Exploring land use change is crucial to planning land space scientifically in a region. Taking the ecological conservation area (ECA) in western Beijing as the study area, we employ ArcGIS 10.2, landscape pattern index and multiple mathematical statistics to explore the temporal and spatial variation of land use from 2000 to 2020. Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Markov models were used to simulate and predict the current land use in 2020. The models were evaluated for accuracy, and the more accurate PLUS model was selected and used to simulate and predict the potential land use in the study area in 2030 under two management scenarios. The main findings of this research are: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the construction land increased constantly, and the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased significantly. (2) For predicting the spatial distribution of land use in the study area, the PLUS model was more accurate than the FLUS model. (3) The land-use prediction of the study area in 2030 shows that the area of grassland, forest and water is approximately equal to their corresponding value in 2020, but the construction land increased constantly by occupying the surrounding cultivated land. According to this research, the continuous decrease of cultivated land in favor of increasing construction land will cause losses to the ecological service function of the ECA, which is not beneficial to the sustainable development of the region. Relevant departments should take corresponding measures to reduce this practice and promote sustainable development, particularly in the southern and western areas of the ECA where there is less construction land.

Vegetation changes and factors have a profound influence on the local ecology, the economy, and the long-term durability of human construction. This study focuses on the impacts of climate change and human activity on vegetation changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and aims to develop a dataset of human activity levels on the plateau. Sen and Mann-Kendall trend analysis was used to evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI and its trends, as well as the lagged response of plant growth to climatic circumstances. Using a geodetector model, the effects of meteorological and anthropogenic intensity data were examined. The study’s findings show that, although anthropogenic influences and ecosystem vulnerability caused a decline in the region’s vegetation, a stable climate and a healthy ecosystem supported the growth of vegetation. From 2000 to 2017, the area where vegetation grass improved significantly accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 34.22%. Different anthropogenic intensities are distributed spatially, and this interplay of anthropogenic intensities and climatic factors affects the distribution of vegetation greenness more than each element acting alone. The study of how human activity and climate change affect vegetation greenness can offer practical recommendations for maintaining the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau’s natural ecology. It is crucial to responsibly safeguard the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau’s environment in response to the nation’s ecological civilization.

As more machine learning and deep learning models are applied in studying the quantitative relationship between the climate and terrestrial vegetation growth, the uncertainty of these advanced models requires clarification. Partial dependence plots (PDPs) are one of the most widely used methods to estimate the marginal effect of independent variables on the predicted outcome of a machine learning model, and it is regarded as the main basis for conclusions in relevant research. As more controversies regarding the reliability of the results of the PDPs emerge, the uncertainty of the PDPs remains unclear. In this paper, we experiment with real, remote sensing data to systematically analyze the uncertainty of partial dependence relationships between four climate variables (temperature, rainfall, radiation, and windspeed) and vegetation growth, with one conventional linear model and six machine learning models. We tested the uncertainty of the PDP curves across different machine learning models from three aspects: variation, whole linear trends, and the trait of change points. Results show that the PDP of the dominant climate factor (mean air temperature) and vegetation growth parameter (indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) has the smallest relative variation and the whole linear trend of the PDP was comparatively stable across the different models. The mean relative variation of change points across the partial dependence curves of the non-dominant climate factors (i.e., radiation, windspeed, and rainfall) and vegetation growth ranged from 8.96% to 23.8%, respectively, which was much higher than those of the dominant climate factor and vegetation growth. Lastly, the model used for creating the PDP, rather than the relative importance of these climate factors, determines the fluctuation of the PDP output of these climate variables and vegetation growth. These findings have significant implications for using remote sensing data and machine learning models to investigate the quantitative relationships between the climate and terrestrial vegetation.

