Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42–54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2–64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5–51.9) otherwise. The TNDs’ adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31–48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7–50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0–40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Background/Objectives: Influenza represents a significant burden on global public health, and vaccination is the most effective strategy to reduce it. The large investment in vaccination programs and the need for adjustments in vaccine serotypes are important reasons for evaluating the influenza vaccine’s efficacy every year. Establishing a relationship between immunogenicity data and efficacy is also crucial for predicting the efficacy of a vaccine during its development. Antibody response measurement is one of the most common methods for evaluating immunogenicity, particularly in vaccines and biologics. The aim of this systematic review was to define a model that relates the immunogenicity of a given vaccine to its efficacy, based on hemagglutination inhibition titer levels. Methods: To achieve this goal, information was gathered from articles linking immunogenicity with the efficacy of the influenza vaccine in the Medline and Scopus databases. Different mathematical models were developed and applied to assess the relationship between HAI titers and the effectiveness of the flu vaccine. This analysis was conducted for the various existing vaccines, for the different influenza virus strains, and for their efficacy in paediatric populations. Results: The r² obtained ranged from 0.2579 to 0.966, which points to the importance of this immunological factor in the efficacy of the influenza vaccine. Conclusions: The efficacy values for titer level 40 confirm the validity of the data provided by Hobson.

INPLASY202570064 Immunogenicity as a Predictor of Influenza Vaccine Efficacy Keywords: Influenza, Influenza vaccine, efficacy, immunogenicity. Read and download full-text here – PDF 202570064…