Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality. Methods and findings: Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population. Conclusions: Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic’s harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: With nearly 90% of annual hypertension-related deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is an urgent need to measure the coverage of health services that effectively manage hypertension. However, there is little agreement on how to define effective coverage and the existing hypertension care cascade (hypertension prevalence, percent aware, percent treated, and percent controlled) does not account for the quality of care received by patients. This study reviews definitions of effective coverage and service quality for hypertension management services and proposes an expanded hypertension care cascade to improve measurement of health systems performance. Methods: A systematic scoping review of literature published in six electronic databases between January 2000 and October 2020 identified studies that defined effective coverage of hypertension management services or integrated dimensions of service quality into population-based estimates of hypertension management in LMICs. Findings informed an expanded hypertension care cascade from which quality-adjusted service coverage can be calculated to approximate effective coverage. Results: The review identified 18 relevant studies, including 6 that defined effective coverage for hypertension management services and 12 that reported a measure of service quality in a population-based study. Based on commonly reported barriers to hypertension management, new steps on the proposed expanded care cascade include (i) population screened, (ii) population linked to quality care, and (iii) population adhering to prescribed treatment. Conclusion: There is little consensus on the definition of effective coverage of hypertension management services, and most studies do not describe the quality of hypertension management services provided to populations. Incorporating aspects of service quality to the hypertension care cascade allows for the calculation of quality-adjusted coverage of relevant services, enabling an appropriate measurement of health systems performance through effective coverage.

Responsive primary health-care facilities are the foundation of resilient health systems, yet little is known about facility-level processes that contribute to the continuity of essential services during a crisis. This paper describes the aspects of primary health-care facility resilience to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in eight countries. Rapid-cycle phone surveys were conducted with health facility managers in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guatemala, Guinea, Liberia, Malawi and Nigeria between August 2020 and December 2021. Responses were mapped to a validated health facility resilience framework and coded as binary variables for whether a facility demonstrated capacity in eight areas: removing barriers to accessing services, infection control, workforce, surge capacity, financing, critical infrastructure, risk communications, and medical supplies and equipment. These self-reported capacities were summarized nationally and validated with the ministries of health. The analysis of service volume data determined the outcome: maintenance of essential health services. Of primary health-care facilities, 1,453 were surveyed. Facilities maintained between 84% and 97% of the expected outpatient services, except for Bangladesh, where 69% of the expected outpatient consultations were conducted between March 2020 and December 2021. For Burkina Faso, Chad, Guatemala, Guinea and Nigeria, critical infrastructure was the largest constraint in resilience capabilities (47%, 14%, 51%, 9% and 29% of facilities demonstrated capacity, respectively). Medical supplies and equipment were the largest constraints for Liberia and Malawi (15% and 48% of facilities demonstrating capacity, respectively). In Bangladesh, the largest constraint was workforce and staffing, where 44% of facilities experienced moderate to severe challenges with human resources during the pandemic. The largest constraints in facility resilience during COVID-19 were related to health systems building blocks. These challenges likely existed before the pandemic, suggesting the need for strategic investments and reforms in core capacities of comprehensive primary health-care systems to improve resilience to future shocks.

