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Climate change and variability is affecting maize (Zea mays L.) production in eastern Ethiopia but how farmers perceive the challenge and respond to it is not well documented. A study was conducted to analyze smallholder maize farmers’ perception of climate change/variability and identify their adaptation approaches and barriers for adaptation in the eastern highlands of Ethiopia. Meteorological data were assessed to provide evidence of the perceived change. A survey was conducted in six major maize-producing kebeles with a total of 364 respondents. A multi-stage sampling method was employed for selecting the sample units for the study. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multinomial logit model. The results indicated that 78% of the sampled smallholder maize farmers perceived increasing temperatures while 83% perceived decreasing amounts of rainfall. About 75% of the farmers indicated that they became aware of climate change and variability from their own experience and perceived deforestation as the main cause. The farmers perceived that drought, diseases and pests, dwindling soil fertility, and declining crop yields were the major impacts of climate change that affected maize production. The farmers’ major adaptation practices include adjusting planting dates, using improved maize varieties, intercropping, recommended mineral fertilizers, supplementary irrigation, and soil and water conservation measures. Econometric analysis revealed that low educational level, shortage of land, large family sizes, age, lack of access to irrigation water, lack of access to credit, and lack of access to extension services were the most important barriers to climate change adaptation in the area. It is concluded that farmers cultivating maize in the study area have perceived climate change and use certain adaptation strategies to counter its negative impacts on maize production. This implies that policies should be geared towards strengthening farmers’ efforts to adapt to climate change and alleviate the existing barriers in promoting adaptation strategies for enhancing the productivity of maize.
Helen Teshome; Kindie Tesfaye; Nigussie Dechassa; Tamado Tana; Matthew Huber. Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Practices for Maize Production in Eastern Ethiopia. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9622 .
AMA StyleHelen Teshome, Kindie Tesfaye, Nigussie Dechassa, Tamado Tana, Matthew Huber. Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Practices for Maize Production in Eastern Ethiopia. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (17):9622.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHelen Teshome; Kindie Tesfaye; Nigussie Dechassa; Tamado Tana; Matthew Huber. 2021. "Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Practices for Maize Production in Eastern Ethiopia." Sustainability 13, no. 17: 9622.
A terminal dry spell is one of the main limiting factors for rice productions. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the effect of supplemental irrigation for managing the impact of terminal dry spells on the productivity of different rice varieties grown under rainfed conditions in the Fogera Plain. The experiment was designed in a split-plot design with water regimes as main plot factors and rice varieties as a subplot factor with three replications. The water regimes were: dry planted rainfed rice (farmers practice) (FP), transplanted but not irrigated (IWOI), transplanted and irrigated to saturation (SAT), transplanted and ponding to 1 cm water (PD1), and transplanted and ponding to 3 cm water (PD2). The rice varieties were: X-Jigna (V1), Edget (V2), Hiber (V3), Fogera-1 (V4), and Nerica-4 (V5). The combined effect of PD2 with V1 had the highest grain yield (t/ha) (4.35 t/ha) while FP with V3 had the lowest grain yield (2.12 t/ha). The highest (205%) relative grain yield was obtained when V1 was grown under PD2 followed by V4 under PD2 (199%) and V5 under PD2 (192%) compared to FP with V3. Irrigation water productivity (WPIR) varied between water regimes x varieties from as low as 1.84kg grain mm−1ha−1 for V3 in FP to as high as the yield of 3.07kg grain mm−1ha−1 for V1 in PD2. The highest and lowest net benefits were recorded for V1 grown under PD2 (65, 550 ETB) and for V3 grown under TWOI (33, 500 ETB ha−1), respectively. Hence, the combined application of 3 cm ponding depth (PD2) with X-Jigna (V1) and 1cm ponding depth with Fogera-1 (V4) rice varieties could be suggested as effective terminal stress management to increase the yield and profitability of rainfed rice in the Fogera Plain and similar agro-ecologies.
Tesfaye Molla; Kindie Tesfaye; Firew Mekbib; Tamado Tana; Tilahun Taddesse. Supplementary irrigation for managing the impact of terminal dry spells on the productivity of rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Fogera Plain, Ethiopia. Heliyon 2021, 7, e06703 .
AMA StyleTesfaye Molla, Kindie Tesfaye, Firew Mekbib, Tamado Tana, Tilahun Taddesse. Supplementary irrigation for managing the impact of terminal dry spells on the productivity of rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Fogera Plain, Ethiopia. Heliyon. 2021; 7 (4):e06703.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTesfaye Molla; Kindie Tesfaye; Firew Mekbib; Tamado Tana; Tilahun Taddesse. 2021. "Supplementary irrigation for managing the impact of terminal dry spells on the productivity of rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Fogera Plain, Ethiopia." Heliyon 7, no. 4: e06703.
