Spatial evaluation of urban environment quality (UEQ) is a key prerequisite in urban planning and development. The main goal of this study is to present a scenario-based spatial multi-criteria decision-making system for evaluating UEQ. Therefore, stakeholder involvement was conducted and eight environmental criteria and six spatial-functional criteria were identified for five districts of Tehran. The weight of the effective criteria was calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was used to prepare UEQ maps in different scenarios, including very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic. Finally, the spatial distribution of the district population in different classes of UEQ was evaluated. Among the spatial-functional and environmental criteria, the sub-criteria of population density and air pollution, respectively, had the greatest impact on UEQ. In very pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios, approximately 76.7, 51.8, 36.4, 23.7, and 9.8 km² of the studied area had unsuitable UEQ conditions, respectively. In the very pessimistic scenario, about 37,000 and 1,500,000 people lived in areas with suitable and unsuitable UEQ conditions, respectively. In the very optimistic scenario, the population increased to over 917,000 in areas with suitable UEQ and decreased to 336,000 in those with unsuitable UEQ conditions in terms of both environmental and spatial-functional criteria. The research results showed that a high percentage of the population in the study area live under unsuitable UEQ conditions, which indicates the need for attention to improving the current UEQ conditions. The proposed approach is timely to gain a better understanding of the adverse impact of climate change on human well-being in marginal societies and how climate-resilient urban planning can play a significant role.

Shopping centers are among the major economic and commercial places in cities in terms of social function, urban sustainability, environment, etc. Therefore, it is crucial to determine suitable locations for building new shopping centers. In this regard, urban vacant lands can be considered as high-potential locations to transform the urban landscape and enhance socio-economic development. The main purpose of this study is to assess the potential of urban vacant lands based on a spatial multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) system for building shopping centers in 22 districts of Tehran. In this study, first, 16 effective spatial criteria for locating the new shopping centers were identified using expert opinions and a literature review. The best-worst method (BWM) and the Min/Max method were used to calculate the weight and standardized values of each criterion. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was used to prepare a potential map of urban vacant lands for the construction of a shopping center under different decision-making scenarios, including very optimistic, optimistic, intermediate, pessimistic, and very pessimistic. Finally, the spatial distribution of potential locations in the 22 districts of Tehran was investigated. The results showed that among the different criteria, the distance from the highway networks and distance from public transportation stations had the most weight, whereas the distance from fault and distance from stream networks had the least weight. The number of vacant lands with a very high potential for building a shopping center in Tehran based on very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic and very optimistic scenarios was obtained at 29, 95, 105, 122, and 224, respectively. An increase in the degree of optimism in the attitude of decision-makers or investors increased the number of available options in the very high potential category. Under all scenarios, all vacant lands in 10 of Tehran’s 22 districts with very high potential for building shopping centers. The results of the proposed model in this study can be useful and practical for a wide range of planners, decision-makers, and investors with different mental attitudes and risk tolerance. Close attention to these results can contribute to achieving sustainable urban development.