Groundwater is crucial for economic and agricultural development, particularly in arid areas where surface water resources are extremely scarce. The prediction of groundwater levels is essential for understanding groundwater dynamics and providing scientific guidance for the rational utilization of groundwater resources. A back propagation (BP) neural network based on the artificial bee colony (ABC) optimization algorithm was established in this study to accurately predict groundwater levels in the overexploited arid areas of Northwest China. Recharge, exploitation, rainfall, and evaporation were used as input factors, whereas groundwater level was used as the output factor. Results showed that the fitting accuracy, convergence rate, and stabilization of the ABC-BP model are better than those of the particle swarm optimization (PSO-BP), genetic algorithm (GA-BP), and BP models, thereby proving that the ABC-BP model can be a new method for predicting groundwater levels. The ABC-BP model with double hidden layers and a topology structure of 4-7-3-1, which overcame the overfitting problem, was developed to predict groundwater levels in Yaoba Oasis from 2019 to 2030. The prediction results of different mining regimes showed that the groundwater level in the study area will gradually decrease as exploitation quantity increases and then undergo a decline stage given the existing mining condition of 40 million m³/year. According to the simulation results under different scenarios, the most appropriate amount of groundwater exploitation should be maintained at 31 million m³/year to promote the sustainable development of groundwater resources in Yaoba Oasis.

Climate change and human activities have profound effects on the characteristics of groundwater in arid oases. Analyzing the change of groundwater level and quantifying the contributions of influencing factors are essential for mastering the groundwater dynamic variation and providing scientific guidance for the rational utilization and management of groundwater resources. In this study, the characteristics and causes of groundwater level in an arid oasis of Northwest China were explored using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and principal component analysis. Results showed that the groundwater level every year exhibited tremendous regular characteristics with the seasonal exploitation. Meanwhile, the inter-annual groundwater level dropped continuously from 1982 to 2018, with a cumulative decline depth that exceeded 12 m, thereby causing the cone of depression. In addition, the monthly groundwater level had an evident cyclical variation on the two time scales of 17–35 and 7–15 months, and the main periodicity of monthly level was 12 months. Analysis results of the climatic factors from 1954 to 2018 observed a significant warming trend in temperature, an indistinctive increase in rainfall, an inconspicuous decrease in evaporation, and an insignificant reduction in relative humidity. The human factors such as exploitation amount, irrigated area, and population quantity rose substantially since the development of the oasis in the 1970s. In accordance with the quantitative calculation, human activities were decisive factors on groundwater level reduction, accounting for 87.79%. However, climate change, including rainfall and evaporation, which contributed to 12.21%, still had the driving force to change the groundwater level in the study area. The groundwater level of Yaoba Oasis has been greatly diminished and the ecological environment has deteriorated further due to the combined effect of climate change and human activities.

Freeze-thaw cycles play a critical role in affecting ecosystem services in arid regions. Monitoring studies of soil temperature and moisture during a freeze-thaw process can generate data for research on the coupled movement of water, vapor, and heat during the freezing-thawing period which can, in turn, provide theoretical guidance for rational irrigation practices and ecological protection. In this study, the soil temperature and moisture changes in the deep vadose zone were observed by in-situ monitoring from November 2017 to March 2018 in the Mu Us Desert. The results showed that changes in soil temperatures and temperature gradients were largest in soil layers above the 100-cm depth, and variations decreased with soil depth. The relationship between soil temperature and unfrozen water content can be depicted well by both theoretical and empirical models. Due to gradients of the matric potential and temperature, soil water flowed from deeper soil layers towards the frozen soil, increasing the total water content at the freezing front. The vapor flux, which was affected mainly by temperature, showed diurnal variations in the shallow 20-cm soil layer, and its rate and variations decreased gradually with increasing soil depths. The freeze-thaw process can be divided into three stages: the initial freezing stage, the downward freezing stage, and the thawing stage. The upward vapor flux contributed to the formation of the frozen layer during the freezing process.

Under the background of drastic global climate change, the evolution law of groundwater resources in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau presents new characteristics, and the groundwater is gradually becoming more complicated, diversified and disordered. In this study, cross-correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and cross-wavelet transform were used to explore the response mechanism and time delay effect of groundwater, exploitation amount, rainfall and surface runoff in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the groundwater depth increased with the increase in the exploitation amount and decreased with the increase in the rainfall-to-exploitation ration and the surface runoff-to-exploitation ratio from 1980 to 2020. On the annual scale, groundwater, rainfall and surface runoff had a strong cohesiveness period of 12a. On the monthly scale, groundwater lagged behind rainfall and surface runoff for 3 months and 2 months, respectively. The above conclusions provide a scientific theoretical basis for deepening the characteristics of groundwater endowment, the evolution law of water cycle elements and the theory of the hydrological cycle in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.