Satellite observation is one of the main methods used to monitor the global distribution and variation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Several CO₂ monitoring satellites have been successfully launched, including Japan’s Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), the USA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and China’s Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite Mission (TanSat). Satellite observation targeting the ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) station is the most effective technique for validating satellite CO₂ measurement precision. In this study, the coincident observations from TanSat and ground-based FTS were performed numerous times in Beijing under a clear sky. The column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO₂) obtained from TanSat was retrieved by the Department for Eco-Environmental Informatics (DEEI) of China’s State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System based on a full physical model. The comparison and validation of the TanSat target mode observations revealed that the average of the XCO₂ bias between TanSat retrievals and ground-based FTS measurements was 2.62 ppm, with a standard deviation (SD) of the mean difference of 1.41 ppm, which met the accuracy standard of 1% required by the mission tasks. With bias correction, the mean absolute error (MAE) improved to 1.11 ppm and the SD of the mean difference fell to 1.35 ppm. We compared simultaneous observations from GOSAT and OCO-2 Level 2 (L2) bias-corrected products within a ±1° latitude and longitude box centered at the ground-based FTS station in Beijing. The results indicated that measurements from GOSAT and OCO-2 were 1.8 ppm and 1.76 ppm higher than the FTS measurements on 20 June 2018, on which the daily observation bias of the TanSat XOC₂ results was 1.87 ppm. These validation efforts have proven that TanSat can measure XCO₂ effectively. In addition, the DEEI-retrieved XCO₂ results agreed well with measurements from GOSAT, OCO-2, and the Beijing ground-based FTS.

Afforestation is an important way to effectively reduce carbon emissions from human activities and increase carbon sinks in forest ecosystems. It also plays an important role in climate change mitigation. Currently, few studies have examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of future afforestation areas, which are crucial for assessing future carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. In order to obtain the dynamic distribution of potential afforestation land over time under future climate change scenarios in China, we utilized the random forest method in this study to calculate weights for the selected influencing factors on potential afforestation land, such as natural vegetation attributes and environmental factors. The “weight hierarchy approach” was used to calculate the afforestation quality index of different regions in different 5-year intervals from 2021 to 2060 and extract high-quality potential afforestation lands in each period. By dynamically analyzing the distribution and quality of potential afforestation land from 2021 to 2060, we can identify optimal afforestation sites for each period and formulate a progressive afforestation plan. This approach allows for a more accurate application of the FCS model to evaluate the dynamic changes in the carbon sequestration capacity of newly afforested land from 2021 to 2060. The results indicate that the average potential afforestation land area will reach 75 Mha from 2021 to 2060. In the northern region, afforestation areas are mainly distributed on both sides of the “Hu Line”, while in the southern region, they are primarily distributed in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and some coastal provinces. By 2060, the potential calculated cumulative carbon storage of newly afforested lands was 11.68 Pg C, with a peak carbon sequestration rate during 2056–2060 of 0.166 Pg C per year. Incorporating information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation succession, climate production potential, and vegetation resilience while quantifying the weights of each influencing factor can enhance the accuracy of predictions for potential afforestation lands. The conclusions of this study can provide a reference for the formulation of future afforestation plans and the assessment of their carbon sequestration capacity.

Carbon density change and land use change are important factors in the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem carbon stock. Accurately assessing regional carbon stock and analyzing its relationship with land use patterns and carbon density change are of great value to regional ecosystem protection and sustainable social and economic development. In order to effectively evaluate the carbon stock in North China, this study divided the target area into 5 sub-regions, and a variety of methods were used to calculate the carbon density in each sub-region over different time periods. The classic InVEST model was selected to evaluate carbon stock evolution under changes in land use and carbon density from 2000 to 2015. The results show that the carbon stock in North China in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 1.301 × 10¹⁰ t, 1.325 × 10¹⁰ t, 1.332 × 10¹⁰ t and 1.366 × 10¹⁰ t, respectively, with a cumulative increase of 6.506 × 10⁸ t. As two main factors, the land use type change and carbon density change showed different influences on the carbon stock of different regions and different ecosystems, but the former had a greater impact in North China during 2000–2015. Converting farmland to forest and grassland and converting bare land to grassland increased carbon stock, while converting farmland to building land reduced carbon stock. In addition, the carbon density of most land use types in each sub-region increased from 2000 to 2015, which further caused the increase in carbon stock. The carbon stock in North China had a significant spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west, and this distribution pattern is closely related to land use. This research can provide scientific reference for land use management decision-making and sustainable carbon stock function in North China.