The magnitude of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has an enormous impact on the social life and the economic activities in almost every country in the world. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also govern the extent of the coronavirus disease spread in the population. Consequently, there is an active debate regarding the critical socio-economic determinants that contribute to the resulting pandemic. In this paper, we contribute towards the resolution of the debate by leveraging Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate the potential of 35 determinants, describing a diverse set of socio-economic characteristics, in explaining the coronavirus pandemic outcome.

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is interpreted as Brownian motion in a harmonic potential. This Gaussian Markov process has a bounded variance and admits a stationary probability distribution, in contrast to the standard Brownian motion. It also tends to a drift towards its mean function, and such a process is called mean reverting. Two examples of the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process are considered. In the first one, we study the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on a comb model, as an example of the harmonically bounded random motion in the topologically constrained geometry. The main dynamical characteristics (as the first and the second moments) and the probability density function are studied in the framework of both the Langevin stochastic equation and the Fokker-Planck equation. The second example is devoted to the study of the effects of stochastic resetting on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, including stochastic resetting in the comb geometry. Here the nonequilibrium stationary state is the main question in task, where the two divergent forces, namely, the resetting and the drift towards the mean, lead to compelling results in the cases of both the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with resetting and its generalization on the two-dimensional comb structure.

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O-U) process with resetting is considered as the anomalous transport taking place on a three-dimensional comb. The three-dimensional comb is a comb inside a comb structure, consisting of backbones and fingers in the following geometrical correspondence x–backbone →y–fingers–backbone →z–fingers. Realisation of the O-U process on the three-dimensional comb leads to anomalous (non-Markovian) diffusion. This specific anomalous transport in the presence of resets results in non-equilibrium stationary states. Explicit analytical expressions for the mean values and the mean squared displacements along all three directions of the comb are obtained and verified numerically. The marginal probability density functions for each direction are obtained numerically by Monte Carlo simulation of a random transport described by a system of coupled Langevin equations for the comb geometry.

The time irreversibility of a dynamical process refers to the phenomenon where its behaviour or statistical properties change when it is observed under a time-reversal operation, i.e., backwards in time and indicates the presence of an “arrow of time”. It is an important feature of both synthetic and real-world systems, as it represents a macroscopic property that describes the mechanisms driving the dynamics at a microscale level and that stems from non-linearities and the presence of non-conservative forces within them. While many alternatives have been proposed in recent decades to assess this feature in experimental time series, the evaluation of their performance is hindered by the lack of benchmark time series of known reversibility. To solve this problem, we here propose and evaluate the use of a geometric Brownian motion model with stochastic resetting. We specifically use synthetic time series generated with this model to evaluate eight irreversibility tests in terms of sensitivity with respect to several characteristics, including their degree of irreversibility and length. We show how tests yield at times contradictory results, including the false detection of irreversible dynamics in time-reversible systems with a frequency higher than expected by chance and how most of them detect a multi-scale irreversibility structure that is not present in the underlying data.