The quantitative assessment of the impact of vegetation restoration on evapotranspiration and its components is of great significance in developing sustainable ecological restoration strategies for water resources in a given region. In this study, we used the Priestley-Taylor Jet Pro-pulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) to simulate the ET components in the Helong section (HLS) of the Yellow River basin. The effects of vegetation restoration on ET and its components, vegetation transpiration (Et), soil evaporation (Es), and canopy interception evaporation (Ei) were separated by manipulating model variables. Our findings are as follows: (1) The simulation results are compared with the ET calculated by water balance and the annual average ET of MODIS products. The R² of the validation results are 0.61 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that the PT-JPL model tracks the change in ET in the HLS well. During 2000–2018, the ET, Ei, and Es increased at a rate of 1.33, 0.87, and 2.99 mm/a, respectively, while the Et decreased at a rate of 2.52 mm/a. (2) Vegetation restoration increased the annual ET in the region from 331.26 mm (vegetation-unchanged scenario) to 338.85 mm (vegetation change scenario) during the study period, an increase of 2.3%. (3) TMP (temperature) and VPD (vapor pressure deficit) were the dominant factors affecting ET changes in most areas of the HLS. In more than 37.2% of the HLS, TMP dominated the change affecting ET, and vapor pressure difference (VPD) dominated the area affecting ET in 30.5% of the HLS. Overall, the precipitation (PRE) and VPD were the main factors affecting ET changes. Compared with previous studies that directly explore the relationship between many influencing factors and ET results through correlation research methods, our study uses control variables to obtain results under two different scenarios and then performs difference analysis. This method can reduce the excessive interference of influencing factors other than vegetation changes on the research results. Our findings can provide strategic support for future water resource management and sustainable vegetation restoration in the HLS region.

The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP) region in northern China, a critical ecological zone, has experienced significant changes in vegetation coverage and water availability under climate change. However, a comprehensive understanding of how vegetation growth responds to both water deficit and surplus remains limited. This study systematically assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation responses to atmospheric water constraints (represented by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and soil moisture constraints (represented by the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI)) across the TNSFP region from 2001 to 2022. Our results revealed a compound water constraint pattern: soil moisture deficit dominated vegetation limitation across 46.41–67.88% of the region, particularly in the middle (28–100 cm) and deep (100–289 cm) layers, while atmospheric water surplus also substantially affected 37.35% of the area. From 2001 to 2022, vegetation has shown weakening correlations with atmospheric and shallow-soil moisture, but strengthening coupling with middle- and deep-soil moisture, indicating a growing dependence on deep water resources. Furthermore, the response times of vegetation to water deficit and water surplus have been reduced, indicating that vegetation growth was increasingly restricted by water deficit while being less constrained by water surplus during the period. Attribution analysis identified that air temperature exerted a stronger influence than precipitation on vegetation–water relationships over the study period. This study improved the understanding of vegetation–water interactions under combined climate and land use change, providing critical scientific support for land use-targeted adaptive management in arid and semi-arid regions.

Within the Earth’s terrestrial environment, evapotranspiration significantly contributes to the hydrological cycle, accounting for around 80% of the precipitation on landmasses to be reintroduced into the atmosphere. This mechanism profoundly affects the distribution and availability of surface water resources throughout the ecosystem. Gaining insight into the factors influencing local evapotranspiration fluctuations in response to varying climatic and vegetative scenarios is crucial for effective water management strategies and rehabilitating ecosystem resilience. To this end, our study focuses on the Jing River Basin in the Loess Plateau, utilizing multi-source remote sensing data and climatic information to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of evapotranspiration from 1984 to 2018 through the application of the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. Our research results indicate a general ascending tendency in evapotranspiration across the investigated region, demonstrating a notably discernible escalation at a pace of approximately 3.11 mm/year (p < 0.01), with an annual vegetation ET volume reaching 533.88 mm. Across different vegetation types in the Jing River Basin between 1984 and 2018, the mean yearly ET was observed to be highest in forests (572.88 mm), followed by croplands (564.74 mm), shrublands (536.43 mm), and grasslands (503.42 mm). The leaf area index (LAI) demonstrated the strongest partial correlation with ET (r = 0.35) and contributed the most significantly to the variation in ET within the Jing River Basin (0.41 mm/year). Additionally, LAI indirectly influences ET through its impact on vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation (Pre), and temperature (Temp). Radiation is found to govern most ET changes across the region, while radiation and precipitation notably affected ET by modulating air temperature. In summary, these radiant energy changes directly affect the evaporation rate and total evapotranspiration of surface water. It provides important support for understanding how evapotranspiration in the Jing River Basin is adjusting to climate change and increased vegetation cover. These findings serve as a theoretical foundation for devising sustainable vegetation restoration strategies to optimize water resource utilization within the region.

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a key indicator of carbon–water coupling in ecosystems under climate change. While WUE responses to meteorological droughts are well-documented, the influence of different soil layers on WUE across vegetation types in water-limited regions remains unclear. Based on ERA5-Land soil moisture and MODIS vegetation products, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in soil moisture indices (SSMI) across three soil layers and their synchronous, lagged, and cumulative associations with WUE and resilience in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP) region from 2001 to 2022. Our results showed that while the shallow and middle layers exhibited general wetting trends, the deep soil layer (100–289 cm) underwent continuous depletion in 56.01% of the study area. WUE showed weak synchronous responses to soil moisture drought across all layers, with no significant threshold effect. However, the lag and cumulative associations increased with soil depth, from 3–6 months in shallow layers to 9–12 months in deep layers, suggesting that deep-layer soil moisture may reflect longer-term ecohydrological stress and delayed ecosystem responses. Ecological resilience (R_d) differed by vegetation type. Grasslands were resilient to shallow drought but vulnerable to deep moisture deficits, while forests maintained stability under deep stress. These findings emphasize the importance of aligning vegetation configuration with soil water availability in restoration efforts, providing critical insights for sustainable water resource management and forest rehabilitation.

Arid regions are ecologically fragile and occupy a substantial portion of the global terrestrial surface. In these regions, ecosystem services (ESs) are strongly constrained by water availability and, more importantly, by the balance between water supply and demand. However, the nonlinear responses and threshold mechanisms linking water supply–demand balance to ES dynamics remain unclear. Taking the Kubuqi Desert in the “Great Bend” of the Yellow River as the study area, this study quantified the Comprehensive Ecosystem Service Index (CESI) and the Water Supply–Demand Ratio (WSDR) by integrating the InVEST model, RWEQ model, the RUSLE model, Water Balance Method, and so on. The dual-constraint line method and elasticity coefficient approach were integrated to identify the constraint effects and critical thresholds of WSDR on CESI. Ecological management zones were further delineated by integrating the inflection-point intervals of the dual-constraint lines with the threshold intervals identified by elasticity coefficients. The results showed that CESI remained relatively low, with a maximum value of approximately 0.5, suggesting that the overall ES level was still limited, but exhibited a continuous increasing trend. The regional water supply–demand pattern gradually shifted from deficit toward relative balance, although agricultural water use still accounted for about three-quarters of total consumption. CESI showed a nonlinear threshold response to WSDR: mild water deficit suppressed CESI growth, whereas moderate water surplus promoted CESI recovery by alleviating water constraints and improving ecosystem functioning. Thresholds identified by elasticity coefficients mainly occurred near critical transitions between water deficit and surplus. Based on ES supply and threshold sensitivity, nine ecological management zones were identified, with priority enhancement areas accounting for approximately 75%. These findings provide a threshold-based basis for ecological zoning and differentiated restoration in arid regions.