Zhai, L., Platt, T., Tang, C., Sathyendranath, S., and Hernández Walls, R. 2011. Phytoplankton phenology on the Scotian Shelf. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . The impact of physical forcing on seasonal and interannual phytoplankton dynamics was examined using SeaWiFS chlorophyll, AVHRR sea surface temperature (SST), nitrate, and other hydrographic measurements for the Scotian Shelf and Scotian Slope. The spring bloom was characterized by a shifted Gaussian function fitted to seasonal chlorophyll time-series. The background chlorophyll (a constant term in the Gaussian function) is a joint property of the stratification and bio-optics of the mixed layer. Rapid shoaling of the mixed-layer depth in spring promoted the early spring bloom on the middle Scotian Shelf and Slope, triggered when averaged light in the mixed layer reached 15 W m−2. The duration of the spring bloom was prolonged in slope water, resulting in a discontinuity in duration between the shelf and slope water masses. The position of the latitudinal discontinuity in duration was correlated with that of the shelf–slope front in SST. The amplitude of the spring bloom was correlated with the nitrate inventory in the surface layer at the end of winter. The rate of decrease (increase) in chlorophyll after the spring bloom was related to the depletion (resupply) of nitrate in summer. The position of the shelf–slope front influenced the interannual variability of bloom characteristics.

A shortage of dissolved oxygen in seawater can adversely impact marine life and ecosystems. Low oxygen conditions at depth occur in many coastal regions, driven by both local productivity and remote changes in the source waters. A low‐oxygen dense pool of water is observed every summer over the mid‐shelf off southwest Vancouver Island in the Juan de Fuca Eddy region. We trace the dense pool waters back to their source using Lagrangian Particle tracking in an ocean model. The model accuracy is evaluated against a set of dense observations collected in August 2013. Only locations where the model represents water properties well are used as starting locations for the tracking. These locations are selected using a K‐Means clustering algorithm. Tracking particles backwards in time showed that the low oxygen dense pool is primarily composed of water from the California Undercurrent, shallower water from further offshore of the Washington shelf, and offshore water. Waters from the northern shelf were not a primary source even though summer currents are from the north. Correspondingly, the water primarily arrived in the south Vancouver Island region in spring, months before the cruise. A kernel density estimate shows the final water properties of the dense pool are well represented by this mixture. The dense water pathways up and onto the shelf are primarily through coastal submarine canyons in early summer. Combining high spatial resolution observations, a carefully evaluated numerical model, Lagrangian tracking, and statistical techniques reveal detailed answers not obtainable through a single method.

In the context of Canada’s Ocean Protection Plan (OPP), improved coastal and near-shore modelling is needed to enhance marine safety and emergency response capacity in the aquatic environment. In this study, the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is adopted to develop an ocean forecasting system for Saint John harbour in the Bay of Fundy, on the east coast of Canada. The challenging regional oceanography is characterized by the presence of some of the world’s strongest tides, significant river runoff and complicated geometry. A three-level one-way nesting approach is used to downscale from a 1/12° North Atlantic-Arctic regional model to very-high-resolution port-scale around Saint John harbour. The three nested grids cover the outer shelf, the Bay of Fundy and finally the approach to the harbour with resolutions of 2.5 km, 500 m and 100 m respectively. Due to the lack of accurate runoff data at the Saint John River outlet, the model’s lateral open boundary condition is modified to introduce the river forcing with the observed time series of water level near the mouth of the river. Evaluation with observational data demonstrates the model’s accuracy for the simulation of tidal elevation and currents, non-tidal water level and currents, temperature and salinity. Comparison with the observed sea surface temperature demonstrates the improved model accuracy through increasing the horizontal resolution. Virtual Lagrangian trajectories computed using the modelled surface currents and including wind effects show good agreement with the observed trajectories of different types of surface drifters. This study demonstrates the capability of the NEMO modelling framework to provide very-high-resolution modelling at port-scale resolution for the Saint John harbour.

A storm surge hindcast for the west coast of Canada was generated for the period 1980–2016 using a 2D nonlinear barotropic Princeton Ocean Model forced by hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wind and sea level pressure. Validation of the modeled storm surges using tide gauge records has indicated that there are extensive areas of the British Columbia coast where the model does not capture the processes that determine the sea level variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Some of the discrepancies are linked to large-scale fluctuations, such as those arising from major El Niño and La Niña events. By applying an adjustment to the hindcast using an ocean reanalysis product that incorporates large-scale sea level variability and steric effects, the variance of the error of the adjusted surges is significantly reduced (by up to 50%) compared to that of surges from the barotropic model. The importance of baroclinic dynamics and steric effects to accurate storm surge forecasting in this coastal region is demonstrated, as is the need to incorporate decadal-scale, basin-specific oceanic variability into the estimation of extreme coastal sea levels. The results improve long-term extreme water level estimates and allowances for the west coast of Canada in the absence of long-term tide gauge records data.

The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) is an important component of the hydrodynamic system and it significantly impacts the primary production of the Yellow Sea. This study investigated the difference in the interannual variability and long-term trends between the northern YSCWM (NYSCWM) and southern YSCWM (SYSCWM), and explored the main physical environmental factors that led to their inconsistency using multiple wavelet coherence. On the interannual scale, the intensities of the NYSCWM and SYSCWM exhibited consistent variability, but the intensity of the SYSCWM had a larger standard deviation and longer periodic signal than that of the NYSCWM. The two-factor combination of surface air temperature (SAT)–Niño 3.4 in the NYSCWM and sea surface temperature (SST)–northward seawater velocity (Vgos) in the SYSCWM controlled the interannual variability, which meant the influencing intensity variability differed in the NYSCWM and SYSCWM. In the long-term trend, the intensities of the NYSCWM and SYSCWM both showed decreasing trends during the study period. However, the enhanced circulation provided more horizontal heat input into the SYSCWM, and the relatively higher increase in SST and decrease in the amplitude of variation in the thermocline depth promoted vertical heat exchange in the SYSCWM, thereby making the intensity of the SYSCWM decrease more quickly than that of the NYSCWM. These findings provide important references that facilitate a deeper understanding of the influence of hydrological processes on marine ecosystems in marginal seas.

The oceanography sub-initiative of Canada’s Oceans Protection Plan was tasked to develop high-resolution nearshore ocean models for enhanced marine safety and emergency response, fitting into the multi-scale, multi-level nested operational ocean forecasting systems. For decision making on eventual 24/7 operational support, two ocean models (a structured grid model, NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean); and an unstructured grid model, FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model), were evaluated. The evaluation process includes the selection of the study area, the requirements for model setup, and the evaluation metrics. The chosen study area, Saint John Harbour in the Bay of Fundy, features strong tides, significant river runoff and a narrow tidal-river channel. Both models were configured with the same sources of bathymetry and forcing data. FVCOM achieved 50-100 m horizontal resolution in the inner harbour and included wetting/drying. NEMO achieved 100 m resolution in the harbour with a three-level one-way nesting configuration. Statistical metrics showed that one-year simulations with both models achieved comparable accuracies against the observed tidal and non-tidal water levels and currents, temperature and salinity, and the trajectories of surface drifters, but the computational cost of FVCOM was significantly less than that of NEMO.