This study explores the impact of international relations on China’s energy security and supply/demand dynamics, specifically focusing on new energy sources and technological advancements. Given China’s status as the world’s largest energy consumer, achieving a balance between energy supply, demand, and sustainable development is crucial. This study quantifies the influence of international relations on the energy market, particularly the uncertainties arising from geopolitical events and international tensions that affect energy supply and prices. The research findings indicate that, in a long-term cointegrated relationship, a 1% change in the geo-political risk (GPR) index leads to a 0.229% change in China’s crude oil imports. Additionally, the impact of China’s GDP growth, carbon emissions, and sustainable energy consumption is −2.176, 0.723, and 0.167, respectively. This study also discusses the reasons behind the differential impact of crude oil prices on the United States and China. Recognizing the interplay between China’s energy security and international relations is vital for effective policy formulation. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to ensure a sustainable and secure energy future.

The environmental impact of trade liberalization hinges on a central tension between its ‘scale effect’ and its ‘technique and composition effects’. This study uses the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership’s (RCEP) influence on China-ASEAN green agricultural trade as a quasi-natural experiment to test the net outcome of this conflict. Leveraging panel data from 2003–2023 and a combined Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Instrumental Variables (IV) methodology, we find that while RCEP-driven agricultural expansion (the scale effect) did significantly increase NO₂ emissions by 21.80 units (p = 0.011), the total effect of RCEP was counter-intuitively and significantly negative. The agreement produced a context-specific environmental co-benefit, achieving a net reduction of 99.45 $\mathsf{\mu }\mathrm{m}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{l}/{\mathrm{m}}^2$ of NO₂ (p = 0.008). The agreement produced a specific reduction in combustion-related air pollution, achieving a net reduction of 99.45 $\mathsf{\mu }\mathrm{m}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{l}/{\mathrm{m}}^2$ of NO₂ (p = 0.008). We caution that this outcome is contextual: it is driven not only by a still-weak green technology effect (a 0.55 unit reduction, p = 0.095) but more critically by a structural shift in trade towards lower-emission fruit and vegetable products (coefficient = −0.13, p = 0.077), suggesting that environmental gains are currently contingent on product composition rather than broad decarbonization. This reveals that environmental pressures from scale are, for now, being offset by structural optimization, highlighting the urgent need for refined emission monitoring and targeted green policies within RCEP to solidify these environmental gains.