Maize and wheat are major cereals that contribute two-thirds of the food energy intake globally. The two crops consume about 35% of the nitrogen (N) fertilizer used in agriculture and thereby contribute to fertilizer-induced nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Thus, estimation of spatially disaggregated N2O emissions from maize and wheat fields on a global scale could be useful for identifying emission and mitigation hotspots. It could also be needed for prioritizing mitigation options consistent with location-specific production and environmental goals. N2O emission from four models (CCAFS-MOT, IPCC Tier-I, IPCC Tier-II and Tropical N2O) using a standard gridded dataset from global maize and wheat fields were compared and their performance evaluated using measured N2O emission data points (777 globally distributed datapoints). The models were used to quantify spatially disaggregated N2O emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields globally and the values were compared. Although the models differed in their performance of capturing the level of measured N2O emissions, they produced similar spatial patterns of annual N2O emissions from maize and wheat fields. Irrespective of the models, predicted N2O emissions per hectare were higher in some countries in East and South Asia, North America, and Western Europe, driven mainly by higher N application rates. The study indicated a substantial N2O abatement potential if application of excess N in the maize and wheat systems is reduced without compromising the yield of the crops through technological and crop management innovations. N2O mitigation potential is higher in those countries and regions where N application rates and current N2O emissions are already high. The estimated mitigation potentials are useful for hotspot countries to target fertilizer and crop management as one of the mitigation options in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Kindie Tesfaye; Robel Takele; Tek B. Sapkota; Arun Khatri-Chhetri; Dawit Solomon; Clare Stirling; Fabrizio Albanito. Model comparison and quantification of nitrous oxide emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields at a global scale. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 782, 146696 .
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Robel Takele, Tek B. Sapkota, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Dawit Solomon, Clare Stirling, Fabrizio Albanito. Model comparison and quantification of nitrous oxide emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields at a global scale. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 782 ():146696.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Robel Takele; Tek B. Sapkota; Arun Khatri-Chhetri; Dawit Solomon; Clare Stirling; Fabrizio Albanito. 2021. "Model comparison and quantification of nitrous oxide emission and mitigation potential from maize and wheat fields at a global scale." Science of The Total Environment 782, no. : 146696.
Kindie Tesfaye. Climate change in the hottest wheat regions. Nature Food 2021, 2, 8 -9.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye. Climate change in the hottest wheat regions. Nature Food. 2021; 2 (1):8-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye. 2021. "Climate change in the hottest wheat regions." Nature Food 2, no. 1: 8-9.
Process-based crop models are popular tools to quantify the impact of changes due to climate or crop management. Accurate simulation of crop production for different agro-ecological conditions using an individual crop model remains challenging due to different sources of uncertainty. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are limited in tropical environments, including Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the performance of the outputs of three individual crop models and their ensemble mean. We calibrated three different crop models, namely, APSIM-maize, AquaCrop and DSSAT CERES-maize and evaluated them separately and in a multimodel ensemble approach using four maize varieties (BH546, BH661, Jibat and MH140) grown under rainfed conditions. Model input data were collected from field experiments conducted at three sites (Ambo, Bako and Melkassa) during the 2017/2018 crop growing season. The experiments were laid out in a randomised complete block design using a plot size of 10 m × 10 m. The crop models were calibrated using measured data from the Bako and evaluated with independent datasets from the Ambo and Melkassa. The calibration parameters used in each of the three crop models studied enabled accurate simulation of flowering, maturity, canopy cover (AquaCrop) and grain yield against measured data. Evaluation of the models indicated that APSIM-maize and DSSAT CERES-maize accurately simulated days to flowering and maturity with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 1.73–4.09 and 1.66–5.36 days, respectively. However, the DSSAT CERES-maize model over-estimated the maturity period of late-maturing varieties at Ambo. The AquaCrop model accurately simulated maize canopy cover for all varieties studied with a RMSE of less than 10.8% and a high index of agreement (d) of 0.95. The simulated grain yield agreed fairly well with the measured data, with normalised RMSE ranging from 13–19%, 1–4% and 1–17% for APSIM, AquaCrop and DSSAT maize models, respectively. However, the APSIM model underestimated yield for all maize varieties at Ambo (RMSE of 1.14 t ha−1 and d-value of 0.50). The best performance was obtained when an ensemble of all models was considered, which reduced the RMSE values for grain yield to 0.35 t ha−1 at Ambo and 0.41 t ha−1 at Melkassa. Furthermore, the ensemble mean reduced the normalised RMSE by 8% while increasing the d-value to above 0.90 for both evaluation sites. On the other hand, the ensemble results were quite similar for grain yield simulated using the AquaCrop model. It is concluded that model ensembles reduced model uncertainty and improved simulation output accuracy compared to the outputs of individual models in tropical environments.
