Cultivated land plays a crucial role as the basis of grain production, and it is essential to effectively manage the unregulated expansion of non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land in order to safeguard food security. The study of NGP has garnered significant attention from scholars, but the prediction of NGP trends is relatively uncommon. Therefore, we focused on Jiangsu Province, a significant grain production region in China, as the study area. We extracted data on cultivated land for non-grain production (NGPCL) in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019, and calculated the ratio of non-grain production (NGPR) for each county unit in the province. On this basis, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and spatial autocorrelation analysis tools were utilized to uncover the spatio-temporal evolution of NGP in Jiangsu Province. Finally, the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was utilized to predict the trend of NGP in Jiangsu Province in 2038 under the three development scenarios of natural development (NDS), cultivated land protection (CPS), and food security (FSS). After analyzing the results, we came to the following conclusions:(1) During the period of 2000–2019, the NGPCL area and NGPR in Jiangsu Province exhibited a general decreasing trend. (2) The level of NGP displayed a spatial distribution pattern of being “higher in the south and central and lower in the north”. (3) The results of multi-scenario simulation show that under the NDS, the area of NGPCL and cultivated land for grain production (GPCL) decreases significantly; under the CPS, the decrease in NGPCL and GPCL is smaller than that of the NDS. Under the FSS, NGPCL decreases, while GPCL increases. These results can provide reference for the implementation of land use planning, the delineation of the cultivated land protection bottom line, and the implementation of thee cultivated land use control system in the study area.

Jilin Province is an important commercial grain production base in northeast China, and it has seen significant transition in cultivated land use in recent years. This study constructed a measurement system for the recessive transition of cultivated land use in Jilin Province based on the perspective of “three-function synergy” (productive, living, and ecological functions). It discussed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the recessive transition of cultivated land use from 1990 to 2020, identified the turning point of the cultivated land transition trend, and built a model of recessive transition of cultivated land in Jilin Province. After analyzing the results, we came to the following conclusions: (1) The turning point of the “three-function synergy” of the recessive morphology of cultivated land in Jilin Province occurred earlier than the mutation point of the recessive transition of cultivated land, and there was a certain temporality in the recessive transition of cultivated land compared with the functional change of cultivated land; (2) the degree of recessive transition of cultivated land in Jilin Province showed a spatial distribution characteristic of being higher in the west and lower in the east; (3) the recessive transition of cultivated land use in Jilin Province could be divided into transition stages characterized by “low stage slow rise period”, “middle stage significant increase period”, and “high stage steady growth period”; (4) Jilin Province should adopt differentiated and diversified management of cultivated land to achieve a comprehensive management model that emphasizes quantity, quality, and ecology.

Exploring the evolution of the production patterns of major crops and their driving factors can provide new ideas to ensure the security of supply of important agricultural products. This study selected four major crop types in Jilin Province—grain, oil crop, vegetable, and fruit—as research subjects. Using the center of gravity migration model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and comparative advantage index, the spatial and temporal evolution of these crops’ production patterns from 2000 to 2020 was examined. A geographically weighted regression model was employed to analyze driving factors. The results showed that the planting area of grain was the most extensive; the percentage of production of grain, oil crop, and fruit increased to different degrees; the unit area yield of the four crops increased. The centers of gravity of all four crops’ productions were located in the central-northwestern region of Jilin Province. The global Moran’s I was positive for all four crops’ productions. The comparative advantage characteristics of the four crops were closely related to the natural geographical environment. Grain, vegetable, and fruit production were significantly and positively correlated with fertilizer application, and the most significant factor affecting oil crop production was land input intensity.