Reservoir stimulation has driven efficient deep coalbed methane (CBM) development in China, but post-fracturing drainage technology remains a critical limiting factor. This study proposes an optimization method for key drainage parameters by coupling fracturing stimulation effects. A geological model is established through rock mechanics experiments and data, combined with fracture network simulations to develop a drainage model that reflects the characteristics of deep CBM production in the Ordos Basin. Based on this model, the effects of seven geological factors and two engineering parameters on drainage performance were investigated, and machine learning was further employed to analyze the influence degree of each factor. Results indicate that the impact of each factor on drainage performance is ranked as follows: except for initial water saturation and the pressure drawdown rate before stable liquid production, all other factors exhibit a positive correlation with productivity. The primary controlling factors are porosity, fracture network volume, and permeability, with a cumulative influence of 73.9%. Following these are the initial water saturation, Langmuir volume, and the pressure drawdown rate before stable liquid production, which collectively account for 20.5% of the influence. The remaining factors contribute to 5.6% of the overall influence; It is recommended to use a 17 mm choke before achieving stable liquid production in the study area, and switch to a 10 mm choke after the liquid production stabilizes. This study contributes to the efficient development of CBM.

As a transitional energy source, natural gas plays a crucial role in the energy transition. In the efficient development of shale gas, the drainage and production process, as an important link between hydraulic fracturing and production, determines the recovery rate of individual wells. To clarify the main controlling factors of shale gas drainage and production, provide strategies for classification, and improve the recovery rates of individual wells, a numerical simulation method was proposed to analyze the factors affecting drainage and production, and the VIKOR method was used for quantitative evaluation of the drainage and production effects. The research results showed that: (1) The study identified nine main controlling factors affecting drainage and production performance, including gas saturation, permeability, stress difference, burial depth, formation pressure, cumulative fracture volume, final fracture loss rate, average final diversion ability, and wellbore liquid loading. (2) A workflow for quantitatively evaluating the drainage and production effectiveness of shallow shale gas wells and selecting wells with potential for optimized drainage and production was proposed. The correlation between the evaluation results and EUR fitting had an R² value of 0.71, indicating a good level of credibility. (3) The evaluation results for the target gas field indicated that out of the 16 representative wells, 12 wells have optimization potential, with 5 wells showing significant optimization potential. Studying the rules of shale gas drainage and production and evaluating the drainage and production effects can help us to propose refined drainage and production strategies, which are essential for improving the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).