Risk for transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to close contacts of infected persons has not been well estimated. To evaluate the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to close contacts in different settings. Prospective cohort study. Close contacts of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Guangzhou, China. 3410 close contacts of 391 index cases were traced between 13 January and 6 March 2020. Data on the setting of the exposure, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction testing, and clinical characteristics of index and secondary cases were collected. Measurement: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were confirmed by guidelines issued by China. Secondary attack rates in different settings were calculated. Among 3410 close contacts, 127 (3.7% [95% CI, 3.1% to 4.4%]) were secondarily infected. Of these 127 persons, 8 (6.3% [CI, 2.1% to 10.5%]) were asymptomatic. Of the 119 symptomatic cases, 20 (16.8%) were defined as mild, 87 (73.1%) as moderate, and 12 (10.1%) as severe or critical. Compared with the household setting (10.3%), the secondary attack rate was lower for exposures in healthcare settings (1.0%; odds ratio [OR], 0.09 [CI, 0.04 to 0.20]) and on public transportation (0.1%; OR, 0.01 [CI, 0.00 to 0.08]). The secondary attack rate increased with the severity of index cases, from 0.3% (CI, 0.0 to 1.0%) for asymptomatic to 3.3% (CI, 1.8% to 4.8%) for mild, 5.6% (CI, 4.4% to 6.8%) for moderate, and 6.2% (CI, 3.2% to 9.1%) for severe or critical cases. Index cases with expectoration were associated with higher risk for secondary infection (13.6% vs. 3.0% for index cases without expectoration; OR, 4.81 [CI, 3.35 to 6.93]). There was potential recall bias regarding symptom onset among patients with COVID-19, and the symptoms and severity of index cases were not assessed at the time of exposure to contacts. Household contact was the main setting for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among close contacts increased with the severity of index cases. Guangdong Province Higher Vocational Colleges and Schools Pearl River Scholar Funded Scheme.

Background: Rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan prompted heightened surveillance in Guangzhou and elsewhere in China. Modes of contact and risk of transmission among close contacts have not been well estimated. Methods: We included 4950 closes contacts from Guangzhou, and extracted data including modes of contact, laboratory testing, clinical characteristics of confirmed cases and source cases. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the risk factors associated with infection of close contacts. Results: Among 4950 closes contacts, the median age was 38.0 years, and males accounted for 50.2% (2484). During quarantine period, 129 cases (2.6%) were diagnosed, with 8 asymptomatic (6.2%), 49 mild (38.0%), and 5 (3.9%) severe to critical cases. The sensitivity of throat swab was 71.32% and 92.19% at first to second PCR test. Among different modes of contact, household contacts were the most dangerous in catching with infection of COVID-19, with an incidence of 10.2%. As the increase of age for close contacts and severity of source cases, the incidence of COVID-19 presented an increasing trend from 1.8% (0-17 years) to 4.2% (60 or over years), and from 0.33% for asymptomatic, 3.3% for mild, to 6.2% for severe and critical source cases, respectively. Manifestation of expectoration in source cases was also highly associated with an increased risk of infection in their close contacts (13.6%). Secondary cases were in general clinically milder and were less likely to have common symptoms than those of source cases. Conclusions: In conclusion, the proportion of asymptomatic and mild infections account for almost half of the confirmed cases among close contacts. The household contacts were the main transmission mode, and clinically more severe cases were more likely to pass the infection to their close contacts. Generally, the secondary cases were clinically milder than those of source cases.

Background: Influenza is an infectious respiratory disease that can cause serious public health hazard. Due to its huge threat to the society, precise real-time forecasting of influenza outbreaks is of great value to our public. Results: In this paper, we propose a new deep neural network structure that forecasts a real-time influenza-like illness rate (ILI%) in Guangzhou, China. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks is applied to precisely forecast accurateness due to the long-term attribute and diversity of influenza epidemic data. We devise a multi-channel LSTM neural network that can draw multiple information from different types of inputs. We also add attention mechanism to improve forecasting accuracy. By using this structure, we are able to deal with relationships between multiple inputs more appropriately. Our model fully consider the information in the data set, targetedly solving practical problems of the Guangzhou influenza epidemic forecasting. Conclusion: We assess the performance of our model by comparing it with different neural network structures and other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results indicate that our model has strong competitiveness and can provide effective real-time influenza epidemic forecasting.

