Markov state models of molecular kinetics (MSMs), in which the long-time statistical dynamics of a molecule is approximated by a Markov chain on a discrete partition of configuration space, have seen widespread use in recent years. This approach has many appealing characteristics compared to straightforward molecular dynamics simulation and analysis, including the potential to mitigate the sampling problem by extracting long-time kinetic information from short trajectories and the ability to straightforwardly calculate expectation values and statistical uncertainties of various stationary and dynamical molecular observables. In this paper, we summarize the current state of the art in generation and validation of MSMs and give some important new results. We describe an upper bound for the approximation error made by modeling molecular dynamics with a MSM and we show that this error can be made arbitrarily small with surprisingly little effort. In contrast to previous practice, it becomes clear that the best MSM is not obtained by the most metastable discretization, but the MSM can be much improved if non-metastable states are introduced near the transition states. Moreover, we show that it is not necessary to resolve all slow processes by the state space partitioning, but individual dynamical processes of interest can be resolved separately. We also present an efficient estimator for reversible transition matrices and a robust test to validate that a MSM reproduces the kinetics of the molecular dynamics data.

Markov (state) models (MSMs) have attracted a lot of interest recently as they (1) can probe long-term molecular kinetics based on short-time simulations, (2) offer a way to analyze great amounts of simulation data with relatively little subjectivity of the analyst, (3) provide insight into microscopic quantities such as the ensemble of transition pathways, and (4) allow simulation data to be reconciled with measurement data in a rigorous and explicit way. Here we sketch our current perspective of Markov models and explain in short their theoretical basis and assumptions. We describe transition path theory which allows the entire ensemble of protein folding pathways to be investigated and that combines naturally with Markov models. Experimental observations can be naturally linked to Markov models with the dynamical fingerprint theory, by which experimentally observable timescales can be equipped with an understanding of the structural rearrangement processes that take place at these timescales. The concepts of this paper are illustrated by a simple kinetic model of protein folding.

The identification of metastable states of a molecule plays an important role in the interpretation of molecular simulation data because the free-energy surface, the relative populations in this landscape, and ultimately also the dynamics of the molecule under study can be described in terms of these states. We compare the results of three different geometric cluster algorithms (neighbor algorithm, K-medoids algorithm, and common-nearest-neighbor algorithm) among each other and to the results of a kinetic cluster algorithm. First, we demonstrate the characteristics of each of the geometric cluster algorithms using five two-dimensional data sets. Second, we analyze the molecular dynamics data of a β-heptapeptide in methanol—a molecule that exhibits a distinct folded state, a structurally diverse unfolded state, and a fast folding/unfolding equilibrium—using both geometric and kinetic cluster algorithms. We find that geometric clustering strongly depends on the algorithm used and that the density based common-nearest-neighbor algorithm is the most robust of the three geometric cluster algorithms with respect to variations in the input parameters and the distance metric. When comparing the geometric cluster results to the metastable states of the β-heptapeptide as identified by kinetic clustering, we find that in most cases the folded state is identified correctly but the overlap of geometric clusters with further metastable states is often at best approximate.

We have developed a hidden Markov model and optimization procedure for photon-based single-molecule FRET data, which takes into account the trace-dependent background intensities. This analysis technique reveals an unprecedented amount of detail in the folding kinetics of the Diels–Alderase ribozyme. We find a multitude of extended (low-FRET) and compact (high-FRET) states. Five states were consistently and independently identified in two FRET constructs and at three Mg²⁺ concentrations. Structures generally tend to become more compact upon addition of Mg²⁺. Some compact structures are observed to significantly depend on Mg²⁺ concentration, suggesting a tertiary fold stabilized by Mg²⁺ ions. One compact structure was observed to be Mg²⁺-independent, consistent with stabilization by tertiary Watson–Crick base pairing found in the folded Diels–Alderase structure. A hierarchy of time scales was discovered, including dynamics of 10 ms or faster, likely due to tertiary structure fluctuations, and slow dynamics on the seconds time scale, presumably associated with significant changes in secondary structure. The folding pathways proceed through a series of intermediate secondary structures. There exist both compact pathways and more complex ones, which display tertiary unfolding, then secondary refolding, and, subsequently, again tertiary refolding.