To identify the indicators of adaptive capacity that determine vulnerability of households, an intensive investigation was conducted in farming communities at two locations in the Asian highlands. Livelihood vulnerability was assessed, classified to four categories and regressed against current adaptive capacity using logistic regression. Household head’s education, irrigated land, non-agricultural income, and technologies used were associated with adaptive capacity. The strengthening of human, natural and financial capital is identified as the best means of managing risk in farming communities in this mountainous region.

A seasonal calendar, based on traditional knowledge of ecological indicators, seasonal variations and associated activities, can provide a baseline for understanding the practices of indigenous along with climatic variation. This paper investigates the ethno-ecological knowledge of indigenous people in Taxkorgan regarding the use of ecological cues to conduct seasonal activities that harmonize with climatic variations. Meteorological data from the nearest station was used to understand climatic variations and develop indices. The results revealed that indigenous elders still adopt traditional methods to decide the time of various annual activities observing and using seasonal cues, such as the height and color of grass, the arriving of migratory birds and phenological observations. Moreover, same or diverse indicators were used at settlements located in different elevations. The analysis revealed that the region was recently getting warmer and wetter compared to previous decades, and local perceptions were matched with climatic recordings. Local inhabitants already practiced earlier plantation of crops (e.g., wheat) in recent years. Climatic indices calculated revealed and validated recent weather condition can support earlier plantation of crops. Hence, the strong forecasting system using meteorological evidence to support existing local knowledge on ecological indicators and adjust seasonal calendars can improve indigenous people’s abilities to cope with climate risks. Furthermore, this can support in developing adaptation schemes that respond to community needs. The approaches and findings can be used to facilitate the management of these natural resource based on the adaptive framework and to create data that can be tested in subsequent studies.

Since COVID-19’s emergence in 2020, all segments of life, including farming communities, have been impacted. The pandemic revealed both vulnerabilities and opportunities for resilience, particularly for those dwelling in the harsh mountainous terrains, which have already strained food ecosystems. Taking influence from an exhaustive literature review, this study proposes and tests a model for the transformations observed in the agriculture markets, particularly input, labor, and product markets, and elucidates the influence of these changes on cropping and consumption patterns. With data from two major mountainous terrains in north Pakistan spanning three years before and during the pandemic, a quantitative inquiry was carried out on the agriculture markets and farming patterns. A total of 5273 members of the farming communities were targeted for data collection. A two-step process was used for data analysis, including an evaluation of the outer or measurement model followed by the inner or structural model through partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). With a hitherto ignored focus on the already vulnerable mountainous communities, the findings confirm the direct influence of agriculture markets on changes in the farmers’ cropping patterns as well as the moderating influence of the pandemic on these relationships. Consistent with previous literature, the results also affirm the influence of changes in cropping patterns and changes in consumption patterns. However, it was found that the agriculture input markets strongly predict the changes in cropping patterns, whereas the labor and product markets have comparatively lower prediction value. By investigating the various facets of food supply chains, this study offers valuable insights on market dynamics in times of a crisis, such as a pandemic.