Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO₂ from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

The need for new policy instruments supporting the on-going transition from end-of-pipe waste treatment to resource management has been recognized in European policy. Instruments need to be carefully assessed before implementation to promote the desired changes and avoid problem shifting. Mathematical models may assist policy makers in such assessments. This paper presents a set of soft-linked models for assessing the economic and environmental impacts of policy instruments for both the prevention and management of waste and discusses its strengths and limitations. Consisting of (1) a macro-economic model, (2) a systems engineering model for waste management and (3) a life cycle assessment model for waste management, the set is primarily suited to assessing market-based instruments and environmental regulations. Considerable resources were needed for developing and using the set, and there are clear limits as to what can be addressed. However, if only one of the models had been used, neither the range of instruments nor the scope of impacts would have been possible to cover. Furthermore, soft-linked models allow many disciplines to contribute within one harmonized framework. Such integrated assessments may become increasingly useful for continuing the implementation of policy for sustainable governance of society’s material resources.

This study employs a life cycle perspective to analyze the carbon footprints of various waste streams, evaluating 52 cases across 26 types of household waste in Sweden, with a focus on waste prevention and management. It demonstrates that while recycling can reduce carbon emissions, prevention could significantly enhance these benefits, with savings ranging from −36.5 to −0.01 kg-CO₂-eq per kg of waste. Notably, Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE), textiles, tires, residual household, and plastic waste are the top five fractions most amenable to prevention on a per mass basis. Further analysis, considering waste volumes, shows that targeted recycling of materials like WEEE, metals, and paper could account for over 80% of potential carbon savings. However, the majority of potential climate impact is attributed to the energy recovery of unsorted (mixed) waste, contributing to more than 90% of total impacts. Redirecting all mixed waste to recycling could triple carbon savings, but focusing on prevention could potentially increase benefits twenty-sevenfold, particularly for waste like WEEE, food, and textiles. This research provides a valuable tool for identifying key areas in waste management to optimize climate benefits and enhance public awareness. However, it advises using local data for precise planning due to inherent uncertainties.