site industrial parameters and CFD simulation data, the effective analysis, extraction, modeling and optimization of the operation data can be realized for real-time online monitoring and intelligent early warning of the entire working condition. The model error is less than 2 °C and the model can realize early warnings at 5 min, so as to ensure the safety and stability of boiler operation and save the operating cost of the power plant to a certain extent.