The intensifying effects of climate change have led to increased flooding, even in desert regions, resulting in significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. This study analyzes the causes and consequences of flooding in the Zhem River basin using data from ground stations, including Kazhydromet, and satellite platforms such as USGS FEWS NET and Copernicus. Spatial analyses conducted in ArcGIS utilized classified raster data to map the dynamics of flooding, snow cover, vegetation, and soil conditions. This enabled a geoecological analysis of flood damage on the vital components of the local landscape. Results show that flooding in the Zhem River basin was driven by heavy winter precipitation, rapid snowmelt, and a sharp rise in spring temperatures. The flood damaged Kulsary city and also harmed the region’s soil, vegetation, and wildlife. In July 2024, the flooded sail area tripled compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the area of barren land or temporary water bodies (pools) formed three months after the water receded also tripled, increasing from 84.9 km² to 275.7 km². This study highlights the critical need for continued research on the long-term environmental effects of flooding and the development of adaptive management strategies for sustainable regional development.

The study addresses the problems and the history of formation and functioning of one of the largest intracontinental estuaries in Kazakhstan—the Ili River waterway. Being a natural regulator of the ecological status of the region, the estuary of Ili River also influences the water regime of Lake Balkhash. This work studied the current state of hydrographic and hydrological networks in a selected area and the distribution of water flow entering the estuary through the various ducts. Using a water balance method, this study calculated the loss of water in the delta, estimated runoff to the peak of delta and the inflow of river water into Lake Balkhash for two periods: the natural-conditioned and disturbed. As a result of the work performed, it was possible to trace the dynamics of hydraulic parameters for a multiyear period.

The study presents a scenario analysis of the long-term dynamics of the water level of Lake Balkhash, one of the largest closed lakes in Central Asia, taking into account climate change according to CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and socio-economic factors of water use. Based on historical data (1947–2021) and a water balance model, the contribution of surface runoff, precipitation and evaporation to the formation of the lake’s hydrological regime was assessed. It was established that the main source of water resources for the lake is the flow of the Ile River, which feeds the western part of the reservoir. The eastern part is characterized by extremely limited water inflow, while evaporation remains the main element of water consumption, having increased significantly in recent decades due to rising air temperatures. Increasing intra-seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water levels have been recorded: The amplitude of short-term fluctuations reached 0.7–0.8 m, which exceeds previously characteristic values. The results of water balance modeling up to 2050 show a trend towards a 30% reduction in surface inflow and an increase in evaporation by 25% compared to the 1981–2010 climate norm, which highlights the high sensitivity of the lake’s hydrological regime to climatic and anthropogenic influences. The results obtained justify the need for the comprehensive and adaptive management of water resources in the Balkhash Lake basin, taking into account the transboundary nature of water use and changing climatic conditions.