The food supply–demand balance is a perpetual concern for many countries, especially developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. Using the land resource carrying capacity model, here, food supply and demand for the cereals and calories in Uzbekistan during 1995–2020 were revealed. Despite increased demand for cereals and calories, unstable crop production has led to volatile growth patterns. The carrying capacity of cropland resources under Uzbekistan’s consumption standard shifted from overload to surplus and then to balance. Moreover, the carrying capacity of cropland resources under the healthy diet standard moved from balance to surplus in the past 25-years. Additionally, the calorific equivalent land resource carrying capacity under Uzbekistan’s consumption standard fluctuated, with the carrying state shifting from balance to surplus, and the healthy diet standard still in overload. These findings can help guide sustainable production and consumption strategies in Uzbekistan and other countries by analyzing the consumption structure and changes in supply and demand relationships.

The yield of highland barley is not only related to the food security of Tibet but also to the social stability and development in the frontier region. This study revealed the spatiotemporal distribution of highland barley yield potential using the DSSAT model and GIS technology in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries (YZTT) of Tibet from 1981 to 2020, and analyzed its response relationship to climate factors. The results show that the highland barley yield potential ranged from 4284.75 to 7341.15 kg/ha in the YZTT region during 1981 to 2020, with an average of 6719.87 kg/ha. Under the climate change, the highland barley yield potential was on a downward trend of −14.49 kg/ha·a over the past 40 years. In terms of the response of highland barley yield potential to climate change, the highland barley yield potential decreased by 2.90 kg/ha for every 1 MJ/m² decrease in solar radiation. For every 1 °C increase in the maximum temperature, the highland barley yield potential increased by 219.68 kg/ha. Meanwhile, for every 1 °C increase in the minimum temperature, the highland barley yield potential increased by 91.40 kg/ha. These findings aim to provide reference for decision-making in agricultural policy and spatial allocation of agricultural resources.