Previous studies have shown that variation in PlayerLoad (PL) could be used to detect fatigue in soccer players. Machine learning techniques (ML) were used to develop a new locomotor efficiency index (LEI) based on the prediction of PL. Sixty-four elite soccer players were monitored during an entire season. GPS systems were employed to collect external load data, which in turn were used to predict PL during training/matches. Random Forest Regression (RF) produced the best performance (mean absolute percentage error = 0.10 ± 0.01) and was included in further analyses. The difference between the PL value predicted by the ML model and the real one was calculated, individualized for each player using a z-score transformation (LEI), and interpreted as a sign of fatigue (negative LEI) or neuromuscular readiness (positive LEI). A linear mixed model was used to analyze how LEI changed according to the period of the season, day of the week, and weekly load. Regarding seasonal variation, the lowest and highest LEI values were recorded at the beginning of the season and in the middle of the season, respectively. On a weekly basis, our results showed lower values on match day − 2, while high weekly training loads were associated with a reduction in LEI.

Elite football players face increasing physical and tactical demands due to rising match schedules emphasizing the need for effective load monitoring strategies to optimize performance and reduce injury risk. This study integrates fitness and fatigue indices derived from a machine learning approach to develop a performance score based on Banister’s fitness–fatigue model. Data were collected over two seasons (2022/23 and 2023/24) from 23 elite players of an Italian professional team. Fitness was assessed via heart rate collected during small-sided games, while fatigue was evaluated through PlayerLoad recorded during training sessions; both were normalized using z-scores. Match outcomes, including physical (e.g., total distance, high-sprint distance) and tactical metrics (e.g., field tilt, territorial domination), were analyzed in relation to performance conditions (optimal, intermediate, poor). Results revealed that players in the optimal performance condition exhibited significantly higher second-half physical outputs, including total distance (z-TD_2ndHalf: p < 0.05, ES = 0.29) and distance covered at >14.4 km/h (z-D14.4_2ndHalf: p < 0.01, ES = 0.52), alongside improved match tactical parameters as territorial domination (%TDO_2ndHalf: p < 0.01, r = 0.431). This study underscores the utility of invisible monitoring in football, providing actionable insights for weekly training periodization. This research establishes a foundation for integrating data-driven strategies to enhance physical and tactical performance in professional football.