Introduction: Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.Results: The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km², accounting for 0.48% of China’s land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km²), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km²) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km²) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km²) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km²), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km²), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km²) prefecture-level cities.Discussion: In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.

Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27°–47° N and 73°–115° E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 × 10⁴ km², and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 × 10⁴ km²), Gansu (9.40 × 10⁴ km²), Ningxia (5.07 × 10⁴ km²), Qinghai (4.10 × 10⁴ km²), and Xinjiang (3.97 × 10⁴ km²) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245–2050s and SSP370–2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370–2050s and SSP585–2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.

Background: The gall midge, Gephyraulus lycantha Jiao & Kolesik (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), causes abnormal enlargement of goji berry, Lycium barbarum L, buds during its larval stage, forming galls and resulting in a significantly decrease in yield in China. Identifying the distribution of the midge in China under current and future climate change scenarios will provide guidance for the scientific prevention and control of this pest. Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential suitable habitats for the midge in China based on the filtered 56 distribution points and 11 environmental factors, and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region. Results: The results showed that when the parameters were feature combination (FC) = HP and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature of driest quarter (suitable range was -9.36–4.43 °C) was the most critical factor influencing the distribution of the midge. Under current climate conditions, the area of suitable habitat for the midge was 112.73 × 10 ⁴ km ² , primarily distributed in Xinjiang (29.03 × 10 ⁴ km ² ), Inner Mongolia (26.44 × 10 ⁴ km ² ), Gansu (18.36 × 10 ⁴ km ² ), Qinghai (10.46 × 10 ⁴ km ² ), and Ningxia (3.90 × 10 ⁴ km ² ) Provinces. Under the 2050s and 2070s climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats was larger than current ones (except for SSP126), reaching its maximum under the SSP585 (119.06 × 10 ⁴ km ² ) and SSP245 scenarios (135.25 × 10 ⁴ km ² ), respectively. Conclusion: In addition, climate warming would cause the suitable habitat of the midge to expand northeastward. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen monitoring, early warning, and control measures for the pest to ensure the production of goji berry.