Background: As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. Methods: Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. Results: A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.

Transfusion-Transmitted Zika virus (TT-ZIKV) has become an emerging threat to world blood banks due to the fast spread of ZIKV epidemics and high rate of asymptomatic infections. For the risk assessment of ZIKV infection in blood products, relevant studies in blood donations or blood donors tested for ZIKV were collected and analyzed systematically. The overall prevalence of ZIKV infection were estimated through meta-analysis and potential risk factors were detected. The results will provide important clues for the protocol design of blood screening tests. Relevant articles about the rate of ZIKV detected in blood samples were identified from PubMed, Scopus and Web Of Science using key terms search strategy until October 7, 2017. Eligible articles were screened following inclusion and exclusion criteria. Meta-analysis and subgroup analyses were performed by software R3.4.1. Overall postdonation and posttransfusion follow-ups were analyzed. Ten literatures (528,947 blood samples) were included for meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of ZIKV (RNA and antibody) in blood donations was 1.02% (95%CI 0.36–1.99). The pooled prevalence of ZIKV RNA in blood donations was 0.85% (95%CI 0.21–1.88) less than the pooled prevalence of anti-ZIKV antibodies 1.61% (95%CI 0.03–5.21), however the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.52). The prevalence varied significantly in different geographical regions (p < 0.001). Blood donations were more than two times likely to be infected by ZIKV in Zika epidemic period (1.37, 95%CI 0.91–1.91) than in non-epidemic period (0.61, 95%CI 0–2.55). The prevalence of anti-ZIKV antibodies (1.61, 95%CI 0.03–5.21) was almost twice as much as ZIKV nucleic acid detected in blood donations (0.85, 95%CI 0.21–1.88). However, statistically significant differences were not observed. A total of 122 ZIKV positive blood donors were followed, of which 48 (39%) reported symptoms postdonation, but none of the 13 followed recipients reported any clinical symptoms related to Zika infection posttransfusion. The pooled prevalence of Zika infection in blood donations was 1.02%. The prevalence varied greatly and reached to high-risk level in most of the situations. The results suggest that nucleic acid tests (NAT) for blood screening and pathogen reduction/inactivation technology (PRT) should be implemented in Zika-endemic areas and appropriate strategies should be designed according to different conditions. More studies are needed in the future to provide more evidence.

This study aims to explore the relationship between the doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines received and SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in the real-world setting, so as to preliminarily evaluate the protective effect induced by COVID-19 vaccination. We conducted a test-negative case-control study and recruited the test-positive cases and test-negative controls in the outbreak caused by Omicron BA.2 in April 2022 in Guangzhou, China. All the participants were 3 years and older. The vaccination status between the case group and the control group was compared in the vaccinated and all participants, respectively, to estimate the immune protection of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines. After adjusting for sex and age, compared with a mere single dose, full vaccination of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines (OR = 0.191, 95% CI: 0.050 to 0.727) and booster vaccination (OR = 0.091, 95% CI: 0.011 to 0.727) had a more superior protective effect. Compared with one dose, the second dose was more effective in males (OR = 0.090), as well as two doses (OR = 0.089) and three doses (OR = 0.090) among individuals aged 18–59. Whereas, when compared with the unvaccinated, one dose (OR = 7.715, 95% CI: 1.904 to 31.254) and three doses (OR = 2.055, 95% CI: 1.162 to 3.635) could contribute to the increased risk of Omicron infection after adjusting for sex and age. Meanwhile, by contrast with unvaccinated individuals, the result of increased risk was also manifested in the first dose in males (OR = 12.400) and one dose (OR = 21.500), two doses (OR = 1.890), and a booster dose (OR = 1.945) in people aged 18–59. In conclusion, the protective effect of full and booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines exceeded the incomplete vaccination, of which three doses were more effective. Nevertheless, vaccination may increase the risk of Omicron infection compared with unvaccinated people. This may result from the transmission traits of BA.2, the particularity and stronger protection awareness of the unvaccinated population, as well as the ADE effect induced by the decrease of antibody titers after a long time of vaccination. It is crucial to explore this issue in depth for the formulation of future COVID-19 vaccination strategies.