Hirut Getachew Feleke; Mj Savage; Kindie Tesfaye. Calibration and validation of APSIM–Maize, DSSAT CERES–Maize and AquaCrop models for Ethiopian tropical environments. South African Journal of Plant and Soil 2021, 38, 36 -51.
AMA StyleHirut Getachew Feleke, Mj Savage, Kindie Tesfaye. Calibration and validation of APSIM–Maize, DSSAT CERES–Maize and AquaCrop models for Ethiopian tropical environments. South African Journal of Plant and Soil. 2021; 38 (1):36-51.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHirut Getachew Feleke; Mj Savage; Kindie Tesfaye. 2021. "Calibration and validation of APSIM–Maize, DSSAT CERES–Maize and AquaCrop models for Ethiopian tropical environments." South African Journal of Plant and Soil 38, no. 1: 36-51.
New farming systems and management options are needed in South Asia as the intensive rice–wheat production system is set to become increasingly unsustainable under climate change. In the current study, six cropping systems options/treatments varying in tillage, crop establishment method, residue management, crop sequence and fertilizer and water management were evaluated using a cropping systems model under current (1980–2009) and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios in the state of Bihar, India. The treatments were current farmers' practice (CP), best fertilizer and water management practices, zero tillage (ZT) with no crop residue retention, ZT with partial crop residue retention (ZTPR), future conservation agriculture-based rice–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-1) and future conservation agriculture-based maize–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-2). The results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce rice–wheat system productivity under CP by 4% across Bihar. All the crop management options studied increased yield, water productivity and net returns over that of the CP under the current and future climate scenarios. However, the ZTPR treatment gave significantly higher relative yield, lower annual yield variability and a higher benefit-cost-ratio than the other treatments across cropping system components and climate periods. Although all the new cropping system treatments had a positive yield implication under the current climate (compared to CP), they did not contribute to adaptation under the future climate except FCS-2 in wheat. It is concluded that adaptation to future climate must integrate both cropping system innovations, and genetic improvements in stress tolerance.
K. Tesfaye; A. Khatri-Chhetri; P. K. Aggarwal; F. Mequanint; P. B. Shirsath; C. M. Stirling; M. L. Jat; D. B. Rahut; O. Erenstein. Assessing climate adaptation options for cereal-based systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, South Asia. The Journal of Agricultural Science 2019, 157, 189 -210.
AMA StyleK. Tesfaye, A. Khatri-Chhetri, P. K. Aggarwal, F. Mequanint, P. B. Shirsath, C. M. Stirling, M. L. Jat, D. B. Rahut, O. Erenstein. Assessing climate adaptation options for cereal-based systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, South Asia. The Journal of Agricultural Science. 2019; 157 (3):189-210.
Chicago/Turabian StyleK. Tesfaye; A. Khatri-Chhetri; P. K. Aggarwal; F. Mequanint; P. B. Shirsath; C. M. Stirling; M. L. Jat; D. B. Rahut; O. Erenstein. 2019. "Assessing climate adaptation options for cereal-based systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, South Asia." The Journal of Agricultural Science 157, no. 3: 189-210.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the patterns and trends of drought incidence in north east highlands of Ethiopia using monthly rainfall record for the period 1984-2014. Design/methodology/approach Standard precipitation index and Mann – Kendal test were used to analyze drought incident and trends of drought occurrences, respectively. The spatial extent of droughts in the study area has been interpolated by inverse distance weighted method using the spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS. Findings Most of the studied stations experienced drought episodes in 1984, 1987/1988, 1992/1993, 1999, 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 which were among the worst drought years in the history of Ethiopia. The year 1984 was the most drastic and distinct-wide extreme drought episode in all studied stations. The Mann–Kendal test shows an increasing tendencies of drought at three-month (spring) timescale at all stations though significant (p < 0.05) only at Mekaneselam and decreasing tendencies at three-month (summer) and 12-month timescales at all stations. The frequency of total drought was the highest in central and north parts of the region in all study seasons. Originality/value This detail drought characterization can be used as bench mark to take comprehensive drought management measures such as early warning system, preparation and contingency planning, climate change adaptation programs.
Yimer Mohammed; Fantaw Yimer; Menfese Tadesse; Kindie Tesfaye. Meteorological drought assessment in north east highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2018, 10, 142 -160.
AMA StyleYimer Mohammed, Fantaw Yimer, Menfese Tadesse, Kindie Tesfaye. Meteorological drought assessment in north east highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2018; 10 (1):142-160.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYimer Mohammed; Fantaw Yimer; Menfese Tadesse; Kindie Tesfaye. 2018. "Meteorological drought assessment in north east highlands of Ethiopia." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 10, no. 1: 142-160.
