This study investigates the potential of ensemble forecasting using full realistic high-resolution nested atmosphere–ocean models for the prediction of meteotsunamis in Ciutadella (Menorca, Spain). The sensitivity of model results to the parameterizations of the atmospheric model is assessed considering the ten most significant recent meteotsunami events for which observations are available. Different schemes adapted to high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used for the representation of cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer and longwave and shortwave radiations. Results indicate a large spread of the ensemble simulations in terms of the final magnitude of the meteotsunamis. While the modeling system is shown to be able to realistically trigger tsunamigenic atmospheric disturbances in more than 90% of the situations, the small-scale characteristics of these disturbances are significantly modified with the change of parameterizations, leading to significant differences in the magnitude of the simulated sea-level response. No preferred set of parameterizations can be identified that leads to either the largest or the most realistic magnitudes in the majority of situations. Instead, the performance of a given set of parameterizations is found to change with the meteotsunami event under consideration. Importantly, the observed magnitude of the extreme sea-level oscillations lies within the range of a nine-member ensemble in 70% of the cases. This ensemble approach would then allow to generate a realistic range of possibilities in the majority of events, thus improving the realism of meteotsunami predictions compared to single deterministic forecasts.

The aim of this study is to assess the capacity of the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite to resolve fine scale oceanic surface features in the western Mediterranean. Using as input the Sea Surface Height (SSH) fields from a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM), the SWOT Simulator for Ocean Science generates SWOT-like outputs along a swath and the nadir following the orbit ground tracks. Given the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of fine scale features in the region, we examine temporal and spatial resolution of the SWOT outputs by comparing them with the original model data which are interpolated onto the SWOT grid. To further assess the satellite’s performance, we derive the absolute geostrophic velocity and relative vorticity. We find that instrument noise and geophysical error mask the whole signal of the pseudo-SWOT derived dynamical variables. We therefore address the impact of removal of satellite noise from the pseudo-SWOT data using a Laplacian diffusion filter, and then focus on the spatial scales that are resolved within a swath after this filtering. To investigate sensitivity to different filtering parameters, we calculate spatial spectra and root mean square errors. Our numerical experiments show that noise patterns dominate the spectral content of the pseudo-SWOT fields at wavelengths below 60 km. Application of the Laplacian diffusion filter allows recovery of the spectral signature within a swath down to the 40–60 km wavelength range. Consequently, with the help of this filter, we are able to improve the observation of fine scale oceanic features in pseudo-SWOT data, and in the estimation of associated derived variables such as velocity and vorticity.

Significant lateral density gradients occur throughout the year in the Alboran Sea, giving rise to two main fronts: the Western Alboran Gyre Front (WAGF) and Eastern Alboran Gyre Front (EAGF), where large vertical velocities often develop. To improve the understanding of the processes that underlie the development of the vertical velocities in the fronts, the periods of development were analyzed in the perspective of the frontogenesis, instabilities, non‐linear Ekman, and filamentogenesis mechanisms, using multi‐platform in‐situ observations and a high‐resolution realistic simulation in spring 2018. The spatio‐temporal characteristics of the WAGF indicate a wider, deeper, and longer‐lasting front than the EAGF. Additionally, the WAGF shows stronger and deeper upwelling and downwelling regions. The WAGF vertical velocities (up to |55| m/day) are amplified by an across‐front ageostrophic secondary circulation generated by: (a) frontal intensification explained by frontogenesis, which shows a sharpening of buoyancy gradients associated with the Atlantic Jet, (b) nonlinear Ekman effects, that are enhanced by the persistent western wind blowing along the frontal direction, and (c) submesoscale instabilities (symmetric and ageostrophic baroclinic instabilities). The EAGF vertical velocities (up to |38| m/day) are amplified by two asymmetrical ageostrophic cells developed across the front with a narrow upwelling region in the middle. The cell's circulation is explained by frontal intensification produced by filamentogenesis through a cold filament advection to the Mediterranean Sea interior, that is characterized by pointy isopycnals at the center of the filament. This mechanism is observed in both the model and glider observations.