Despite substantial progress in improving maternal and newborn health, India continues to experience high rates of newborn mortality and stillbirths. One reason may be that many births happen in health facilities that lack advanced services—such as Caesarean section, blood transfusion, or newborn intensive care. Stratification based on pregnancy risk factors is used to guide ‘high-risk’ women to advanced facilities. To assess the utility of risk stratification for guiding the choice of facility, we estimated the frequency of adverse newborn outcomes among women classified as ‘low risk’ in India. We used the 2019–21 Fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5)—India’s Demographic and Health Survey—which includes modules administered to women aged 15–49 years. In addition to pregnancy history and outcomes, the survey collected a range of risk factors, including biomarkers. We used national obstetric risk guidelines to classify women as ‘high risk’ versus ‘low risk’ and assessed the frequency of stillbirths, newborn deaths, and unplanned Caesarean sections for the respondent’s last pregnancy lasting 7 or more months in the past five years. We calculated the proportion of deliveries occurring at non-hospital facilities in all the Indian states. Using data from nearly 176,699 recent pregnancies, we found that 46.6% of India’s newborn deaths and 56.3% of stillbirths were among women who were ‘low risk’ according to national guidelines. Women classified as ‘low risk’ had a Caesarean section rate of 8.4% (95% CI 8.1–8.7%), marginally lower than the national average of 10.0% (95% CI 9.8–10.3%). In India as a whole, 32.0% (95% CI 31.5–32.5%) of deliveries occurred in facilities that were likely to lack advanced services. There was substantial variation across the country, with less than 5% non-hospital public facility deliveries in Punjab, Kerala, and Delhi compared to more than 40% in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Newborn mortality tended to be lower in states with highest hospital delivery rates. Individual risk stratification based on factors identified in pregnancy fails to accurately predict which women will have delivery complications and experience stillbirth and newborn death in India. Thus a determination of ‘low risk’ should not be used to guide women to health facilities lacking key life saving services, including Caesarean section, blood transfusion, and advanced newborn resuscitation and care. 10.13039/100000865 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Bank. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in the paper are entirely those of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Gates Foundation or of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.

Background: Availability and appropriate use of personal protective equipment (PPE) is of particular importance in Low and Middle-Income countries (LMICs) where disease outbreaks other than COVID-19 are frequent and health workers are scarce. This study assesses the availability of necessary PPE items during the COVID-19 pandemic at health facilities in seven LMICs. Methods: Data were collected using a rapid-cycle survey among 1554 health facilities in seven LMICs via phone-based surveys between August 2020 and December 2021. We gathered data on the availability of World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended PPE items and the use of items when examining patients suspected to be infected with COVID-19. We further investigated the implementation of service adaptation measures in a severe shortage of PPE. Results: There were major deficiencies in PPE availability at health facilities. Almost 3 out of 10 health facilities reported a stock-out of medical masks on the survey day. Forty-six percent of facilities did not have respirator masks, and 16% did not have any gloves. We show that only 43% of health facilities had sufficient PPE to comply with WHO guidelines. Even when all items were available, healthcare workers treating COVID-19 suspected patients were reported to wear all the recommended equipment in only 61% of health facilities. We did not find a statistically significant difference in implementing service adaptation measures between facilities experiencing a severe shortage or not. Conclusion: After more than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall availability of PPE remained low in our sample of low and middle-income countries. Although essential, the availability of PPE did not guarantee the proper use of the equipment. The lack of PPE availability and improper use of available PPE enable preventable COVID-19 transmission in health facilities, leading to greater morbidity and mortality and risking the continuity of service delivery by healthcare workers.

Introduction The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic overwhelmed some primary health care (PHC) systems, while others adapted and recovered. In Nigeria, large, within-state variations existed in the ability to maintain PHC service volumes. Identifying characteristics of high-performing local government areas (LGAs) can improve understanding of subnational health systems resilience. Methods Employing a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, we quantitatively identified ‘positive deviant’ LGAs based on their speed of recovery of outpatient and antenatal care services to prepandemic levels using service volume data from Nigeria’s health management information system and matched them to comparators with similar baseline characteristics and slower recoveries. 70 semistructured interviews were conducted with LGA officials, facility officers and community leaders in sampled LGAs to analyse comparisons based on Kruk’s resilience framework. Results A total of 57 LGAs were identified as positive deviants out of 490 eligible LGAs that experienced a temporary decrease in PHC-level outpatient and antenatal care service volumes. Positive deviants had an average of 8.6% higher outpatient service volume than expected, and comparators had 27.1% lower outpatient volume than expected after the initial disruption to services. Informants in 12 positive deviants described health systems that were more integrated, aware and self-regulating than comparator LGAs. Positive deviants were more likely to employ demand-side adaptations, whereas comparators primarily focused on supply-side adaptations. Barriers included long-standing financing and PHC workforce gaps. Conclusion Sufficient flexible financing, adequate PHC staffing and local leadership enabled health systems to recover service volumes during COVID-19. Resilient PHC requires simultaneous attention to bottom-up and top-down capabilities connected by strong leadership.