Kindie Tesfaye; Gideon Kruseman; Jill Cairns; Mainassara Zaman-Allah; Dagne Wegary; P.H. Zaidi; Kenneth J. Boote; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Olaf Erenstein. Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments. Climate Risk Management 2018, 19, 106 -119.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Gideon Kruseman, Jill Cairns, Mainassara Zaman-Allah, Dagne Wegary, P.H. Zaidi, Kenneth J. Boote, Dil Bahadur Rahut, Olaf Erenstein. Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments. Climate Risk Management. 2018; 19 ():106-119.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Gideon Kruseman; Jill Cairns; Mainassara Zaman-Allah; Dagne Wegary; P.H. Zaidi; Kenneth J. Boote; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Olaf Erenstein. 2018. "Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments." Climate Risk Management 19, no. : 106-119.
Purpose The recently released fifth IPCC report indicates a high agreement among global actors on the need to integrate climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, there remains little local level evidence on how DRR and CCA could be linked, the sorts of adjustments that are required for the two concepts to be integrated and the challenges ahead. This paper aims to provide an empirical insight on the possible links and departures between DRR and CCA. Design/methodology/approach The study used a qualitative case study approach to excavate lessons from an existing DRR intervention for CCA using a local-level adaptive capacity assessment framework as a normative criteria. Data was collected both from primary and secondary sources. The primary data collection involved the use of participatory rural appraisal techniques with village communities in Chifra District, Afar Regional State, Ethiopia. Findings The findings showed that the DRR interventions studied addressed parts of the elements of adaptive capacity at the local level. The findings also showed the limitation of the DRR intervention, which could be attributed to both the nature of the DRR interventions in general and implementation problems of the case study intervention in particular. The limitations show cases where full integration of DRR with CCA could be challenging. Originality/value The paper argues why the two approaches may not be integrated fully and also shows the need to focus on the design of DRR interventions in achieving both short-term (reducing disaster risks) and long-term objectives (enhancing adaptive capacity).
Million Gebreyes; Kindie Tesfaye; Beneberu Feleke. Climate change adaptation-disaster risk reduction nexus: case study from Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2017, 9, 829 -845.
AMA StyleMillion Gebreyes, Kindie Tesfaye, Beneberu Feleke. Climate change adaptation-disaster risk reduction nexus: case study from Ethiopia. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2017; 9 (6):829-845.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMillion Gebreyes; Kindie Tesfaye; Beneberu Feleke. 2017. "Climate change adaptation-disaster risk reduction nexus: case study from Ethiopia." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 9, no. 6: 829-845.
Climate change and associated uncertainties have serious direct and indirect consequences for crop production and food security in agriculture-based developing regions. Long-term climate data analysis can identify climate risks and anticipate new ones for planning appropriate adaptation and mitigation options. The aim of this study was to identify near-term (2030) and mid-term (2050) climate risks and/or opportunities in the state of Bihar, one of India’s most populous and poorest states, using weather data for 30 years (1980–2009) as a baseline. Rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, and evapotranspiration will all increase in the near- and mid-term periods relative to the baseline period, with the magnitude of the change varying with time, season and location within the state. Bihar’s major climate risks for crop production will be heat stress due to increasing minimum temperatures in the rabi (winter) season and high minimum and maximum temperatures in the spring season; and intense rainfall and longer dry spells in the kharif (monsoon) season. The increase in annual and seasonal rainfall amounts, and extended crop growing period in the kharif season generally provide opportunities; but increasing temperature across the state will have considerable negative consequences on (staple) crops by affecting crop phenology, physiology and plant-water relations. The study helps develop site-specific adaptation and mitigation options that minimize the negative effects of climate change while maximizing the opportunities.
Kindie Tesfaye; Pramod K. Aggarwal; Fasil Mequanint; Paresh B. Shirsath; Clare M. Stirling; Arun Khatri-Chhetri; Dil Bahadur Rahut. Climate Variability and Change in Bihar, India: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Crop Production. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1998 .
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Fasil Mequanint, Paresh B. Shirsath, Clare M. Stirling, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Dil Bahadur Rahut. Climate Variability and Change in Bihar, India: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Crop Production. Sustainability. 2017; 9 (11):1998.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Pramod K. Aggarwal; Fasil Mequanint; Paresh B. Shirsath; Clare M. Stirling; Arun Khatri-Chhetri; Dil Bahadur Rahut. 2017. "Climate Variability and Change in Bihar, India: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Crop Production." Sustainability 9, no. 11: 1998.
Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-based simulation package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.
Thomas Berger; Christian Troost; Tesfamicheal Wossen; Evgeny Latynskiy; Kindie Tesfaye; Sika Gbegbelegbe. Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 2017, 48, 693 -706.
AMA StyleThomas Berger, Christian Troost, Tesfamicheal Wossen, Evgeny Latynskiy, Kindie Tesfaye, Sika Gbegbelegbe. Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics. 2017; 48 (6):693-706.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThomas Berger; Christian Troost; Tesfamicheal Wossen; Evgeny Latynskiy; Kindie Tesfaye; Sika Gbegbelegbe. 2017. "Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia." Agricultural Economics 48, no. 6: 693-706.
Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predominantly rain-fed, and erratic weather patterns and extreme weather events, exacerbated by the changing climate, adds to the challenges faced by smallholder farmers in producing enough food to feed the ever growing population of the region. While the farming communities are responding to these challenges, there is an intensive need for scaling-up adoption of appropriate interventions that can help increase crop yields and resilience to climate change. A review and analysis of potential climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAs) in SSA indicate that some CSAs are increasingly adopted by farmers and show potential for scaling up. Some particularly promising CSAs include drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties and sustainable intensification through crop associations which are increasingly adopted across SSA regions. Other CSA’s which also offer promise include water harvesting and small-scale irrigation, climate information, and natural resource conservation. The presence of successful smallholder CSA practices in SSA means that opportunities exist for cross-country learning and scaling up by supporting farmers’ efforts through exchange of knowledge, incentives and policies.
Kindie Tesfaye; Menale Kassie; Jill E. Cairns; Misiko Michael; Clare Stirling; Tsedeke Abate; B. M. Prasanna; Mulugetta Mekuria; Habtamu Hailu; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Olaf Erenstein; Bruno Gerard. Potential for Scaling up Climate Smart Agricultural Practices: Examples from Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate Change Management 2017, 185 -203.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Menale Kassie, Jill E. Cairns, Misiko Michael, Clare Stirling, Tsedeke Abate, B. M. Prasanna, Mulugetta Mekuria, Habtamu Hailu, Dil Bahadur Rahut, Olaf Erenstein, Bruno Gerard. Potential for Scaling up Climate Smart Agricultural Practices: Examples from Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate Change Management. 2017; ():185-203.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Menale Kassie; Jill E. Cairns; Misiko Michael; Clare Stirling; Tsedeke Abate; B. M. Prasanna; Mulugetta Mekuria; Habtamu Hailu; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Olaf Erenstein; Bruno Gerard. 2017. "Potential for Scaling up Climate Smart Agricultural Practices: Examples from Sub-Saharan Africa." Climate Change Management , no. : 185-203.
Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
Martin K. van Ittersum; Lenny G. J. van Bussel; Joost Wolf; Patricio Grassini; Justin van Wart; Nicolas Guilpart; Lieven Claessens; Hugo de Groot; Keith Wiebe; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Haishun Yang; Hendrik Boogaard; Pepijn A. J. van Oort; Marloes P. van Loon; Kazuki Saito; Ochieng Adimo; Samuel Adjei-Nsiah; Alhassane Agali; Abdullahi Bala; Regis Chikowo; Kayuki Kaizzi; Mamoutou Kouressy; Joachim H. J. R. Makoi; Korodjouma Ouattara; Kindie Tesfaye; Kenneth G. Cassman. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2016, 113, 14964 -14969.
AMA StyleMartin K. van Ittersum, Lenny G. J. van Bussel, Joost Wolf, Patricio Grassini, Justin van Wart, Nicolas Guilpart, Lieven Claessens, Hugo de Groot, Keith Wiebe, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Haishun Yang, Hendrik Boogaard, Pepijn A. J. van Oort, Marloes P. van Loon, Kazuki Saito, Ochieng Adimo, Samuel Adjei-Nsiah, Alhassane Agali, Abdullahi Bala, Regis Chikowo, Kayuki Kaizzi, Mamoutou Kouressy, Joachim H. J. R. Makoi, Korodjouma Ouattara, Kindie Tesfaye, Kenneth G. Cassman. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2016; 113 (52):14964-14969.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartin K. van Ittersum; Lenny G. J. van Bussel; Joost Wolf; Patricio Grassini; Justin van Wart; Nicolas Guilpart; Lieven Claessens; Hugo de Groot; Keith Wiebe; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Haishun Yang; Hendrik Boogaard; Pepijn A. J. van Oort; Marloes P. van Loon; Kazuki Saito; Ochieng Adimo; Samuel Adjei-Nsiah; Alhassane Agali; Abdullahi Bala; Regis Chikowo; Kayuki Kaizzi; Mamoutou Kouressy; Joachim H. J. R. Makoi; Korodjouma Ouattara; Kindie Tesfaye; Kenneth G. Cassman. 2016. "Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 52: 14964-14969.
Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.
Kindie Tesfaye; P. H. Zaidi; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Christian Böber; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Fite Getaneh; K. Seetharam; Olaf Erenstein; Clare Stirling. Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2016, 130, 959 -970.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, P. H. Zaidi, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Christian Böber, Dil Bahadur Rahut, Fite Getaneh, K. Seetharam, Olaf Erenstein, Clare Stirling. Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2016; 130 (3-4):959-970.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; P. H. Zaidi; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Christian Böber; Dil Bahadur Rahut; Fite Getaneh; K. Seetharam; Olaf Erenstein; Clare Stirling. 2016. "Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 130, no. 3-4: 959-970.
Crop management innovations are often not discrete fixed stand-alone options—and their adoption may imply various combinations and adaptations. This potentially confounds their impact assessment. This article assesses the resource saving and productivity enhancing impacts of a crop management package revolving around minimum tillage in maize-based farming systems in northwest Ethiopia. An endogenous switching regression model was applied to plot- and household-level survey data collected from 290 rural households operating 590 maize plots during the 2012 production year. Controlling for variations in plot and household characteristics, the average effect of minimum tillage package (minimum tillage package) on maize productivity is 0.44 t/ha. Compared to conventional practice (CP), adoption of the MTP decreased the average male and female labor use in maize production by 14.4 and 8.2 person-days per ha, respectively. Similarly, MTP adoption decreased draft power use for land preparation by 13.2 pair of oxen-days per ha. Compared to CP, in general, there is a considerable short-run maize productivity gain and reduction in labor and draft power use under MTP.
Moti Jaleta; Menale Kassie; Kindie Tesfaye; Tilaye Teklewold; Pradyot Ranjan Jena; Paswel Marenya; Olaf Erenstein. Resource saving and productivity enhancing impacts of crop management innovation packages in Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 2016, 47, 513 -522.
AMA StyleMoti Jaleta, Menale Kassie, Kindie Tesfaye, Tilaye Teklewold, Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Paswel Marenya, Olaf Erenstein. Resource saving and productivity enhancing impacts of crop management innovation packages in Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics. 2016; 47 (5):513-522.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMoti Jaleta; Menale Kassie; Kindie Tesfaye; Tilaye Teklewold; Pradyot Ranjan Jena; Paswel Marenya; Olaf Erenstein. 2016. "Resource saving and productivity enhancing impacts of crop management innovation packages in Ethiopia." Agricultural Economics 47, no. 5: 513-522.
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach – Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings – Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value – The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.
Kindie Tesfaye; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Jill Cairns; Bekele Shiferaw; Boddupalli M Prasanna; Kai Sonder; Kenneth Boote; Dan Makumbi; Richard Robertson. Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2015, 7, 247 -271.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Jill Cairns, Bekele Shiferaw, Boddupalli M Prasanna, Kai Sonder, Kenneth Boote, Dan Makumbi, Richard Robertson. Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2015; 7 (3):247-271.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Jill Cairns; Bekele Shiferaw; Boddupalli M Prasanna; Kai Sonder; Kenneth Boote; Dan Makumbi; Richard Robertson. 2015. "Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 7, no. 3: 247-271.
Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder households, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize productivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ha during the same period. Ethiopia’s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of improved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia’s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricultural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agriculture.
Tsedeke Abate; Bekele Shiferaw; Abebe Menkir; Dagne Wegary; Yilma Kebede; Kindie Tesfaye; Menale Kassie; Gezahegn Bogale; Berhanu Tadesse; Tolera Keno. Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia. Food Security 2015, 7, 965 -981.
AMA StyleTsedeke Abate, Bekele Shiferaw, Abebe Menkir, Dagne Wegary, Yilma Kebede, Kindie Tesfaye, Menale Kassie, Gezahegn Bogale, Berhanu Tadesse, Tolera Keno. Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia. Food Security. 2015; 7 (5):965-981.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTsedeke Abate; Bekele Shiferaw; Abebe Menkir; Dagne Wegary; Yilma Kebede; Kindie Tesfaye; Menale Kassie; Gezahegn Bogale; Berhanu Tadesse; Tolera Keno. 2015. "Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia." Food Security 7, no. 5: 965-981.
Feyera M. Liben; Charles S. Wortmann; Kindie Tesfaye. Dry Soil Planting of Maize for Variable Onset of Rainfall in Ethiopia. Agronomy Journal 2015, 107, 1618 -1625.
AMA StyleFeyera M. Liben, Charles S. Wortmann, Kindie Tesfaye. Dry Soil Planting of Maize for Variable Onset of Rainfall in Ethiopia. Agronomy Journal. 2015; 107 (4):1618-1625.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFeyera M. Liben; Charles S. Wortmann; Kindie Tesfaye. 2015. "Dry Soil Planting of Maize for Variable Onset of Rainfall in Ethiopia." Agronomy Journal 107, no. 4: 1618-1625.
The following sections are included:
Sonali P. McDermid; Alexander C. Ruane; Cynthia Rosenzweig; Nicholas I. Hudson; Monica D. Morales; Prabodha Agalawatte; Shakeel Ahmad; L. R. Ahuja; Istiqlal Amien; Saseendran S. Anapalli; Jakarat Anothai; Senthold Asseng; Jody Biggs; Federico Bert; Patrick Bertuzzi; Virender S. Bhatia; Marco Bindi; Ian Broad; Davide Cammarano; Ramiro Carretero; Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha; Uran Chung; Stephanie Debats; Paola Deligios; Giacomo De Sanctis; Thanda Dhliwayo; Benjamin Dumont; Lyndon Estes; Frank Ewert; Roberto Ferrise; Thomas Gaiser; Guillermo García; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Vellingiri Geethalakshmi; Edward Gerardeaux; Richard Goldberg; Brian Grant; Edgardo Guevara; Jonathan Hickman; Holger Hoffmann; Huanping Huang; Jamshad Hussain; Flavio Barbosa Justino; Asha S. Karunaratne; Ann-Kristin Koehler; Patrice Kouakou; Soora Naresh Kumar; Arunachalam Lakshmanan; Mark Lieffering; Xiaomao Lin; Qunying Luo; Graciela Magrin; Marco Mancini; Fabio Ricardo Marin; Anna Dalla Marta; Yuji Masutomi; Theodoros Mavromatis; Greg McLean; Santiago Meira; Monoranjan Mohanty; Marco Moriondo; Wajid Nasim; Lamyaa Negm; Francesca Orlando; Simone Orlandini; Isik Ozturk; Helena Maria Soares Pinto; Guillermo Podesta; Zhiming Qi; Johanna Ramarohetra; Muhammad Habib Ur Rahman; Helene Raynal; Gabriel Rodriguez; Reimund Rötter; Vaishali Sharda; Lu Shuo; Ward Smith; Val Snow; Afshin Soltani; K. Srinivas; Benjamin Sultan; Dillip Kumar Swain; Fulu Tao; Kindie Tesfaye; Maria I. Travasso; Giacomo Trombi; Alex Topaj; Eline Vanuytrecht; Federico E. Viscarra; Syed Aftab Wajid; Enli Wang; Hong Wang; Jing Wang; Erandika Wijekoon; Lee Byun-Woo; Yang Xiaoguang; Ban Ho Young; Jin I. Yun; Zhigan Zhao; Lareef Zubair. The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols. Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems 2015, 191 -220.
AMA StyleSonali P. McDermid, Alexander C. Ruane, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Nicholas I. Hudson, Monica D. Morales, Prabodha Agalawatte, Shakeel Ahmad, L. R. Ahuja, Istiqlal Amien, Saseendran S. Anapalli, Jakarat Anothai, Senthold Asseng, Jody Biggs, Federico Bert, Patrick Bertuzzi, Virender S. Bhatia, Marco Bindi, Ian Broad, Davide Cammarano, Ramiro Carretero, Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha, Uran Chung, Stephanie Debats, Paola Deligios, Giacomo De Sanctis, Thanda Dhliwayo, Benjamin Dumont, Lyndon Estes, Frank Ewert, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Guillermo García, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Vellingiri Geethalakshmi, Edward Gerardeaux, Richard Goldberg, Brian Grant, Edgardo Guevara, Jonathan Hickman, Holger Hoffmann, Huanping Huang, Jamshad Hussain, Flavio Barbosa Justino, Asha S. Karunaratne, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Patrice Kouakou, Soora Naresh Kumar, Arunachalam Lakshmanan, Mark Lieffering, Xiaomao Lin, Qunying Luo, Graciela Magrin, Marco Mancini, Fabio Ricardo Marin, Anna Dalla Marta, Yuji Masutomi, Theodoros Mavromatis, Greg McLean, Santiago Meira, Monoranjan Mohanty, Marco Moriondo, Wajid Nasim, Lamyaa Negm, Francesca Orlando, Simone Orlandini, Isik Ozturk, Helena Maria Soares Pinto, Guillermo Podesta, Zhiming Qi, Johanna Ramarohetra, Muhammad Habib Ur Rahman, Helene Raynal, Gabriel Rodriguez, Reimund Rötter, Vaishali Sharda, Lu Shuo, Ward Smith, Val Snow, Afshin Soltani, K. Srinivas, Benjamin Sultan, Dillip Kumar Swain, Fulu Tao, Kindie Tesfaye, Maria I. Travasso, Giacomo Trombi, Alex Topaj, Eline Vanuytrecht, Federico E. Viscarra, Syed Aftab Wajid, Enli Wang, Hong Wang, Jing Wang, Erandika Wijekoon, Lee Byun-Woo, Yang Xiaoguang, Ban Ho Young, Jin I. Yun, Zhigan Zhao, Lareef Zubair. The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols. Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems. 2015; ():191-220.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonali P. McDermid; Alexander C. Ruane; Cynthia Rosenzweig; Nicholas I. Hudson; Monica D. Morales; Prabodha Agalawatte; Shakeel Ahmad; L. R. Ahuja; Istiqlal Amien; Saseendran S. Anapalli; Jakarat Anothai; Senthold Asseng; Jody Biggs; Federico Bert; Patrick Bertuzzi; Virender S. Bhatia; Marco Bindi; Ian Broad; Davide Cammarano; Ramiro Carretero; Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha; Uran Chung; Stephanie Debats; Paola Deligios; Giacomo De Sanctis; Thanda Dhliwayo; Benjamin Dumont; Lyndon Estes; Frank Ewert; Roberto Ferrise; Thomas Gaiser; Guillermo García; Sika Gbegbelegbe; Vellingiri Geethalakshmi; Edward Gerardeaux; Richard Goldberg; Brian Grant; Edgardo Guevara; Jonathan Hickman; Holger Hoffmann; Huanping Huang; Jamshad Hussain; Flavio Barbosa Justino; Asha S. Karunaratne; Ann-Kristin Koehler; Patrice Kouakou; Soora Naresh Kumar; Arunachalam Lakshmanan; Mark Lieffering; Xiaomao Lin; Qunying Luo; Graciela Magrin; Marco Mancini; Fabio Ricardo Marin; Anna Dalla Marta; Yuji Masutomi; Theodoros Mavromatis; Greg McLean; Santiago Meira; Monoranjan Mohanty; Marco Moriondo; Wajid Nasim; Lamyaa Negm; Francesca Orlando; Simone Orlandini; Isik Ozturk; Helena Maria Soares Pinto; Guillermo Podesta; Zhiming Qi; Johanna Ramarohetra; Muhammad Habib Ur Rahman; Helene Raynal; Gabriel Rodriguez; Reimund Rötter; Vaishali Sharda; Lu Shuo; Ward Smith; Val Snow; Afshin Soltani; K. Srinivas; Benjamin Sultan; Dillip Kumar Swain; Fulu Tao; Kindie Tesfaye; Maria I. Travasso; Giacomo Trombi; Alex Topaj; Eline Vanuytrecht; Federico E. Viscarra; Syed Aftab Wajid; Enli Wang; Hong Wang; Jing Wang; Erandika Wijekoon; Lee Byun-Woo; Yang Xiaoguang; Ban Ho Young; Jin I. Yun; Zhigan Zhao; Lareef Zubair. 2015. "The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols." Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems , no. : 191-220.
Conservation agriculture (CA) is being promoted as an option for reducing soil degradation, conserving water, enhancing crop productivity, and maintaining yield stability. However, CA is a knowledge- and technology-intensive practice, and may not be feasible or may not perform better than conventional agriculture under all conditions and farming systems. Using high resolution (≈1 km(2)) biophysical and socioeconomic geospatial data, this study identified potential recommendation domains (RDs) for CA in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi. The biophysical variables used were soil texture, surface slope, and rainfall while the socioeconomic variables were market access and human and livestock population densities. Based on feasibility and comparative performance of CA over conventional agriculture, the biophysical and socioeconomic factors were first used to classify cultivated areas into three biophysical and three socioeconomic potential domains, respectively. Combinations of biophysical and socioeconomic domains were then used to develop potential RDs for CA based on adoption potential within the cultivated areas. About 39, 12, and 5% of the cultivated areas showed high biophysical and socioeconomic potential while 50, 39, and 21% of the cultivated areas showed high biophysical and medium socioeconomic potential for CA in Malawi, Kenya, and Ethiopia, respectively. The results indicate considerable acreages of land with high CA adoption potential in the mixed crop-livestock systems of the studied countries. However, there are large differences among countries depending on biophysical and socio-economic conditions. The information generated in this study could be used for targeting CA and prioritizing CA-related agricultural research and investment priorities in the three countries.
Kindie Tesfaye; Moti Jaleta; Pradyot Ranjan Jena; Munyaradzi Mutenje. Identifying Potential Recommendation Domains for Conservation Agriculture in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi. Environmental Management 2014, 55, 330 -346.
AMA StyleKindie Tesfaye, Moti Jaleta, Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Munyaradzi Mutenje. Identifying Potential Recommendation Domains for Conservation Agriculture in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi. Environmental Management. 2014; 55 (2):330-346.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKindie Tesfaye; Moti Jaleta; Pradyot Ranjan Jena; Munyaradzi Mutenje. 2014. "Identifying Potential Recommendation Domains for Conservation Agriculture in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi." Environmental Management 55, no. 2: 330-346.